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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Poimen said:
Here's the 3K showing a nice evolution of the band associated with the upper trough. I hate relying on these things. They can be fickle and can also disappear like a fart in the wind. But if these trends remain steady today then WSW may be needed for the 85 corridor from CLT to the Triad. Best of luck to everyone.

By the way: TD now has precip maps for the EC.
View attachment 110927
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Where do you find the lee side low forming, is that showing up still on the mesoscale models this morning? I can't find it.
 
DopplerWx said:
Are we dealing with higher ratios down here like RAH was mentioning for the Raleigh area?
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With the max lift near the DGZ like in the sounding FRO showed I would say ratios would be higher than 10. Now at the surface you have temps around freezing and near saturation so some riming would be likely lowering ratios a little.
 
Soundings definitely support minimum 10:1 ratios even with temps at the surface around 32-34 degrees. Under some of those bands you’re probably going to get 1-3” rates at times as well so even just averaging 0.5” an hour for the whole event with the majority of models showing areas east of the apps getting at least 4 hours of snow, 2” seems likely for a lot of places IMO.
 
HRRR really showing how warm the central midlands are for the event. To get things to work out down there, you want to see very heavy precipitation with very high saturation in the snow growth region. The Northern Midlands are looking to really score something huge here.....
 
Poimen said:
I don't see a lee side surface low either. Everything is relying on the upper dynamics.
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Thanks yeah, was getting interested yesterday when that started showing up. Depending on the UL dynamics again is not ideal IMO. A lot still fighting against the piedmont; surface temps and rain changeover to start, and light precip unless you're under the convective bands which will be very localized. Really like to see a mesolow start showing up again to provide more lift and precip on a broader level.
 
Shawn said:
HRRR really showing how warm the central midlands are for the event. To get things to work out down there, you want to see very heavy precipitation with very high saturation in the snow growth region. The Northern Midlands are looking to really score something huge here.....
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guess I'll drive to Newberry
 
Shawn said:
HRRR really showing how warm the central midlands are for the event. To get things to work out down there, you want to see very heavy precipitation with very high saturation in the snow growth region. The Northern Midlands are looking to really score something huge here.....
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But still with stuck strong dynamics it’s still printing out 1-2 inches in central and eastern midlands.
 
NCSNOW said:
Thats definietly the case for your area. I sit right on the line of both and preferably for myself would feel more confident in the coastal winding up and staying tugged in tight than depending on some upper level energy getting lined up just right in a pivot. This would require the ULL to stack quicker along SC coast so its deepening as it rides in tight up the NC coast, Course , there is a way to score both ways. But west of 85 no doubt your rooting for pivoting ULL. I have pretty decent/ not perfect odds whichever way it plays out.
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I've been skipped over by ULE many times, and to far west for the coastals most of the time.. So I can believe that dry slot that has been shown by every model every run!!! That said I'll be happy and surprised if we get a inch back here, unless some lee side low spins up or something that don't happen very often goes wild. lol As always in the SE we Watch And Wait.............................
 
Hmmm still skeptical we only deal with the upper level feature .. both the RGEM and the prior NAM develop the low by Florida and bring it fairly close to the coast .. each have a finger of moisture that reaches into central NC and then has the upper level system .. not saying it’s right but the dry slot has me confused tbh doesn’t look right .. also RGEM did fairly well and stayed fairly consistent last 2 events so let’s see what happens .. regardless it looks like many of us see snow out of this system .. even SC folks .. we’re getting more people in the game this winter all around 1643292010569.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Hmmm still skeptical we only deal with the upper level feature .. both the RGEM and the prior NAM develop the low by Florida and bring it fairly close to the coast .. each have a finger of moisture that reaches into central NC and then has the upper level system .. not saying it’s right but the dry slot has me confused tbh doesn’t look right .. also RGEM did fairly well and stayed fairly consistent last 2 events so let’s see what happens .. regardless it looks like many of us see snow out of this system .. even SC folks .. we’re getting more people in the game this winter all around View attachment 110938
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Same track as the CC but less precip due to no instant occlusion and 500mb cutting off north of us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NCSNOW said:
For what its worth rest of 6z suite: GFS, FV3 which only goes out to 60 are knocking on the door step of warning criteria snowfall: Assuming its 3 inches in 6 hours In parts of Triad.

Be nice to squeeze about 3-4 out. I still think the coastal guys, especially from SD/Met over to G-Vegas crowd and down to Wilm can score big here. Definitely our Elizabeth City / SE VA posters. It really only takes one little nudge for these guys and jury is gonna be out till it unfolds tomorrow.
"Game of Inches" as they say in football , applies to chasing this soon to be phased storm for the Coastal plain/far NE piedmont crowd.
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Yeah, I’m holding out for at least what I saw last weekend and hoping for more.
 
3km NAM might be the better one to look at .. the other nam is dead to me tbh .. you fill in that dry slot a bit more and this is a bigger deal.. can’t imagine we don’t at some point as we close in 7A21157B-45D3-4B92-9F19-FDEC3CD96AAD.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nam looks like crap
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3k looks much better.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
 
iGRXY said:
NAM’s dry bias is ridiculous at this point. Both the 3K and 12K did this with the storm last week and the storm 2 weeks ago at this range.
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Well just two runs ago NAM had the entire state of NC covered with snow and was dropping 12-20” across ENC. Not sure dry bias is the issue as much as the NAM is just bad since it hasn’t been maintained or updated in years.
 
snowlover91 said:
Well just two runs ago NAM had the entire state of NC covered with snow and was dropping 12-20” across ENC. Not sure dry bias is the issue as much as the NAM is just bad since it hasn’t been maintained or updated in years.
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It did the exact same thing last week about 30 hours out with basically zero precip making it past the beaches before quickly changing its tune. It’s ridiculous at this point that it continues to do this even under 48 hours.
 
oh come on guys. i really liked the nam and i think yall are being too pessimistic.
Two superb trends here- four corners shortwave keeps ticking east. I also love, love the subtle west shifts on the western edge of the longwave trough- it's ticking further west. think that favors a little more digging and helps with the tilt issue.

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh18_trend.gif

Thought the surface reflection was also remarkably reasonable. gun to my head somebody tells me "draw the precip shield of a sub 1000 lp 200 miles east of ILM" i probably draw something like this.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_37.png

3km was a little iffier with cyclogenesis, it didn't have it building towards s florida- something to keep an eye on.
 
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