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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

LukeBarrette said:
We could easily trend it to the 2000 storm. That is like one tick away. Interesting. It’s only the NAM. Everyone say it with me! It’s only the NAM. It’s only the NAM. It’s only the NAM.
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With it being so far out and it being the NAM, I expect at least another day or so of W shifts with these trends until the thing gets all sampled, then there's probably a few more adjustments as the waves successfully or fail to phase. At this rate I expect them to succeed but how soon it tilts nicely is going to take a couple more days to sort out. I think this thing being exclusively a NE storm is losing likelyhood.
 
griteater said:
Amazing how the trough keeps getting deeper. 500mb winds

oWQZMPy.gif
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That is so close to cutting off.
 
Jessy89 said:
No not with the low developing off the Carolina coast. For it to work out for Pickens county west we need the low to develop in the gulf.


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That is not true at all. The surface low is not driving the precip over the western Carolinas. It is driven from the H5 Dynamics. The surface low is what it gets eastern Carolinas, more specifically eastern NC the massive totals right now.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Rgem looks worse. Southern stream further west and northern stream quicker. Not what I wanted to see
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I know the RGEM has done very well the last storms, but those weren’t really dealing with a lot of phasing… how well has the RGEM done in the past with phasing systems?
 
BullCityWx said:
The back edge stalled out from 81-84. It was fixing to pivot over a lot of us.
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Yep, that's exactly what would have happened if it ran out more.

It's fun to see the monster solutions, but we really need to inch forward and not make these massive shifts every cycle. Still way too much time on the clock for Mahomes to drive down the field and beat us with a warm nose.
 
Chazwin said:
I know the RGEM has done very well the last storms, but those weren’t really dealing with a lot of phasing… how well has the RGEM done in the past with phasing systems?
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It did well with Jan 3 from what I remember at least for Roanoke.
 
Jessy89 said:
There room where the precipitation field can be a little further NW. so I’d think a light event is possible but anything more then a light event I’m just not seeing it. Unless this low gets started in the gulf


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Again the surface low is not what is driving the moisture until it is sliding out of our area. It’s all about how the far the trough digs south and the energy phasing that gets it going to negative tilt and increasing precip. The surface low is not what is really going to give us any moisture back this way and usually doesn’t.
 
iGRXY said:
That is not true at all. The surface low is not driving the precip over the western Carolinas. It is driven from the H5 Dynamics. The surface low is what it gets eastern Carolinas, more specifically eastern NC the massive totals right now.
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I understand that but wouldn’t that precipitation transfer quickly to the coastal low? I could see a light event in upstate 1-3 type event mostly because I can’t see it lasting very long.


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ForsythSnow said:
Actually the ICON was a step in the right direction compared to its prior runs. Here's the last 3 in order from new to old

icon_z500_vort_us_22.png
icon_z500_vort_us_24.png
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Agreed, improvement buy closer to reality most likely. Enough to remind us not to trust the NAM, yet haha
 
iGRXY said:
That is not true at all. The surface low is not driving the precip over the western Carolinas. It is driven from the H5 Dynamics. The surface low is what it gets eastern Carolinas, more specifically eastern NC the massive totals right now.
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Question. What are H5 Dynamics? Google is not being my friend.


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Jessy89 said:
I understand that but wouldn’t that precipitation transfer quickly to the coastal low? I could see a light event in upstate 1-3 type event mostly because I can’t see it lasting very long.


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You get a phase and a trough digging like the NAM, especially if it continues to show a phase further west as it has trended, and it would dump quite a bit of snow here and it would be way more than 1-3”
 
Oh know that everyone is mentioning comparisons to March 1980 and January 2000 with that NAM run. However I just looked it up, sorry I was having trouble attaching it, but the snow footprint from the NAM run is actually very similar to the late February 1989 storm.
 
rgem was indeed stellar last storm and nam was pretty uhh shall we say "tough to use as a forecasting tool" but i would recommend trying to harness the memory of a goldfish when looking at each new setup. it's good to keep context and track records in mind, but don't lean into that too hard. the rgem is going against the grain against the direction of every other model and at the end of the day you have to ask yourself if you're going to throw yourself into a tizzy because the 84 hour solution of a singular mesoscale model does not align with the nam, gfs, gfs ensembles, euro, and euro ensembles. time to find out if i'm full of hot air in about 20 minutes
 
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