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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

NickyBGuarantee said:
This is a boggling concept to me.. temps should be similar to if not a bit higher than last event during snowfall probably 29-31 I would say in the “thick” of whatever comes.. so how can snow ratios be higher in this event than last?? I assume it’s dynamics above our heads and the potential for the column to crash so rapidly is causing an intense snow liquid ratio .. I just don’t understand the process that well
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Keep in mind that it’s not the temperature at the surface that determines the ratio, but the temperature in DGZ that’s important… along with other factors such as wind. Surface temperatures has nothing to do with it…. In the January 2003 storm that gave CLT metro 40:1 ratios, temperatures were in the 33-35 degree range when it started and fell back into the 20s from there, but even as the snow was starting it was very noticeably the fluffiest snow I had ever seen
 
I see that the NAM 12K and NAM 3K continues to be way too far NW with the precipitation,even with the later phasing. No chance this solution comes to pass.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM is definitely trending towards the globals, you can even see that with the snowfall footprint. it’ll probably look similar by tonight or tomorrow morning to the euro and GFS at the sfc. I’m honestly a bit excited with the ULT band potential
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Agreed… even what it’s showing snow wise looks to be more associated with the Lee side trough than with the actual surface low itself. Also GSP is beginning to talk more of that possibility. One thing of note with that is that type of development will cause temperatures to crash at the surface very quickly… in the February 2013 event my temperature dropped from 42 to 32 in just a matter of a few minutes as the snow started falling
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
More in play besides the Lp off the coast. This is mostly ULL driven.
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I know. I was talking about the precipitation closer to the coastline, which is not ULL driven. The NAM still has it too far west. The precipitation associated with the ULL is believable. The Precipitation that's closer to the coast is not, especially with the later phase.
 
Faco Thomas said:
I see that the NAM 12K and NAM 3K continues to be way too far NW with the precipitation,even with the later phasing. No chance this solution comes to pass.

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This is pretty much what the Euro is showing and what the GFS is starting to pick up on… you can’t just look at the surface map. The snow that this is showing from basically west of I-95 isn’t from the surface, but the Lee side trough/ULL that’s swinging through
 
I know that every system and setup is different, but there is some similarity with regards to the SW energy from last week with the modeling. The models were digging the energy too much and in the last 24 hours started speeding up the energy and bringing more of it out. I do wonder if we will see anything similar with this system.
 
Seems to me that the thing to hope for at this point is a quick 1-3”/2-4” event for much of NC from the ULL. Most every model has this at this point. There will be winners and losers with this setup and snowfall amounts will not be even across the region. It’s not what we want, but it’s better than nothing. ?‍♂️
 
Faco Thomas said:
I see that the NAM 12K and NAM 3K continues to be way too far NW with the precipitation,even with the later phasing. No chance this solution comes to pass.

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You should be less 100% when talking about weather in NC and weather in general .. there’s lots of moving parts to this system and a couple of them have the ability to deliver a good snow to different areas of NC. None of the models have the correct solution right now .. they are just tools we should look at all of them that way .. what are they trying to show us .. we decipher that and try and make a prediction. To cancel out completely the possibility that a storms precipitation is much more NW then currently forecasted 2-3 days out when all of our past storms have followed that same trend wouldn’t be the smartest thing imo on the other hand it’s clear there is a trend further out to sea in general and that must be taken into account
 
Last two paragraphs of RAH's long range discussion (could be fun):

~
The arrival of the strong forcing/lift associated with the
amplifying northern stream trough diving into the region Friday
evening, coincident with a surface cold front that will push
southeast through the area, will lead to the development of precip
back across the western NC that will push east overnight. The
resultant deep column cooling will result in a fairly
efficient/quick change-over from rain to snow, with any transition p-
type of freezing rain/sleet being very short-lived and
inconsequential. Snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible along
and north of HWY 64, with 1 inch or less expected across the
southern half of the forecast areas. Since the Winter Storm Warning
for snow is 3", will not issue any watches with this forecast
package.

However, it is also important to note, deep f-gen forcing and the
presence of CSI suggest favorable conditions for mesoscale snow
bands to develop and spread east across central NC Friday night.
Furthermore, intense dynamic cooling aloft will result in a sharp
increase in snow/liquid ratios(SLR) on the order of 15-17:1)
during that same time frame. These ingredients could result in the
potential for some very localized/very focused higher snowfall
amounts, quite possibly even warning criteria (>=3"). While it`s
very difficult to know exactly where these bands will set up, the
greatest potential is across the northern Piedmont and northern
coastal plain counties.
 
For folks east of 95 in NC, more times than not SLP corrects west inside 48hrs, delta PVA looks to max around Myrtle before going offshore currently, if it’s Savannah we get smoked, it’s not far off in the grand scheme and evident by volatility in guidance. A late bloomer but it’s still a solid look inside day 3, I’m at the table with ante.

500hv.conus.png

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

@Faco Thomas Google it?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_vorticity_advection
 
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iGRXY said:
3K is really picking up on the ULL passage and shows more moisture associated with it. Dropping a solid amount at hour 60 with at least a couple more hours to go. Definitely could drop a quick 1-3” for a lot of areas in the western carolinas
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I could definitely see this being a widespread 1-3” type event for the NC Foothills, Piedmont, Sandhills, as well eastern SC upstate. The key would be where any convective elements set up as those would create some very intense rates in very short amount of time… in the February 2013 event CLT had 3.3” with 2.7” of it falling in just about 1 hour
 
WeatherNC said:
For folks east of 95 in NC, more times than not SLP corrects west inside 48hrs, delta PVA looks to max around Myrtle before going offshore currently, if it’s Savannah we get smoked, it’s not far off in the grand scheme and evident by volatility in guidance. A late bloomer but it’s still a solid look inside day 3, I’m at the table with ante.
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I was ready to fold with the last storm when the storm practically went poof around 24-30 hours out only to make the drastic NW trend. There will be a NW trend of some kind, always is. Just a matter of how much.
 
KyloG said:
UK looks great, especially if you live under that 1” qpf band in Greensboro.

View attachment 110668
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Late phasing streamer dropping in on the UKMet saves the day for Greensboro ?

SvTSoEn.gif
 
metwannabe said:
Sure NAM was still solid if you ignore the trend which is hard to do

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Yea this isn't a good trade off even for central NC. The phase scenario was the way to go and unfortunately it trended in the wrong direction from Triad out to the big pond. Folks counting on ULL best get ready for dry bones let down IMO. Hopefully I'm wrong
 
KyloG said:
RGEM giving us scraps…lucky for it…we love the scraps

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I’m vindictive, so I do kind of love to see the ULL trending stronger over us to give a small/moderate event while New England gets screwed over. Haha.

Definitely an increasing consensus and better amounts showing up with the ULL passage today. This is occurring across all models, and if it trends better we could be looking at a nice event from that alone.
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m vindictive, so I do kind of love to see the ULL trending stronger over us to give a small/moderate event while New England gets screwed over. Haha.

Definitely an increasing consensus and better amounts showing up with the ULL passage today. This is occurring across all models, and if it trends better we could be looking at a nice event from that alone.
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You read my mind bro lol I'll take all the scraps I can get especially if I end up with more than parts of new england aside from coastal areas lol I've scored and been burnt with ull but the lee side meso low gives me hope for the foothills and peidmont.
 
NCSNOW said:
From hr 55-60 Keeps those deep Clouds up Hwy 1 corridor N/S all the way to the coast. But from there back west its all thin milky. 3knam
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Still decent soundings west of 1 with plenty of lift in a fairly saturated dgz. Might not be ripping mashed potatoes like it would be east but not a bad look
 
SD said:
Still decent soundings west of 1 with plenty of lift in a fairly saturated dgz. Might not be ripping mashed potatoes like it would be east but not a bad look
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Yes it’s a very good look. The other thing is… this isn’t just an ULL… this a Lee side trough/ULL… it’s a set up that has done very well for the Piedmont over the years and it’s something that has and is gaining more support from models… both operational and ensembles
 
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