Yeah the rgem shows my concern here that we just go flurries and cold.Yeah for real. Rgem nees to sharpen up. There's time.
I like being on the line of snowstorm and light event 48+ hours out .. there’s always a NW jog by go time .. we sit patientlyYeah the rgem shows my concern here that we just go flurries and cold.
Pretty easy to see it’s all about the speed of the system and if H5 is amplified enough.Same time NAM vs RGEM:
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We literally just went through nearly this exact scenario. It wasnt even a week ago.I almost like being too far west right now, how many times have we been burned by being in the bullseye at this stage? Northwest trend is almost a given just how much?
There's always a NW trend until there isn't right? The nam probably has the overall precip shield more correct but it's probably too high on qpf and overall coverage. Until we find a way to really bomb out at the latitude of ILM or south I have a hard time seeing a large snow hereI like being on the line of snowstorm and light event 48+ hours out .. there’s always a NW jog by go time .. we sit patiently
A west trend is far from guaranteed here. The west trend will have everything to do if the phase occurs soon enough and if energy in the SW can move eastward. None of the Models outside of the NAM really that much hope for areas outside of NE North Carolina and points north for there.I almost like being too far west right now, how many times have we been burned by being in the bullseye at this stage? Northwest trend is almost a given just how much?
Yeah it might time to move on. I did say wait until the energy gets sampled first,but with those sort of trends,I really don't see much hope for anyone outside of NE North Carolina and points north and even those areas might not be looking a big storm if we keep trending in this direction.GFS isn't going to end well:
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When I say west I mean a few counties not states.A west trend is far from guaranteed here. The west trend will have everything to do if the phase occurs soon enough and if energy in the SW can move eastward. None of the Models outside of the NAM really that much hope for areas outside of NE North Carolina and points north for there.
It kinda struck me like that, almost like a B.Why is there a dry slot. Transition to coastal?
The biggest thing that sticks out to me about those is that most seem to support the idea that the EURO has been showing for several days now of the upper trough induced back side for the Piedmont… there would likely be convective pockets within that with very intense rates… perhaps similar to February 2013![]()
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Even the later phased members, have that bandThe biggest thing that sticks out to me about those is that most seem to support the idea that the EURO has been showing for several days now of the upper trough induced back side for the Piedmont… there would likely be convective pockets within that with very intense rates… perhaps similar to February 2013
The biggest thing that sticks out to me about those is that most seem to support the idea that the EURO has been showing for several days now of the upper trough induced back side for the Piedmont… there would likely be convective pockets within that with very intense rates… perhaps similar to February 2013
I think that’s a reasonable expectation at this point, but we certainly need to watch the Hi-res to see if they start picking up on convection in that backside stuffHonestly we’re just seeing the windsheild wiper effect atp on models, seeing ticks back and fourth, but I like the euro here in this setup, models are converging on the euro look. perhaps 1-2 for the Lee side band and a bit more in E/NE NC
Kind of. For central nc though the gfs and NAM’s from last night is what we needed. Stronger closed off energy with the low tucked right offshore. We are quickly losing any hope of thatHonestly we’re just seeing the windsheild wiper effect atp on models, seeing ticks back and fourth, but I like the euro here in this setup, models are converging on the euro look. perhaps 1-2 for the Lee side band and a bit more in E/NE NC
If i could place a low where most of NC got good snow thats where i would put it. Last storm we had some really good last minute changes. I imagine things will be somewhat different at 18z and by 6Z tomorrow different still.
With such a sensitive set up you can’t just look at one run and think it’s 100% the right answer .. windshield wiper effect is always happening especially for a storm more than 2 days away .. we’re not going to get a pants bursting run every 6 hours especially when the H5 can take small steps in any direction and cause major impacts .. we will bring you up from the cliff in 24 hoursKind of. For central nc though the gfs and NAM’s from last night is what we needed. Stronger closed off energy with the low tucked right offshore. We are quickly losing any hope of that
last weds we saw something similar with trends east and i thought we had no shot, and then thurs and friday things trended back quickly.With such a sensitive set up you can’t just look at one run and think it’s 100% the right answer .. windshield wiper effect is always happening especially for a storm more than 2 days away .. we’re not going to get a pants bursting run every 6 hours especially when the H5 can take small steps in any direction and cause major impacts .. we will bring you up from the cliff in 24 hours