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⚡️ Christmas naders ? ⚡️ (12/23 - 12/25 severe weather threat)

Lol uh oh. Welp, here comes an outbreak
I’m wondering how far west we can get this atp, more we slow that trough down and allow it to tilt much more favorably, the further west and further more the parameters will be enhanced (doesn’t that remind you of a setup) yay, seems like we can trend towards more severe only nowadays and not snow
 
The Storm Relative Helicity is freaking off the charts Thursday evening. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen numbers this high just ahead of the squall line.

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Don’t want to sleep on that severe weather risk for western areas tomorrow/tomorrow night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tornado or two along the gulf coast as the storms along the cold front start to get their act together. Looks like the SPC agrees as well to an extent. Already mentioning possible slight risk regions that could be added in future outlooks.


LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG, SUPPORTING STRONGER
STORMS WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT AND DEEP UPDRAFTS. ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INTRODUCE 5%

TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK, BUT TWO AREAS MAY MERIT AN
UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ONE IS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODEST HEATING MAY RESULT IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. THE OTHER IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT

SOUTHERN AL WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
EE2EF94E-E5DF-4874-8D7D-6182748A7692.jpeg6DFAD69A-103F-4F25-90D1-6A6CCBF92E2C.gif
 
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Probably going to be a pretty solid wind event along the actual line of stormsnamconus_ref_frzn_seus_fh63-72.gif
Winds are rolling at 925 and 850, not going to take a particularly deep line of convection to start forcing that down
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850wh.us_ma.png
 
Pretty solid squall line on the 12k nam. Gonna be interesting to see if it's close with soundings because of it is then it's certainly got potential to be a bad xmas eve.
 

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Looks like the threat is slowly inching west too. Would not take much more to put my area in it. If timing slips by just 2-3 hours it could get rough. The NAM also has a wedge front in play too, but keeps me on the cool side just long enough for the dynamics to slide by.

Edit : That was 12z NAM. Have not looked at 18z yet.
 
Here’s what I’m thinking, areas in the first circle have a isolated tornado threat, but a much bigger chance of damaging winds, it doesn’t take much to drag down those strong winds aloft with this sort of setup, LLJ is around 70-80kts which is insane
Areas around 77/East have a better shot at isolated tornadoes/Convective damaging winds gusts


2nd circle is where there’s a higher tornado threat, as some isolated supercells May form around this area, and is also where the best instability will be, the squall line should have better access to cape in ENC/ESC
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The kind of parameters the NAM is currently spitting out remind me a little of the Easter Outbreak we had earlier this year :oops:

Cape values are definitely lower with this setup... but these high shear/low cape setups are vastly unpredictable..

I've seen setups like this produce next to nothing to surprise EF4 tornadoes...
 
Hrrr is basically a QLCS with embedded rotation with storms out ahead, a QLCS like that would drag plenty of wind down, hrrr also has some super-cellular looking stuff east A6A7D338-50E3-4559-A728-19E8198A4208.pngE56A7958-8407-4C56-A9D5-90CB60283276.pngF7C775C7-D6C2-4473-BA1B-790574C5B02D.png948436DD-9188-469C-9327-DEB80ED9037B.png
 
Sort of concerns me that line fractures as it heads into some of the better cape and dynamics over towards ENC/ESC. Those semi-discrete cells spell trouble potentially.
Yeah I’m honestly thinking between 77-95 there’s more of a wind/isolated tor threat while areas East of 95 have a more higher tor threat, I imagine they’ll expand the slight west and perhaps introduce our first enhanced in a while
 
Here’s what I’m thinking, areas in the first circle have a isolated tornado threat, but a much bigger chance of damaging winds, it doesn’t take much to drag down those strong winds aloft with this sort of setup, LLJ is around 70-80kts which is insane
Areas around 77/East have a better shot at isolated tornadoes/Convective damaging winds gusts


2nd circle is where there’s a higher tornado threat, as some isolated supercells May form around this area, and is also where the best instability will be, the squall line should have better access to cape in ENC/ESC
View attachment 59505
Hrrr is basically a QLCS with embedded rotation with storms out ahead, a QLCS like that would drag plenty of wind down, hrrr also has some super-cellular looking stuff east View attachment 59524View attachment 59525View attachment 59526View attachment 59527
That's getting awfully close to me with that line. If that 19z map verifies, there will be very widespread wind damage over much of central NC and SC. Then maybe a big hail and tornado threat from Florence and Raleigh east when the line breaks up if the next map works out.
 
Yeah I’m honestly thinking between 77-95 there’s more of a wind/isolated tor threat while areas East of 95 have a more higher tor threat, I imagine they’ll expand the slight west and perhaps introduce our first enhanced in a while
I mentioned this a few weeks ago that the last Enhanced risk anywhere was on September 5th. Pretty unusual to go 3 and a half months without one.
 
Very, even tho winter weather is possible with blocking, I wouldn’t sleep on severe either

Not sure how old you are but when I was in grade school I remember having to take cover In the halls for tornado warnings and then the next day we got out early for snow.....maybe 1985 or 86
 
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