I am remembering last storm and how the HRRR and NAM almost every new run almost created a strong piece of energy out of nowhere as we went towards verification. If they did that with the last system what could happen here?
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
That and be careful what you wish for, you really don't want it to come to much further west and there's really nothing to guarantee it won't. The fine line we walk around here
Cool thing about mega storms like this is that you could be hundreds of miles away from the jackpot and still received a storm that's 100%+ of your yearly climo simply from the blast radius of these things being so large
I would argue the opposite. The RGEM (all joking aside) was by far the best performing model for last storm. The NAM lost the storm completely 24-48 hours before the storm was suppose to happen. This time frame is suppose to be the NAM's "wheelhouse" I take everything the NAM puts out now with massive mounds of salt. Has no credibility in my eyes going forward other than to observe how its reacting to trends in other models.
Look at all that vort shrapnel off the coast. Love seeing that.
packfan98
Moderator
18z Icon has a stronger system than 12z, but there's nowhere near the dig as the other models and has the outcome further east.
Well to be fair it had some crap runs that were wrong in the lead up but boy when it figured it out, it really figured it out.
The NAM was showing precip not even making it to the coast 48 hours out with last week’s system. What do you mean?
Yeah I can't stop staring at that map
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Are we gonna see constant trends up until go time with this system, like that last one that was on a Sunday? Seems like this is a new normal. If it keeps going we may see some snow in alabamur
You want the big dog, that's what it looks like. It's very close to tucking the low into the coast. But it is the long range NAM. That said, I'm expecting a trend back to a big storm. Historic? Meh, that's impossible to call. But I think somebody in the SE up into VA is going to get smoked.
Icon shows rain/snow but that’s likely SN I’m that band, and a good burst of snow in this sort of setup, this is ofc a icon solution and one possibility 
Never say never but honestly I think any expectations for this to bring alabama snow should be very tampered. I think the best places for this to trend better for them would be western NC and SC
Pretty much what @CaryWx is alluding to. Yes, it had some crap runs but other models have as well.
I get it and we've certainly got it--in the wrong way, but runs like the ICON has just revealed have me thinking -too far west- will not be what we have to contend with
griteater
Member
RDPS was a little more positive tilt with the wave dropping down this run
DadOfJax
Member
Not our storm, not our year.