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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Yeah, Euro close to giving the Central Carolinas a nothing burger this run.. wouldn't take but one more run like this one a bit faster.. Eastern/Coastal look to get snow though.
 
Euro wasn't bad slightly more NE with the trough, a little more shallow, and a touch faster moved some of the higher qpf totals around. Still would be a solid area or 2 of banded relatively heavier snow embedded in a decent sized area of light snow shifting E
 
SD said:
Euro wasn't bad slightly more NE with the trough, a little more shallow, and a touch faster moved some of the higher qpf totals around. Still would be a solid area or 2 of banded relatively heavier snow embedded in a decent sized area of light snow shifting E
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Likely model static tbh
 
superjames1992 said:
RAH is still not buying that lee side band much at all, which I don’t really understand.

View attachment 111022
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48 pages for that snow accumulation map, ugh. Looks and feels like a stock winter storm around here

Here's the Fro K Index loop from the Euro for potential thunder / convective precip

WSsWFwY.gif
 
Gopack42 said:
I am getting word they are already talking about base closures at Camp Lejeune for MONDAY!! WTH???
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Well. they have already put brine on the roads in Wake County which will get washed away by the rain proceeding what will probably be only snow flurries if the models are on track. For people in Wake County it looks like this a case of being in no man's land between what might be a nice event for Charlotte with the upper air system and the Northeast Coastal areas with the developing costal low. I guess it's good to err on the side of caution but that can be carried to extremes sometimes,
 
weather bubba said:
Well. they have already put brine on the roads in Wake County which will get washed away by the rain proceeding what will probably be only snow flurries if the models are on track. For people in Wake County it looks like this a case of being in no man's land between what might be a nice event for Charlotte with the upper air system and the Northeast Coastal areas with the developing costal low. I guess it's good to err on the side of caution but that can be carried to extremes sometimes,
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Oh, I get it for sure. But Monday? In Jacksonville, NC? That "possible" 0.001" we could get here shouldn't shut down the largest Marine Base in the country lol.
 
Gopack42 said:
Oh, I get it for sure. But Monday? In Jacksonville, NC? That "possible" 0.001" we could get here shouldn't shut down the largest Marine Base in the country lol.
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I’m thinking someone may have heard the wrong thing or got bad info. Camp Lejeune’s point and click forecast shows about a dusting on Sat morning. In fact, Monday looks nice--sunny and lower 50’s. ☀️
 
18z NAM looks worse for the coastal, but I think the ULL might deliver more of a punch than the 12z run for those who get under that. Keep in mind the 12z run had basically nothing on the lee side, so we’re not clearing a high bar here.
 
One thing we will have working for us with this is the snow will be falling after dark (assuming there is any snow). That’ll help whatever falls stick better, especially with temperatures near/above freezing.
 
ryan1234 said:
Well neither GSP or RAH pulled the trigger and decided not to issue any watches, warnings or advisories expect for the mountain Counties. Guess they still aren’t buying this ULL.
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To early lol only watches would be issued at this time and the models don't warrant that. They'll issue WWA by tomorrow with possible WSW above 3500ft.

Edit: NVM lol they already hoisted warnings above 3500 and they don't think the ULL will reach advisory criteria for the Piedmont. I think this is a mistake for Charlotte metro still time to issue one though.
 
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ryan1234 said:
Well neither GSP or RAH pulled the trigger and decided not to issue any watches, warnings or advisories expect for the mountain Counties. Guess they still aren’t buying this ULL.
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By reading the discussion, they are buying into to it, but think accumulation will be below advisory level… which I know my point forecast has 1-2 inches of accumulation in it so that’s clearly advisory level. Brad P just posted that he thinks advisories will be issued closer to the time frame
 
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