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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

00z GFS & GEFS went away from the 18z runs, but the 06z GFS & GEFS brought it back. The 06 GEFS has increased from the 00z, but not quite at the level as the 18z GFS & GEFS. Notice how the only different in the energy between the 2 is that the 06z digs just a little more.gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-total_snow_10to1-3544000.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-vort500_z500-3457600 (1).pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-total_snow_10to1-3544000 (1).pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-vort500_z500-3457600.png
 
The last storm had ups and downs. Thats to be expected. This could easily move back west a bit. Go chase in Elizabeth city for now.
 
EPS still making westward adjustments with the trough
14b5b3bc015cb753368d8a420e26b1de.gif


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KyloG said:
6z GEFS. How does this not result in a moderate event. ?‍♂️

Haven’t looked at the other overnight runs but hoping it’s close to this.

View attachment 110573
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Here's why. Look close at 18z run last night in southern Mississippi and see how sharper the trough is and just a hair tick further west. Then look at same frame for 0z and 6z. Couple hours latter sharpening up and more positive tilt. Barely noticeable, but makes all the difference in the world. The sensible wx for our micro climate/back yards has a long way to go on this one before we iron it out.

18z last night
500hv.conus.png

6z most recent
500hv.conus.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wish the rgem didn’t look like dogcrap
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Actually thought the rgem looked a lot better at h5 than 00z. Lp placement got hijacked by a northern cluster of storms off the VA coast that I haven’t really seen in any other model. It would of had better surface reflection if that stuff wasn’t there
 
Man idk. Still love this look even 66 hrs out. And the fact the gfs and euro still spit out 1” even with the less than ideal runs. I just don’t ever remember a time when we didn’t have a super amped system trend west even up to go time.
A5D7B59E-A8CD-48BD-8998-7BB2A5B6353D.png
 
DopplerWx said:
Man idk. Still love this look even 66 hrs out. And the fact the gfs and euro still spit out 1” even with the less than ideal runs. I just don’t ever remember a time when we didn’t have a super amped system trend west even up to go 1643200416883.png
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Yeah I agree. This is so close to our benchmark for the Carolinas and eastern Georgia, as in just a few mm pressure lower and we have a raging snowstorm. Just need to find a little more energy in the next 72 hours at the base of the trough
 
Does anyone have the 06z EURO?


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smast16 said:
So, is it still too early to complain about 2m temps?
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Station ID: KIGX Lat: 35.76 Long: -79.06
NAM Model Run: 6Z 26JAN 2022 Cloud base and tops are now agl
HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis
Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM

69 01/29 03Z 34 31 19 6 0.03 0.00 534 546 -4.8 -22.9 1015 100 -SN 045OVC294 0.1 7.5
72 01/29 06Z 30 29 12 10 0.15 0.00 532 543 -6.0 -22.8 1013 100 -SN 030OVC318 1.3 0.5
75 01/29 09Z 27 25 355 11 0.13 0.00 527 537 -8.8 -24.9 1012 100 -SN 054OVC177 1.3 1.2
78 01/29 12Z 27 23 345 12 0.03 0.00 520 532 -11.7 -30.5 1014 100 097OVC164 0.3 7.2
81 01/29 15Z 29 17 329 13 0.00 0.00 518 530 -12.2 -32.9 1016 84 034BKN049 0.0 15.0
84 01/29 18Z 29 7 317 13 0.00 0.00 516 529 -11.9 -32.4 1016 7 053FEW061 0.0 15.0

Where's the issue?
 
Need that trough to go negative tilt faster than advertised. That Hudson Bay energy ticks north, the southern stream energy ticks south.

Probably a nothing burger but at least there is some support for Gilmer County to pick up around an inch n the EURO and EPS. At least something to look at if it happens.
 
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