Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol uh oh. Welp, here comes an outbreak
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⚡️ Christmas naders ? ⚡️ (12/23 - 12/25 severe weather threat)
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Lol uh oh. Welp, here comes an outbreak
I’m wondering how far west we can get this atp, more we slow that trough down and allow it to tilt much more favorably, the further west and further more the parameters will be enhanced (doesn’t that remind you of a setup) yay, seems like we can trend towards more severe only nowadays and not snow
Easter Sunday was the first and lastThe Storm Relative Helicity is freaking off the charts Thursday evening. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen numbers this high just ahead of the squall line.
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BufordWX
Member
Don’t want to sleep on that severe weather risk for western areas tomorrow/tomorrow night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tornado or two along the gulf coast as the storms along the cold front start to get their act together. Looks like the SPC agrees as well to an extent. Already mentioning possible slight risk regions that could be added in future outlooks.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG, SUPPORTING STRONGER
STORMS WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT AND DEEP UPDRAFTS. ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INTRODUCE 5%
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK, BUT TWO AREAS MAY MERIT AN
UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ONE IS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODEST HEATING MAY RESULT IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. THE OTHER IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN AL WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG, SUPPORTING STRONGER
STORMS WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT AND DEEP UPDRAFTS. ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INTRODUCE 5%
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK, BUT TWO AREAS MAY MERIT AN
UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ONE IS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODEST HEATING MAY RESULT IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. THE OTHER IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN AL WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
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Wait what even happened on Easter? Can someone post the storm reports?
this time isn’t much of the SE, but for areas further East is where the highest threat is this time
Second half is the striking stuff .. any cells in the warm sector will most likely go super cellular
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not a fan of these storms that get going on their own ahead of everything. Some decent UH streaks associated with these
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Probably going to be a pretty solid wind event along the actual line of storms
Winds are rolling at 925 and 850, not going to take a particularly deep line of convection to start forcing that down
Winds are rolling at 925 and 850, not going to take a particularly deep line of convection to start forcing that down
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12km NAM is showing potential for elevated supercells in central NC & eastern SC as early as Xmas Eve morning, primary threat of hail
Shaggy
Member
Welp at least we’re getting some sort of ice on Christmas ?
BHS1975
Member
Great #warm sectored 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The models sure look worse than just a level 1 threat here.
JHS
Member
Looks like the threat is slowly inching west too. Would not take much more to put my area in it. If timing slips by just 2-3 hours it could get rough. The NAM also has a wedge front in play too, but keeps me on the cool side just long enough for the dynamics to slide by.
Edit : That was 12z NAM. Have not looked at 18z yet.
Edit : That was 12z NAM. Have not looked at 18z yet.
Shaggy
Member
BHS1975
Member
HRRR looking rough.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Here’s what I’m thinking, areas in the first circle have a isolated tornado threat, but a much bigger chance of damaging winds, it doesn’t take much to drag down those strong winds aloft with this sort of setup, LLJ is around 70-80kts which is insane
Areas around 77/East have a better shot at isolated tornadoes/Convective damaging winds gusts
2nd circle is where there’s a higher tornado threat, as some isolated supercells May form around this area, and is also where the best instability will be, the squall line should have better access to cape in ENC/ESC
Areas around 77/East have a better shot at isolated tornadoes/Convective damaging winds gusts
2nd circle is where there’s a higher tornado threat, as some isolated supercells May form around this area, and is also where the best instability will be, the squall line should have better access to cape in ENC/ESC
Stormsfury
Member
The kind of parameters the NAM is currently spitting out remind me a little of the Easter Outbreak we had earlier this year
Cape values are definitely lower with this setup... but these high shear/low cape setups are vastly unpredictable..
I've seen setups like this produce next to nothing to surprise EF4 tornadoes...
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
While not necessarily a tornado threat for areas further west due to lack of instability. (However after last weeks event in Bessemer who needs instability) This looks like a very potent gradient wind threat for sure.
Hrrr is basically a QLCS with embedded rotation with storms out ahead, a QLCS like that would drag plenty of wind down, hrrr also has some super-cellular looking stuff east 
Shaggy
Member
Sort of concerns me that line fractures as it heads into some of the better cape and dynamics over towards ENC/ESC. Those semi-discrete cells spell trouble potentially.
Yeah I’m honestly thinking between 77-95 there’s more of a wind/isolated tor threat while areas East of 95 have a more higher tor threat, I imagine they’ll expand the slight west and perhaps introduce our first enhanced in a while
JHS
Member
That's getting awfully close to me with that line. If that 19z map verifies, there will be very widespread wind damage over much of central NC and SC. Then maybe a big hail and tornado threat from Florence and Raleigh east when the line breaks up if the next map works out.
BufordWX
Member
I mentioned this a few weeks ago that the last Enhanced risk anywhere was on September 5th. Pretty unusual to go 3 and a half months without one.
Very, even tho winter weather is possible with blocking, I wouldn’t sleep on severe either
Shaggy
Member
Not sure how old you are but when I was in grade school I remember having to take cover In the halls for tornado warnings and then the next day we got out early for snow.....maybe 1985 or 86
NAM is even further west.....
JHS
Member
Yep it sure is. About 2-4 hours slower putting me in the game now. Shows a solid line coming through here around 4 now with dewpoints touching 60. Higher than that from I-77 east. 850 winds right at 70 knots over me too as that line moves through.
Looks Fun here 
Looks even more fun out East
Looks even more fun out East
JHS
Member
Nasty looking wind event from Raleigh and east in NC. Looks like it stays a solid line on this run.
peep the EML 
Shaggy
Member
Exactly what am I looking at here
Brown = dry at 700mb, and that’s the EML, it sorta washes out East, if it somehow remains stronger East that could magnify the isolated supercell threat
You can see it on this sounding at 700mb
