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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Looks similar to the 12z run, although the snow is a bit more widespread. The coastal low precip also ticked a bit west. It gets some 0.5” totals across the sounds now onto the mainland.

Looks quite exciting for the CLT area, IMO. Not as enthused over here in the Triangle, but we’ll see…
 
iGRXY said:
I think we’re going to start seeing precip flourish more the closer we get as the dynamics of the ULL take over. The trough is actually in a really good spot for the upstate and Piedmont to get a decent clip of snow for 4-6 hours and could really drop a solid widespread 1-4”
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Upstate usually in a favorable spot for Lee side convection. Seen it a time or two. Cant rule it out entirely but Charlotte and central NC seem to be the early model favorites. Worth watching at least.
 
Here’s what the K index is
The K-Index or George's Index is a measure of thunderstorm potential in meteorology. According to the National Weather Service, the index harnesses measurements such as "vertical temperature lapse rate, moisture content of the lower atmosphere, and the vertical extent of the moist layer."[1] It was developed by the American meteorologist Joseph J. George, and published in the 1960 book Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics.[2]
Site : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index_(meteorology)
 
Total Precip on 18z Euro

u4bmNIv.png
 
iGRXY said:
I think we’re going to start seeing precip flourish more the closer we get as the dynamics of the ULL take over. The trough is actually in a really good spot for the upstate and Piedmont to get a decent clip of snow for 4-6 hours and could really drop a solid widespread 1-4”
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Is the western part of the upstate such as Anderson Pickens and Greenville are not going to see any thing for this storm
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We was about to get a weenie RAP run lol…. Look at that convective death band forming in the mountainsView attachment 110770
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I’ve never seen models really latch onto this sort of thing this far out .. especially as strong as they show it now.. this may be a tremendous band come go time.. time will be the only limiting factor here .. key is what kind of snow rates can we get under this band
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’ve never seen models really latch onto this sort of thing this far out .. especially as strong as they show it now.. this may be a tremendous band come go time.. time will be the only limiting factor here .. key is what kind of snow rates can we get under this band
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The precip tends to last longer than you might expect in these setups. It will form and expand in the lee of the apps, then be a bit slow to move off to the east. Euro is showing some 8-9 hours of precip in the Hickory to Charlotte to N SC corridor. We’ll see how it trends going forward
 
Clem282340 said:
Is the western part of the upstate such as Anderson Pickens and Greenville are not going to see any thing for this storm
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I could be wrong. These lows sometimes can bring surprises. But I really don’t see the western upstate seeing much from this. We might see some flakes but im really expecting the eastern upstate to see 1-3 type snow event


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griteater said:
The precip tends to last longer than you might expect in these setups. It will form and expand in the lee of the apps, then be a bit slow to move off to the east. Euro is showing some 8-9 hours of precip in the Hickory to Charlotte to N SC corridor. We’ll see how it trends going forward
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Also tends to be heavier then what global NWP show, the intense 700mb vertical velocity/moist column/steep mid level lapse rates argues for scattered but heavy banding
 
Jessy89 said:
I could be wrong. These lows sometimes can bring surprises. But I really don’t see the western upstate seeing much from this. We might see some flakes but im really expecting the eastern upstate to see 1-3 type snow event


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I think the 18z 3k nam show a little something for our area I’m hoping it show it on tonight’s run again
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Also tends to be heavier then what global NWP show, the intense 700mb vertical velocity/moist column/steep mid level lapse rates argues for scattered but heavy banding
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This is very true. Like I said earlier this is the type of set were widespread 1-3” is certainly possible, but for those that get under one those intense bands…it could very easily balloon into 4-5”+
 
Clem282340 said:
I think the 18z 3k nam show a little something for our area I’m hoping it show it on tonight’s run again
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I want us to see snow here in Pickens county. You live right down the road from me. I live off breazeale Rd close to Pickens airport. But I’m not getting my expectations of this event to high. That way if we do see a surprise I would really be excited even if it’s just a inch.


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Clem282340 said:
Is the western part of the upstate such as Anderson Pickens and Greenville are not going to see any thing for this storm
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Way too soon to say yes or no. More and more precip continues to trend further and further west. I will say the gradient would probably be really sharp as the mountains of SC can really hurt places like Oconee, Pickens, and Anderson counties. Those areas could see a dusting where DT Greenville might see an inch or 2 and then places like Spartanburg, Cherokee, Union, back towards Charlotte and the 77 corridor might get 2-4”. Precip is usually underdone with these ULL and rates are very hard if you get under those bands. Right now I still say areas along and east of highway 25 that runs through Greenville county stand the best shot to seeing some real accumulation.
 
griteater said:
The precip tends to last longer than you might expect in these setups. It will form and expand in the lee of the apps, then be a bit slow to move off to the east. Euro is showing some 8-9 hours of precip in the Hickory to Charlotte to N SC corridor. We’ll see how it trends going forward
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January’03 style? For GSP area. Started snowing and called for 1-3”, kept snowing and Gaffney to Gastonia got about 10” as the temps crashed? Remember that one?
 
Tarheel1 said:
January’03 style? For GSP area. Started snowing and called for 1-3”, kept snowing and Gaffney to Gastonia got about 10” as the temps crashed? Remember that one?
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Yes though I mentioned earlier that I don’t see this one being near as dynamic as that one which is a high bar
 
@griteater saw something similar 2 weeks ago as the northern stream Upper level trough/low passed over from SW > NE, pretty cool stuff, I picked up 1 inch of snow in 45 minutes. Models were very bleak what that and only showed 0.1-0.3 with that backside stuff, with some HRRR runs actually showing nill. I find this setup very interesting to how similar it was to feb 2013 wrt the mesolow feature. 7E3A4E9C-0DDA-422D-B5C9-862198D4A44D.jpeg77BFFCD7-40D3-4FB6-8539-65D423496549.jpeg
 
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