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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

The problem you have tho is there is nothing to hold this back toward the coast in a flow like that. I am not saying it won't happen, or be like the EURO, but you have to play catch the vort pieces at the right time and that is not going to be easy. If there was some blocking out ahead.....well...then..
 
12z RGEM says the game is still on.
500hv.conus.png


prateptype.conus.png
 
Y'all ease up on the "what did it look like for my area", "got a map of this" comments/questions please. Maps will get posted and we still have days to go, gonna be a long week like this. Lol
Also, Stop reading into most of these maps as their 10:1 ratios. And this ain't about to be anything close to 10:1
 
The problem you have tho is there is nothing to hold this back toward the coast in a flow like that. I am not saying it won't happen, or be like the EURO, but you have to play catch the vort pieces at the right time and that is not going to be easy. If there was some blocking out ahead.....well...then..
Could be the end result is what was showing early on with the last one. North central Ga being on the northern edge of a precip shield from a suppressed system, and getting the sleet and snow we so richly deserve :) A south of I 20 deal. I've been under virga today, and if this weekend is similar, with much colder air in place, it becomes a matter of watching the precip shield coming in from the west.
 
Also, Stop reading into most of these maps as their 10:1 ratios. And this ain't about to be anything close to 10:1
Mean temps on the GEFS is in the upper 20s/ around 30 when it’s snowing, it would probably be close or at 10:1 during the peak of the event if it happens, esp with favorable diurnal timing 1EC1089A-7FC4-4E74-81C6-2FC5303497D3.png7D41B433-03E4-49E8-B117-172BBB90F1DB.png
 
Positive early trend on the GFS. The entire northern stream is slightly west, and the southern vort max is a little east. Could make for an easier phase in coming frames?
12Z
gfs_z500_vort_us_11.png
VS 6Z
gfs_z500_vort_us_12.png
 
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