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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

RGEM suggests North ATL suburbs can change from rain to snow/mix during the frontal precip. Just imagine if the 850s could crash just a little bit faster. Still quite a powerful front to change the temps so quickly.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Take 441 all the way from Cherokee to Pigeon Forge! Up and over NewFound Gap. Do not take the yuppie route down I40!
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I’ve had some close calls there over the years. Call me old but I may take 40 if I had a choice. Or be a real man and take the Cherahola Skyway.
 
Jon said:
The soundings don’t scream over-performing system here. Very dry, isothermal where it matters — but dry lower levels worry me. Dry as a bone from 900mb down. Such a cold airmass needs a heavy convective band to overcome and we may see one, but I doubt it will be widespread like the HRRR shows. Need to expect flurries, anything more is a bonus for sure.

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Yeah, kind of my concern as well. This screams flurries.


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Jon said:
The soundings don’t scream over-performing system here. Very dry, isothermal where it matters — but dry lower levels worry me. Dry as a bone from 900mb down. Such a cold airmass needs a heavy convective band to overcome and we may see one, but I doubt it will be widespread like the HRRR shows. Need to expect flurries, anything more is a bonus for sure.

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That particular sounding isn't dry though, it's nearly saturated wrt ice (which requires a lower saturation vapor pressure than liquid water btw), it's better to look at an area-averaged sounding which shows the potential for sub-cloud evaporation but it even still that doesn't look all that impressive to me and given that these showers if they develop will be convective in nature w/ absolute instability up to 650-700mb, any precip that falls it'll be heavy will have to overcome a subcloud layer that's actually pretty shallow & relatively moist (keep in mind we're cold so dews in the 20s means RH is actually high)

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Webberweather53 said:
That particular sounding isn't dry though, it's saturated wrt ice (which requires a lower saturation vapor pressure than liquid water), it's better to look at an area-averaged sounding which shows the potential for sub-cloud evaporation but it even still that doesn't look all that impressive to me and given that these showers if they develop will be convective in nature w/ absolute instability up to 650-700mb, any precip that falls it'll be heavy will have to overcome a subcloud layer that's actually pretty shallow & relatively moist (keep in mind we're cold so dews in the 20s means RH is actually high)

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Here's another sounding (area-averaged) from the NAM showing that low-level dry layer really isn't that dry or deep. Low-level relative humidity is 82% and the sub-cloud evaporating layer is only a few thousand feet deep. I'm really not worried about low-level dry air based on what I'm seeing from the CAMS, at least from models I tend to trust anyways

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