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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

I am so hoping yall get some snow from this one. EURO looks like its been trending closer and closer to the GFS as we get closer to the event. NE folks are holding on for dear life.
 
Becoming pretty clear mid level capture of the surface cyclone will not happen until well north of our latitude. Weenie runs showed the capture underway and bombo commencing wholesale before HAT. Still some volatility in solutions but things appear to be settling down. We are still 60+hrs out and almost at the threshold for CAMs, something to note.
 
Nice snippet from GSP.

If anything, a consensus of guidance tends to be
trending slightly upward over the Piedmont...generally in the solid
.20-.30 range, with the only question being how much of that would
fall in frozen form. With the expectation of an initial period of
rain cutting into the snowfall potential, it still appears that
.5-1.0 inch of snow is a good bet over much of the NC foothills and
Piedmont into the eastern Piedmont of SC. Having said that, heavier
precip rates could force a changeover to snow quicker than we are
currently anticipating, and a solid Winter Wx Advisory-level
snowfall is very much within the realm of possibility, especially in
light of how guidance is trending.
 
Interesting from RAH NWS, they just won't let it go will they lol. My my how these systems change and never ever end up as first modeled.

However, it is also important to note, deep f-gen forcing and the
presence of CSI suggest favorable conditions for mesoscale snow
bands to develop and spread east across central NC Friday night.
Furthermore, intense dynamic cooling aloft will result in a sharp
increase in snow/liquid ratios(SLR) on the order of 15-17:1)
during that same time frame. These ingredients could result in the
potential for some very localized/very focused higher snowfall
amounts, quite possibly even warning criteria (>=3"). While it`s
very difficult to know exactly where these bands will set up, the
greatest potential is across the northern Piedmont and northern
coastal plain counties.
 
metwannabe said:
Interesting from RAH NWS, they just won't let it go will they lol. My my how these systems change and never ever end up as first modeled.

However, it is also important to note, deep f-gen forcing and the
presence of CSI suggest favorable conditions for mesoscale snow
bands to develop and spread east across central NC Friday night.
Furthermore, intense dynamic cooling aloft will result in a sharp
increase in snow/liquid ratios(SLR) on the order of 15-17:1)
during that same time frame. These ingredients could result in the
potential for some very localized/very focused higher snowfall
amounts, quite possibly even warning criteria (>=3"). While it`s
very difficult to know exactly where these bands will set up, the
greatest potential is across the northern Piedmont and northern
coastal plain counties.
Click to expand...
This is a boggling concept to me.. temps should be similar to if not a bit higher than last event during snowfall probably 29-31 I would say in the “thick” of whatever comes.. so how can snow ratios be higher in this event than last?? I assume it’s dynamics above our heads and the potential for the column to crash so rapidly is causing an intense snow liquid ratio .. I just don’t understand the process that well
 
metwannabe said:
Interesting from RAH NWS, they just won't let it go will they lol. My my how these systems change and never ever end up as first modeled.

However, it is also important to note, deep f-gen forcing and the
presence of CSI suggest favorable conditions for mesoscale snow
bands to develop and spread east across central NC Friday night.
Furthermore, intense dynamic cooling aloft will result in a sharp
increase in snow/liquid ratios(SLR) on the order of 15-17:1)
during that same time frame. These ingredients could result in the
potential for some very localized/very focused higher snowfall
amounts, quite possibly even warning criteria (>=3"). While it`s
very difficult to know exactly where these bands will set up, the
greatest potential is across the northern Piedmont and northern
coastal plain counties.
Click to expand...
I was told that it was a low ratio snow despite the upper levels clearly supporting a high ratio snow.
 
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