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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

Jessy89 said:
I’m going to be leaving 2pm or so Christmas Day to go to pigeon forge. I’ll take I40 there anyone think we will have any problems getting there? I’m hoping what snow falls is still there when we get there!


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The snow is definitely going to be there.


This is the NAM at 10 in the morning.

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Broken024 said:
Is hrrr the right model to pick up on this or is it most likely bs?
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One thing to keep in mind is that the placement of the bands at this juncture is unlikely to be accurate, even if they do form, so I wouldn’t worry too much about whether you are under a band or not at this point. That’ll be a nowcasting deal.

That being said, I’d urge caution using the HRRR or RAP towards the end of their ranges. It’s bitten me in the ass before. :D
 
deltadog03 said:
3KM NAM trending better a bit.
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I'm waiting for tonight's 0z RGEM run, but NAM is modeling the cold front being stronger than anticipated and changing a lot of NGA over to snow at the backend of the main band(sort of what GFS was showing days ago). It's not amazing with the snow showers/flurries associated with the upper level energy though. I'm with MyFrotho...it's probably underestimating the lift associated with the upper level trough.
 
superjames1992 said:
One thing to keep in mind is that the placement of the bands at this juncture is unlikely to be accurate, even if they do form, so I wouldn’t worry too much about whether you are under a band or not at this point. That’ll be a nowcasting deal.

That being said, I’d urge caution using the HRRR or RAP towards the end of their ranges. It’s bitten me in the ass before. :D
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Oh yea i get that. Just wondering if it's even possible the snow showers show up east of mountains like hrrr shows
 
The soundings don’t scream over-performing system here. Very dry, isothermal where it matters — but dry lower levels worry me. Dry as a bone from 900mb down. Such a cold airmass needs a heavy convective band to overcome and we may see one, but I doubt it will be widespread like the HRRR shows. Need to expect flurries, anything more is a bonus for sure.

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Jessy89 said:
I’m going to be leaving 2pm or so Christmas Day to go to pigeon forge. I’ll take I40 there anyone think we will have any problems getting there? I’m hoping what snow falls is still there when we get there!


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Take 441 all the way from Cherokee to Pigeon Forge! Up and over NewFound Gap. Do not take the yuppie route down I40!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Take 441 all the way from Cherokee to Pigeon Forge! Up and over NewFound Gap. Do not take the yuppie route down I40!
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My bet is the Smokey mountain parkway will be closed. I typically prefer going over the mountain. But a inch usually closes that down


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Damn if only this could happen, but @Jon made a good point, we’re battling advection of lower dewpoints at the same time, basically need these cells to train, even in that February 2013 Convective snow event there was virga/drizzle at the onset 466E6FD0-A7D2-45D1-AD56-2B0153EC3C76.png
 
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