smast16
Member
I think this statement applied for the 1st 6 months, but air travel is pretty much back to normal levels. +/- 15%
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
GFS has been trending back the past 2 runs, and it’s ensemble looks good
lexxnchloe
Member
Interesting that the timing on this will be very similar to last week. I think most of NC will see at least a coating with Raleigh east doing as well as the last low.
I'm good if it stays right there on modeling until Thurs night
smast16
Member
And they looked great up to 48 / 72 hours out on the Big sunday storm with the consensus showing the low still off the coast vs the Op's showing them inland.
And even then, we're still talking about 33 and 34 degree snows.
ATLwxfan
Member
For us to score would be an unprecedented failure of modern weather forecasting. The models aren’t perfect but they are pretty darn good.
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I mean some of us don't really want this to come to much further west lol. All joking aside, this really is close to being the bomb first advertised, next day or so of models after all data is sampled going to be fun
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And then there's us over here who want this to charge west and get in on a big storm after so many fails this season. The coming days will tell what the answer is as the energy get better sampled and we verify different aspects that would make it one or the other, or a flop for both.I mean some of us don't really want this to come to much further west lol. All joking aside, this really is close to being the bomb first advertised, next day or so of models after all data is sampled going to be fun
You want to trade spots for this one?I mean some of us don't really want this to come to much further west lol. All joking aside, this really is close to being the bomb first advertised, next day or so of models after all data is sampled going to be fun
All jokes aside you may be in the sweet spot of NC on this one. I would like to see a phase in the GOM personally but that looks unlikely atm. I realize it can go either way at this time, but I do like your chances!
?
packfan98
Moderator
Man, this 500mb map looks complicated with all of the energy. The western energy is split on this run of the NAM compared to the last run. Makes me think there will be some different looking outcomes before we lock in on a final result.
The NBM basically doubled for most of NE NC but quadrupled for hampton roads.
lexxnchloe
Member
Do you have a map of that? How far south in NC does the snow get?
Prestige Worldwide
Member
Did you see the insane control?
brendan123
Member
This is the best snow mean I’ve ever seen, only 5 members have less than 2 inches… but being in the bullseye four days out doesn’t tend to work out, I think things might start trending better for areas more inland/further west
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packfan98
Moderator
FYI for everyone. The NBM seems to be heavily weighted with the GFS. After the Huge GFS run the other day the model was showing 6+ inches for the same areas that was slammed by the GFS run.
Y'all ease up on the "what did it look like for my area", "got a map of this" comments/questions please. Maps will get posted and we still have days to go, gonna be a long week like this. Lol
Energy looks more consolidated this run on the NAM this run. It is slightly further east however. You're only talking Vegas at 6z and the Grand Canyon at 12z.