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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

BufordWX said:
Take with massive grain of salt and even then I would say this is likely overdone.View attachment 59828
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These are also 10:1 ratios higher ratios mean more fun? Also with all this talk about dry air this dry air that ... almost every time I hear problems about dry air when the event ends up taking place dry air always seems to lose the fighting battle .. I always see us getting moist quicker than models show ... I’m not too worried either tbh from strictly a living here for 15 years and noticing the trends
 
tuckermcclendon said:
Chattanooga will cash that in right now... no questions asked.
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Ooh yeah... I still confused around here. Think we see off and on snow showers, but no accumulation. Like MRX keeps saying. Don't really see a mechanism for low end forecasts to bust high. That said, Temps are expected to go down to 32 by sunset tomorrow, and not get back about freezing until sometime Mid-morning Sat. And yet, lowest temp expected only around 20-22 at the airport. Can't buy a teen low even with this potent front.
 
Jessy89 said:
I’m going to be leaving 2pm or so Christmas Day to go to pigeon forge. I’ll take I40 there anyone think we will have any problems getting there? I’m hoping what snow falls is still there when we get there!


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U shud be ok but watch out for the gorge in Haywood it will probably be rippin.
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Webberweather53 said:
That particular sounding isn't dry though, it's nearly saturated wrt ice (which requires a lower saturation vapor pressure than liquid water btw), it's better to look at an area-averaged sounding which shows the potential for sub-cloud evaporation but it even still that doesn't look all that impressive to me and given that these showers if they develop will be convective in nature w/ absolute instability up to 650-700mb, any precip that falls it'll be heavy will have to overcome a subcloud layer that's actually pretty shallow & relatively moist (keep in mind we're cold so dews in the 20s means RH is actually high)

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Interesting. So it shows potential but it’s saturated with ice? Help me out here... I’m not used to reading such funky soundings. What is the sounding that I posted showing is literally occurring? Flurries reaching the ground? Connective fatties reaching the ground? It still seems like this moisture will have to overcome dry lower levels to me.
 
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