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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Is this what y’all call Nam’d? I think I got it. I got different colors than y’all……
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NickyBGuarantee said:
Is this enough qpf to work out? Oh and it’s still snowing ..View attachment 110503View attachment 110504
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This may be the generational storm we have been looking for. Notice that even with the Low off the Coast of Virgina by this point, it's still snowing hard for eastern SC and NC,so these clown maps are nowhere near finshed for many areas. This really has the makings of a major storm, especially for Raleigh and points eastward towards NE North Carolina and SE Virgina.
 
Chazwin said:
That is something that even the March 1980 storm didn’t do… there was sizable chunk of southern SC that only got a dusting to 2”. I doubt that we see historical amounts with this storm, but if something like this NAM run unfolds, it could be historic from a standpoint of how much of NC and SC receives significant accumulation
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I remember the March 1980 storm. 1.9" fell at Charleston and it was followed by the all time record low March temp of 15 degrees.

The NAM currently has an almost 1980 like look, just that this current potential may be ingesting some steroids earlier...
 
Interestingly enough the Jan 2000 storm came during a period of 3 or so weeks of significant cold and storm activity then after the storm about a week later was in the 70s I believe and they started the winter out with record breaking warmth as well… weird history repeating type stuff but still just an interesting thing to note
 
So close to just bombing in and riding out of the gulf. Not pulling for coastal low transfer out of the gulf. For folks back west we want it to deepen as soon as possible. Full on Miller A. ENC can get away with a bombing coastal. We cannot. Great looking piece of energy though. You don’t get these very often.
 
iGRXY said:
What’s crazy is the NAM has become under done on QPF in the long range and with that look at H5 that probably is likely underdone for everyone.
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This is true. We saw it last week not showing a surface reflection in area of western NC and SC upstate that did see some light snowfall accumulation. Here the dynamics are much stronger and it’s not showing much at all over those same areas. I’m not saying that we should be seeing widespread 6”+ west of I-77 with that look, but with the dynamics in play I would expect a 1-3” widespread if this were to unfold
 
griteater said:
Couple of differences of note....1) Shortwave over MN & Dakotas is probably helping to add some negative tilt to the storm wave in the SE, and 2) ridging into Jersey and PA is helping to slow down the storm wave

Regardless, we are seeing some good trends fo sho
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Yeah, there’s definitely a difference that favors the wave to cutoff and flow into NC in January 2000, but I think the tilting of the wave was very intriguing.
 
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