Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NCSNOW]

View attachment 110363This is even better than 00z

I thought so to, espeacilly down over south Ga,North Florida. Didnt necessarily help reflect with precip back in land on surface though

 

[Cary_Snow95]

To me it seemed that there was more energy in the sw portion of the trough

 

[NCSNOW]

I don't know why, but this is intriguing to me, and I like seeing it. It makes me feel like something's up.

View attachment 110365

Thats where main low is bombing. Drops like 20mb in 3 hours at 0z and 12z. Oh to have it do that 100 miles futher s or sw.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Don’t sleep on these bands associated with the large amounts of dCVA/DPVA with the N/S trough digging in. these can drop a decent 1-2” event View attachment 110360View attachment 110359View attachment 110361

Yeah and if the globals are already latching onto to this idea, be interested to see the mesoscales get into range.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Anyone have the CIPS for snowfall today? I saw some people talking about it yesterday in here

 

[CaryWx]

Thats where main low is bombing. Drops like 20mb in 3 hours at 0z and 12z. Oh to have it do that 100 miles futher s or se.

Well, southwest really

 

[NCSNOW]

To me it seemed that there was more energy in the sw portion of the trough

If that hour 84 frame was back to just pensacola, prefeardly mobile bay. That would end result in dragging those bright colors on the clown back sw. 30 to 40 would be over NE NC, SE VA. We"d all get in the purples for sure

 

[Rain Cold]

Thats where main low is bombing. Drops like 20mb in 3 hours at 0z and 12z. Oh to have it do that 100 miles futher s or sw.

Yep...usually don't see that with the little ones...at least not that I recall.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yep...usually don't see that with the little ones...at least not that I recall.

Convective feedback issues?

 

[BullCityWx]

Anyone have the CIPS for snowfall today? I saw some people talking about it yesterday in here

1. 19930116/1200
2. 20040218/0000
3. 19820213/0600
4. 20101219/0600
5. 19870126/0600
6. 19931223/1200
7. 19800302/0600
8. 20101226/1200
9. 19970211/0000
10. 19860225/0000
11. 20100203/0000
12. 20020103/0600
13. 19950130/1200
14. 19981226/1200
15. 19830106/0000

 

[Rain Cold]

Convective feedback issues?

Not sure, to be honest. I doubt that's it, but it could be, I guess.

 

[NCSNOW]

Yep...usually don't see that with the little ones...at least not that I recall.

Isnt this usually the timeframe you see a pivot, right when trough goes neg tilt and everything is consolidating, rapidly deepening.

 

[BullCityWx]

We're running out of time for this to trend into what we saw the other day, for certain. We're probably all the way done with that look.

I do think there's time for the triangle and points N&E to improve.

 

[KyloG]

When you have the ARPEGE on your side it usually works out...?‍

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Realistically how much more energy needs to be deposited in the base of the trough to close it off

 

[griteater]

When you have the ARPEGE on your side it usually works out...?‍


View attachment 110370

View attachment 110369

A slowing / deepening / closing off of the trough obviously helps to keep the backside flakes flying longer....now to get that process occurring earlier to help with the front side

Trend on last 5 12z / 00z Euro runs:

 

[SD]

Realistically how much more energy needs to be deposited in the base of the trough to close it off

Euro is closed but we need this about 100 miles SW

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro is closed but we need this about 100 miles SWView attachment 110373

12z yesterday had it in central VA so it’s in the move at least

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro is closed but we need this about 100 miles SWView attachment 110373