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Pattern Jarring January

1300m said:
It's just an error in the ptype algorithm (probably just a WxBell thing); that precip would be snow in real life. With temps from 925 to 850mb well below freezing, the 1000-850mb thickness is most assuredly below 1300m (hey, that looks familiar!), and super cold from 850 to 700mb, so the ptype would be snow.
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Actually the critical 1000-850 thickness for snow is 1290m. 1300m would be mixed most likely.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf


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H5 is ugly vs previous run. Meh. EW!

Might still work out though, this run.
 
I'm not sure what to interpret with this kind of case at H5 but the wave looks more strung out (I'm tired). This actually might be even better westward.
 
BHS1975 said:
Actually the critical 1000-850 thickness for snow is 1290m. 1300m would be mixed most likely.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf


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Raleigh would find a way to mix with 1300 lol... Or if we have the cold air I'm sure we'd come up with a way to get sucker holed yet again as was the case in the Jan 2003 event where a meso low developed over the western piedmont and a coastal formed as the entire longwave began to shift east leaving Raleigh in the dry slot with an inch or two of snow. Meanwhile areas towards the outer banks and far western piedmont observed nearly a foot of snow
 
Well, looks like my guess might be right=less defined shortwave=no late blooming coastal at all.

Edit: Actually not bad for eastern NC but if the low comes it's going to be even later.
 
gfs_asnow_seus_19.png

gem_asnow_seus_18.png
 
So the Canadian got better, and the GFS not so much for some. That's okay; I will take the GGEM + EURO over the GFS any day.

Lets not forget how long it took the GFS to catch on to last minute changes a week or so ago. But H5 was ugly for the Carolinas.
 
Shawn said:
So the Canadian got better, and the GFS not so much for some. That's okay; I will take the GGEM + EURO over the GFS any day.

Lets not forget how long it took the GFS to catch on to last minute changes a week or so ago. But H5 was ugly for the Carolinas.
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Yep. Lose the Euro and that’s a whole nothing story.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Unless we see the Euro trend in the wrong direction, no reason to be negative, yet. It was really just the last couple GFS's that had just kind of gotten on board.
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CMC did good with the system couple weeks the, with the snow hitting south La. Gfs was late showing that senero
 
1300m said:
Not with what is just depicted haha. If it returns to a similar solution from 12z and 18z, then certainly.
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idk, hopefully it picks up little more steam like what the euro showing. I guess the wise thing to go with, is a blend of everything and most on here would be satisfied lol.
 
To see the GEFS substantially change solutions on the mean like that, lets me know the Euro is about to look worse.

We aren't just talking about the GFS in this situation. It's own ensembles jumped ship.
 
Meh, I don't know about that on the Euro. The GFS ensembles were barely showing a thing until 12z/18z on Friday.
 
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