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⚡️ Christmas naders ? ⚡️ (12/23 - 12/25 severe weather threat)

Myfrotho704_ said:
Brown = dry at 700mb, and that’s the EML, it sorta washes out East, if it somehow remains stronger East that could magnify the isolated supercell threat
You can see it on this sounding at 700mb View attachment 59537
Click to expand...

Couldnt that dry air layer increase the chance of straight line winds though? Get some evap and a cold pool to come crashing down dragging those high winds aloft?
 
Wow my area looking dangerous on your maps fro. Interesting they seem to like that eastern wake Franklin county area last few days on your supercell composite map. Think I may be tornado magnet anyhow . Had 2 cross yards from me last 10 years . Closest pass was 2010 by an ef0 that formed over head and touched down across street, then 2019 we had surprise ef2 come within perhaps within a mere football field or 2 in distance away from my house based on where I saw the damage !
 
Hey gang
Can someone go into more details about the timeframe for this event? I have to work in a dialysis clinic in union county that has no generator so any info is appreciated thanks for all the work you folks do on this site!
 
Most models are still showing a pre-frontal trough near the US HWY 1 corridor w/ the potential for discrete (& perhaps initially elevated) supercells ahead of the main action in places like Fayetteville & Raleigh-Durham. Notice the precip max extending from Myrtle Beach to RDU-FAY

1608729286754.png
 
The HREF also shows this secondary max in precip near the US HWY 1 & I-95 corridors ahead of the main squall line that comes thru at night on Xmas Eve. Most soundings support the potential for elevated supercells beginning as early as tomorrow morning and there's probably going to be a locally enhanced threat for damaging winds & hail in places like Raleigh-Durham & Fayetteville if this comes to fruition. Given favorable low-level shear, instability, & sufficient lapse rates, we may see an isolated tornado or two if any of the cells can become surface-based.

Ep7Q-1IWMAUZyIS.jpeg
 
12z hrrr went a little crazy with the cluster that moves in off of the atlantic along and east of 95 tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main bandhrrr_ref_frzn_seus_34 (1).png
 
Gonna be a long day.....though still lots of questions about coverage, timing blah blah blah the usual

SPC

However, several factors are difficult to
ascertain at this forecast range, including the speed of the cold
front, quality of the moisture return, and coverage of
surface-based, warm-sector storms. These factors preclude
introducing higher tornado probabilities with this outlook, but
upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks.
 
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