Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[KyloG]

All 3 global ensembles...latest runs

 

[ajr]

Ukmet dug deeper at 12z compared to its 0z. Its furtherst east when this is happening compared to all other models,\. Need it back a little further west.

That's so close to something special...

 

[troyc]

Only slightly further East, and, it is sharper and deeper.

 

[NCSNOW]

Interested to see if 12z euro can get deeper than it did at 0z and/or inside to the left of this surface point. just 50-100 miles would be huge. It goes from 1001 to 983 in just 3-6 hours after this.

 

[Mitch West]

Looks like the Midlands of SC and CSRA will be missing out on this event. You have to love where you're sitting at if you live from Raleigh and points east from there towards NE NC and SE VA. A earlier phase could mean even bigger snowfalls for these areas than what models are showing. Even places like the Outer Banks and areas as far south as Jacksonville NC ae currently in the game to see atleast some snow. Only if we push the trough a it futher west, Low develops around the eastern Gulf instead of Florida. That would put more areas in the game for snowfall.

I don’t think over. It’s unlikely sure just like any Winter weather event for us down this way. But I mean, the 18z a couple days ago shows what can happen if phase sooner & dig more. Trends as of now are in our favor. Get that thing to phase in the Eastern Gulf, and we got a chance. I think regardless we have wrap around moisture into Saturday

 

[SD]

I really wish the wave moving through Iowa into the OV here had a little more power and dug more or the final wave moving into the lakes was west/faster/stronger. We are 2/3rds of the way to really bombing the base of the trough, closing this off, and pulling it south/west enough to really expand the precip shield west. Just not sure we can get there

 

[DopplerWx]

I don’t think over. It’s unlikely sure just like any Winter weather event for us down this way. But I mean, the 18z a couple days ago shows what can happen if phase sooner & dig more. Trends as of now are in our favor. Get that thing to phase in the Eastern Gulf, and we got a chance. I think regardless we have wrap around moisture into Saturday

exactly. same way there is a reason we don't say it is a lock to get snow when we are in the bullseye 84 hours out. a lot can and will change.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I really wish the wave moving through Iowa into the OV here had a little more power and dug more or the final wave moving into the lakes was west/faster/stronger. We are 2/3rds of the way to really bombing the base of the trough, closing this off, and pulling it south/west enough to really expand the precip shield west. Just not sure we can get thereView attachment 110357

We have more than 2 days for a small couple of adjustments .. seems doable .. possibly an uphill battle but with the way models have performed recently it seems like a plausible possibility. I like that the ensembles still keep that option on the table at this range.

 

[snowlover91]

Euro looks good so far through hour 60, very similar to the 00z run.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Interested to see if 12z euro can get deeper than it did at 0z and/or inside to the left of this surface point. just 50-100 miles would be huge. It goes from 1001 to 983 in just 3-6 hours after this.

We need more than 50-100 miles 150-200 for us back here in the western half of the state. It’s doable but not likely


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[DopplerWx]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t sleep on these bands associated with the large amounts of dCVA/DPVA with the N/S trough digging in. these can drop a decent 1-2” event

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This is even better than 00z

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Don’t sleep on these bands associated with the large amounts of dCVA/DPVA with the N/S trough digging in. these can drop a decent 1-2” event View attachment 110360View attachment 110359View attachment 110361

Yessir this is probably what we should be tracking vs a big coastal storm .. fun stuff especially when it gets into short range guidance Mode .. they see mesoscale features much better and this certainly looks like a dynamic set up here

 

[CyclonicFury]

 

[packfan98]

View attachment 110363This is even better than 00z

Not as good as 6z though where the trough axis was more nuetral/negative at this timestamp.

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

Hard to believe the precip field wouldn't be a bit more expansive here, need a more negative tilt?

 

[Rain Cold]

I don't know why, but this is intriguing to me, and I like seeing it. It makes me feel like something's up.

 

[ILMRoss]

sheesh man those 20+ inch totals are pretty flippin close

 

[Chandler]

Such a huge storm