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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

Chazwin said:
I agree... just looking at the some of the soundings 25:1 ratios wouldn’t be out of the question with that set up
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For sure. I think you're probably in a good spot. But anyone in nc or SC could be. It looks quite scattered I'd even say widespread for areas in the southern piedmont. And if you get under one of those bands it's game on

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accu35 said:
Is there any chance this could end up further west in Bama?
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I'd say it's unlikely mainly because of timing. The main reason the HRRR/RAP shows this amping up over the Carolinas/parts of GA is because it's coming during the middle of the day. Solar daytime heating creates lift and instability needed for convective showers/squalls.
 
Chazwin said:
With those 850s being that low, any snow that falls would likely be very dry and fluffy, so an area that gets under any of those bands could get quick coating to an inch because you simply don’t need as much moisture. Back in the mid 2000s there was a quick convective burst of snow that went through the Raleigh area that put down 1.5 inches of snow with only .04 liquid equivalent.
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Yes, the snow to liquid ratios will be very high in a set up like this. Possibly 20 to 1 in some instances.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I'd say it's unlikely mainly because of timing. The main reason the HRRR/RAP shows this amping up over the Carolinas/parts of GA is because it's coming during the middle of the day. Solar daytime heating creates lift and instability needed for convective showers/squalls.
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Yep that to, some areas get up to 100-200 joules of SBcape and 50-100jkgs of 0-3km cape in the Carolinas, thundersnow would be on the table IF that was right
 
Chazwin said:
With those 850s being that low, any snow that falls would likely be very dry and fluffy, so an area that gets under any of those bands could get quick coating to an inch because you simply don’t need as much moisture. Back in the mid 2000s there was a quick convective burst of snow that went through the Raleigh area that put down 1.5 inches of snow with only .04 liquid equivalent.
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If I remember correctly the January 2018 event we had high ratio snow and we pulled out an inch idk what our liquid equivalent was tho. The flurries/snow showers does try to give me a dusting on the hrrr but if we could get a slightly further tick south I could be in business for more.
 
NAM still trying to develop a little bit of N. GA anafrontal snow on the backend of the FROPA precip band.

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_22.png


nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_23.png
 
Caution..there's a lot of excitement over the long range hrrr and rap...dont go all in yet I beg you. Is it possible..yes..is it exciting...yes.
I hope its right even though mby isn't in play on those maps. But temper your expectations for now.
 
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