Shaggy
Member
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⚡️ Christmas naders ? ⚡️ (12/23 - 12/25 severe weather threat)
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
BHS1975
Member
HRRR looking rough.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Here’s what I’m thinking, areas in the first circle have a isolated tornado threat, but a much bigger chance of damaging winds, it doesn’t take much to drag down those strong winds aloft with this sort of setup, LLJ is around 70-80kts which is insane
Areas around 77/East have a better shot at isolated tornadoes/Convective damaging winds gusts
2nd circle is where there’s a higher tornado threat, as some isolated supercells May form around this area, and is also where the best instability will be, the squall line should have better access to cape in ENC/ESC
Areas around 77/East have a better shot at isolated tornadoes/Convective damaging winds gusts
2nd circle is where there’s a higher tornado threat, as some isolated supercells May form around this area, and is also where the best instability will be, the squall line should have better access to cape in ENC/ESC
Stormsfury
Member
The kind of parameters the NAM is currently spitting out remind me a little of the Easter Outbreak we had earlier this year
Cape values are definitely lower with this setup... but these high shear/low cape setups are vastly unpredictable..
I've seen setups like this produce next to nothing to surprise EF4 tornadoes...
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
While not necessarily a tornado threat for areas further west due to lack of instability. (However after last weeks event in Bessemer who needs instability) This looks like a very potent gradient wind threat for sure.
Hrrr is basically a QLCS with embedded rotation with storms out ahead, a QLCS like that would drag plenty of wind down, hrrr also has some super-cellular looking stuff east 
Shaggy
Member
Sort of concerns me that line fractures as it heads into some of the better cape and dynamics over towards ENC/ESC. Those semi-discrete cells spell trouble potentially.
Yeah I’m honestly thinking between 77-95 there’s more of a wind/isolated tor threat while areas East of 95 have a more higher tor threat, I imagine they’ll expand the slight west and perhaps introduce our first enhanced in a while
JHS
Member
That's getting awfully close to me with that line. If that 19z map verifies, there will be very widespread wind damage over much of central NC and SC. Then maybe a big hail and tornado threat from Florence and Raleigh east when the line breaks up if the next map works out.
I mentioned this a few weeks ago that the last Enhanced risk anywhere was on September 5th. Pretty unusual to go 3 and a half months without one.
Very, even tho winter weather is possible with blocking, I wouldn’t sleep on severe either
Shaggy
Member
Not sure how old you are but when I was in grade school I remember having to take cover In the halls for tornado warnings and then the next day we got out early for snow.....maybe 1985 or 86
NAM is even further west.....
JHS
Member
Yep it sure is. About 2-4 hours slower putting me in the game now. Shows a solid line coming through here around 4 now with dewpoints touching 60. Higher than that from I-77 east. 850 winds right at 70 knots over me too as that line moves through.
Looks Fun here 
Looks even more fun out East
Looks even more fun out East
JHS
Member
Nasty looking wind event from Raleigh and east in NC. Looks like it stays a solid line on this run.
peep the EML 
Shaggy
Member
Exactly what am I looking at here
Brown = dry at 700mb, and that’s the EML, it sorta washes out East, if it somehow remains stronger East that could magnify the isolated supercell threat
You can see it on this sounding at 700mb
