Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol uh oh. Welp, here comes an outbreak
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⚡️ Christmas naders ? ⚡️ (12/23 - 12/25 severe weather threat)
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Lol uh oh. Welp, here comes an outbreak
I’m wondering how far west we can get this atp, more we slow that trough down and allow it to tilt much more favorably, the further west and further more the parameters will be enhanced (doesn’t that remind you of a setup) yay, seems like we can trend towards more severe only nowadays and not snow
Easter Sunday was the first and lastThe Storm Relative Helicity is freaking off the charts Thursday evening. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen numbers this high just ahead of the squall line.
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Don’t want to sleep on that severe weather risk for western areas tomorrow/tomorrow night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tornado or two along the gulf coast as the storms along the cold front start to get their act together. Looks like the SPC agrees as well to an extent. Already mentioning possible slight risk regions that could be added in future outlooks.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG, SUPPORTING STRONGER
STORMS WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT AND DEEP UPDRAFTS. ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INTRODUCE 5%
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK, BUT TWO AREAS MAY MERIT AN
UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ONE IS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODEST HEATING MAY RESULT IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. THE OTHER IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN AL WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG, SUPPORTING STRONGER
STORMS WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT AND DEEP UPDRAFTS. ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INTRODUCE 5%
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK, BUT TWO AREAS MAY MERIT AN
UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ONE IS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODEST HEATING MAY RESULT IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. THE OTHER IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN AL WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
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Wait what even happened on Easter? Can someone post the storm reports?
this time isn’t much of the SE, but for areas further East is where the highest threat is this time
Second half is the striking stuff .. any cells in the warm sector will most likely go super cellular
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not a fan of these storms that get going on their own ahead of everything. Some decent UH streaks associated with these
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Probably going to be a pretty solid wind event along the actual line of storms
Winds are rolling at 925 and 850, not going to take a particularly deep line of convection to start forcing that down
Winds are rolling at 925 and 850, not going to take a particularly deep line of convection to start forcing that down
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12km NAM is showing potential for elevated supercells in central NC & eastern SC as early as Xmas Eve morning, primary threat of hail
Shaggy
Member
Welp at least we’re getting some sort of ice on Christmas ?
BHS1975
Member
Great #warm sectored 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The models sure look worse than just a level 1 threat here.
JHS
Member
Looks like the threat is slowly inching west too. Would not take much more to put my area in it. If timing slips by just 2-3 hours it could get rough. The NAM also has a wedge front in play too, but keeps me on the cool side just long enough for the dynamics to slide by.
Edit : That was 12z NAM. Have not looked at 18z yet.
Edit : That was 12z NAM. Have not looked at 18z yet.