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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Heelyes said:
I almost like being too far west right now, how many times have we been burned by being in the bullseye at this stage? Northwest trend is almost a given just how much?
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We literally just went through nearly this exact scenario. It wasnt even a week ago.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I like being on the line of snowstorm and light event 48+ hours out .. there’s always a NW jog by go time .. we sit patiently
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There's always a NW trend until there isn't right? The nam probably has the overall precip shield more correct but it's probably too high on qpf and overall coverage. Until we find a way to really bomb out at the latitude of ILM or south I have a hard time seeing a large snow here
 
GFS isn't going to end well:
gfs_z500_vort_us_8.png
 
Heelyes said:
I almost like being too far west right now, how many times have we been burned by being in the bullseye at this stage? Northwest trend is almost a given just how much?
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A west trend is far from guaranteed here. The west trend will have everything to do if the phase occurs soon enough and if energy in the SW can move eastward. None of the Models outside of the NAM really that much hope for areas outside of NE North Carolina and points north for there.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
GFS isn't going to end well:
gfs_z500_vort_us_8.png
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Yeah it might time to move on. I did say wait until the energy gets sampled first,but with those sort of trends,I really don't see much hope for anyone outside of NE North Carolina and points north and even those areas might not be looking a big storm if we keep trending in this direction.
 
Faco Thomas said:
A west trend is far from guaranteed here. The west trend will have everything to do if the phase occurs soon enough and if energy in the SW can move eastward. None of the Models outside of the NAM really that much hope for areas outside of NE North Carolina and points north for there.
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When I say west I mean a few counties not states.
 
I’m telling you. Upper lows can over perform. I think that’s what most areas should pay attention to. How good is the RGEM when ULLS?


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Loganelliott99 said:
f7b4b870d8b2dd948c9e3b03a32e9e43.jpg



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The biggest thing that sticks out to me about those is that most seem to support the idea that the EURO has been showing for several days now of the upper trough induced back side for the Piedmont… there would likely be convective pockets within that with very intense rates… perhaps similar to February 2013
 
Chazwin said:
The biggest thing that sticks out to me about those is that most seem to support the idea that the EURO has been showing for several days now of the upper trough induced back side for the Piedmont… there would likely be convective pockets within that with very intense rates… perhaps similar to February 2013
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Even the later phased members, have that band
 
Chazwin said:
The biggest thing that sticks out to me about those is that most seem to support the idea that the EURO has been showing for several days now of the upper trough induced back side for the Piedmont… there would likely be convective pockets within that with very intense rates… perhaps similar to February 2013
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Yup that’s what I’ve been interested in for the last couple days for us in the western part of the state. I wonder how well the RGEM is with upper troughs. Even the icon shows a back side snow band.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly we’re just seeing the windsheild wiper effect atp on models, seeing ticks back and fourth, but I like the euro here in this setup, models are converging on the euro look. perhaps 1-2 for the Lee side band and a bit more in E/NE NC
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I think that’s a reasonable expectation at this point, but we certainly need to watch the Hi-res to see if they start picking up on convection in that backside stuff
 
GEFS v/s EPS.....EPS more amped for the MA/NE. Like old times.

GEFS-EPS.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly we’re just seeing the windsheild wiper effect atp on models, seeing ticks back and fourth, but I like the euro here in this setup, models are converging on the euro look. perhaps 1-2 for the Lee side band and a bit more in E/NE NC
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Kind of. For central nc though the gfs and NAM’s from last night is what we needed. Stronger closed off energy with the low tucked right offshore. We are quickly losing any hope of that
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Kind of. For central nc though the gfs and NAM’s from last night is what we needed. Stronger closed off energy with the low tucked right offshore. We are quickly losing any hope of that
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With such a sensitive set up you can’t just look at one run and think it’s 100% the right answer .. windshield wiper effect is always happening especially for a storm more than 2 days away .. we’re not going to get a pants bursting run every 6 hours especially when the H5 can take small steps in any direction and cause major impacts .. we will bring you up from the cliff in 24 hours
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
With such a sensitive set up you can’t just look at one run and think it’s 100% the right answer .. windshield wiper effect is always happening especially for a storm more than 2 days away .. we’re not going to get a pants bursting run every 6 hours especially when the H5 can take small steps in any direction and cause major impacts .. we will bring you up from the cliff in 24 hours
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last weds we saw something similar with trends east and i thought we had no shot, and then thurs and friday things trended back quickly.
 
I see why no one is talking about the GEM. It's downright terrible for winter weather. Little precipitation outside of the Outer Banks. Even NE North Carolina doesn't get a lot of snow on this run.

gem_apcpn_seus_14 (1).pngsn10_acc.us_ma (6).png
 
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