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Pattern Jarring January

Clayton Reid said:
Can we realistically expect it to trend back in our favor?
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It's a weather model.It just started showing the cold. The cold on the 2 runs of the Euro and EPS aren't even a trend yet.
The idea is energy flying around, and we are just now trying to figure out if the cold modeled will be realized.

Weather models should not be used as a forecast or as gospel. They are tools.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: KATL's coldest still down to 14 F 9vs the 0Z Euro's 12 F) on 1/17 during strong cold air advection. On 1/18, the cold is radiative meaning KATL won't be nearly as cold but places that radiate well would be down into the mid to upper teens again per the run.
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Wow. And the snowstorm goes right out the window. Truly pathetic.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Wow. And the snowstorm goes right out the window. Truly pathetic.
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it was never in the window in the first place. There's no point imo in worrying about the details for something like this, which could easily turn out to be nothing being that it is so far out, other than for pure entertainment. I said last night I hoped others would ignore the 0Z Euro snow figuring it would likely go away but I figured it wouldn't be ignored. This is merely a very random guess way way out in the future.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Can we realistically expect it to trend back in our favor?
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You can realistically expect it to change some from run-to-run from what it's showing now. Lot's of lead time and changes happening every run right now. Whether or not it's more "favorable" for anyone's backyard is subjective.
 
Shawn said:
It's a weather model.It just started showing the cold. The cold on the 2 runs of the Euro and EPS aren't even a trend yet.
The idea is energy flying around, and we are just now trying to figure out if the cold modeled will be realized.

Weather models should not be used as a forecast or as gospel. They are tools.
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If things trends back in our favor it'll be a sight to see for sure. We lost so many times it's ridiculous, so I'm just pessimistic and skeptical about our chances now sense it always turns out to be a Trainwreck in the end.
 
Clayton Reid said:
If things trends back in our favor it'll be a sight to see for sure. We lost so many times it's ridiculous, so I'm just pessimistic and skeptical about our chances now sense it always turns out to be a Trainwreck in the end.
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When you approach all of this from the standpoint of meaningful snowfall being an infrequent if not rare event for the mid and Deep South, it’s easy to accept. Still plenty of opportunities possible.


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GaWx said:
Relax. Breathe deeply. Life will go on.
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Yeah, that's for sure. I give up. This is literally to the point where its almost laughable. Those people at North most be laughing at us that we can get all this cold and no snow to show for it. Pathetic haha
 
Clayton Reid said:
Yeah, that's for sure. I give up. This is literally to the point where its almost laughable. Those people at North most be laughing at us that we can get all this cold and no snow to show for it. Pathetic haha
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Reality check: you live in the south in a city where the average annual snowfall is just over 2” meaning that we can go several winters in a row without anything. That “threat” is in the long range and has showed up a few times.. no strong signal.. can’t lose something if you don’t have it.
 
Lots of support for a system end of next week on the 12z eps . Timing and what happens in the NE will play a huge part as to how it turns out
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EastAtlwx said:
Reality check: you live in the south in a city where the average annual snowfall is just over 2” meaning that we can go several winters in a row without anything. That “threat” is in the long range and has showed up a few times.. no strong signal.. can’t lose something if you don’t have it.
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Yeah. It sucks. I always hope that it'll change one day. We need a ice age or something. Living this reality makes weather boring in the winter. Nothing is more interesting to me in winter than snow other than that it's just warmth, sun and thunderstorms. Not really exciting if u ask me.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Yeah. It sucks. I always hope that it'll change one day. We need a ice age or something. Living this reality makes weather boring in the winter. Nothing is more interesting to me in winter than snow other than that it's just warmth, sun and thunderstorms. Not really exciting if u ask me.
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A mini ice age would likely be too cold to snow and argue for suppression of any potential Wintry weather. I'm not sure you would want that.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Im more inclined to think that is correct with the warmth. I don't see a good deal of potential with this. I mean it's not like it'll get back cold when the system comes because we all know the warmth eventually wins out it seems when moisture comes back. So
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There is potential with this system. While it is warm this run...I’m not sold that the warmth will win out.


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Clayton Reid said:
Ok, can I ask what are your expectations in regards to winter weather? I mean 1-3 inches of snow may be good, but to me it seems like some are overdue for 6+. I mean come on. With gulf moisture and cold air 6+ inches down here shouldn't be to much to ask. Yet we can hardly get an inch sometimes. I wish we could have storms like 1936, 1940, etc. Again. Yet even that seems like a once in a lifetime and out of our reach.
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6 inches of snow and Atlanta should never be mentioned in the same sentence. You are expecting a once or twice in a lifetime storm to be the norm. I live north of Nashville and I’ve had one storm in 11 years that went over 6 inches. Heck even 5 inches I can count on one hand how many of those happened. Your expectations are way to high for areas that are 200-300 miles north of you yet alone Atlanta.
 
Clayton, the Atlanta area just experienced a once in a lifetime type snowstorm just a month ago. Not everybody got so lucky, but the odds of something like that happening in the next 20 years is very unlikely.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Yeah. It sucks. I always hope that it'll change one day. We need a ice age or something. Living this reality makes weather boring in the winter. Nothing is more interesting to me in winter than snow other than that it's just warmth, sun and thunderstorms. Not really exciting if u ask me.
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Well when you look at this winter, had a rare deep south snowstorm a month ago and then another one last week. Not to mention there may be one in the mid south tomorrow. This week has been the first time in quite a while that it's hit 70 and it's about to go back into the deep freezer with the potential for something next week and it's only early/mid January.

I'll take this over the last two winters any day.
 
RollTide18 said:
Well when you look at this winter, had a rare deep south snowstorm a month ago and then another one last week. Not to mention there may be one in the mid south tomorrow. This week has been the first time in quite a while that it's hit 70 and it's about to go back into the deep freezer with the potential for something next week and it's only early/mid January.

I'll take this over the last two winters any day.
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Yeah, l think maybe that early snow may have gotten some hopes up for more snow, but this has been a lot better winter than we had in a long time for me and it's just Jan. 11th.
 
Odds are not everyone in here is going to get snow this winter. For Clayton, everyone speaks about how Atlanta got this big snow but for his back yard that probably wasn't the case. I grew up in the upstate and regularly got pounded with ice and 3+ inch snowstorms. That hasn't been the case as of late. The snow drought is real and we are all feeling it
 
RDU individual 6"+ SN/IP storms

In addition to my taking out 2/2015 thanks to 1300m's valuable help in telling me it was from two storms, I'm also taking out 1/1982 for the same reason. Also, I decided to go back to 1886-7. I found 44 6"+ storms over a period of 131 years or an average of 1 every 3 years. Prior to 1950, the rate was a bit higher with 1 every 2.6 years. Since 1950, the rate has been a bit lower with 1 every 3.5 years. When starting with the active 1980s, the rate has actually been even lower at 1 every 4.2 years. Since the 1990s, it has been a mere 1 every 7 years!

# of 6"+ SN/IP RDU for FULL decades:

1890s: 5
1900s: 1
1910s: 5
1920s: 4
1930s: 6
1940s: 3
1950s: 2
1960s: 6
1970s: 2
1980s: 5
1990s: 0
2000s: 3

# of winters with two 6"+ storms: 6 (1892-3, 1898-9, 1926-7, 1935-6, 1947-8, 1959-60) but none since 1959-60!
# of months with two: 2 (2/1948, 3/1960)

# by month:
Dec: 7
Jan: 12
Fab Feb: 16
Mar: 8
Apr: 1
 
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GaWx said:
RDU individual 6"+ SN/IP storms

In addition to my taking out 2/2015 thanks to 1300m's valuable help in telling me it was from two storms, I'm also taking out 1/1982 for the same reason. Also, I decided to go back to 1886-7. I found 44 6"+ storms over a period of 131 years or an average of 1 every 3 years. Prior to 1950, the rate was a bit higher with 1 every 2.6 years. Since 1950, the rate has been a bit lower with 1 every 3.5 years. When starting with the active 1980s, the rate has actually been even lower at 1 every 4.2 years. Since the 1990s, it has been a mere 1 every 7 years!

# of 6"+ SN/IP RDU for FULL decades:

1890s: 5
1900s: 1
1910s: 5
1920s: 4
1930s: 6
1940s: 3
1950s: 2
1960s: 6
1970s: 2
1980s: 5
1990s: 0
2000s: 3

# of winters with two 6"+ storms: 5 (1898-9, 1926-7, 1935-6, 1947-8, 1959-60) but none since 1959-60!
# of months with two: 2 (2/1948, 3/1960)

# by month:
Dec: 7
Jan: 12
Fab Feb: 16
Mar: 8
Apr: 1
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That's some great research Larry +1

Fab Feb ftw
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Clayton, the Atlanta area just experienced a once in a lifetime type snowstorm just a month ago. Not everybody got so lucky, but the odds of something like that happening in the next 20 years is very unlikely.
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Odds are not everyone in here is going to get snow this winter. For Clayton, everyone speaks about how Atlanta got this big snow but for his back yard that probably wasn't the case. I grew up in the upstate and regularly got pounded with ice and 3+ inch snowstorms. That hasn't been the case as of late. The snow drought is real and we are all feeling it
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Odds are not everyone in here is going to get snow this winter. For Clayton, everyone speaks about how Atlanta got this big snow but for his back yard that probably wasn't the case. I grew up in the upstate and regularly got pounded with ice and 3+ inch snowstorms. That hasn't been the case as of late. The snow drought is real and we are all feeling it
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Exactly my point.
 
GaWx said:
RDU individual 6"+ SN/IP storms

In addition to my taking out 2/2015 thanks to 1300m's valuable help in telling me it was from two storms, I'm also taking out 1/1982 for the same reason. Also, I decided to go back to 1886-7. I found 44 6"+ storms over a period of 131 years or an average of 1 every 3 years. Prior to 1950, the rate was a bit higher with 1 every 2.6 years. Since 1950, the rate has been a bit lower with 1 every 3.5 years. When starting with the active 1980s, the rate has actually been even lower at 1 every 4.2 years. Since the 1990s, it has been a mere 1 every 7 years!

# of 6"+ SN/IP RDU for FULL decades:

1890s: 5
1900s: 1
1910s: 5
1920s: 4
1930s: 6
1940s: 3
1950s: 2
1960s: 6
1970s: 2
1980s: 5
1990s: 0
2000s: 3

# of winters with two 6"+ storms: 5 (1898-9, 1926-7, 1935-6, 1947-8, 1959-60) but none since 1959-60!
# of months with two: 2 (2/1948, 3/1960)

# by month:
Dec: 7
Jan: 12
Fab Feb: 16
Mar: 8
Apr: 1
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I know the Christmas storm in 2010 was over 6 inches of snow. I can't recall if we've had a storm here with over 6 inches since then.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know the Christmas storm in 2010 was over 6 inches of snow. I can't recall if we've had a storm here with over 6 inches since then.
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None since 12/2010. I didn't include the 2010s and 1880s in the decade list because they're not full.
 
olhausen said:
6 inches of snow and Atlanta should never be mentioned in the same sentence. You are expecting a once or twice in a lifetime storm to be the norm. I live north of Nashville and I’ve had one storm in 11 years that went over 6 inches. Heck even 5 inches I can count on one hand how many of those happenvery few winters ed. Your expectations are way to high for areas that are 200-300 miles north of you yet alone Atlanta.
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I have fared better than you living in N GA and that's not 200-300 miles north, as you know. Between Adairsville and Ellijay, there have been 4 maybe 5 that fit that category in this decade.
 
Larry is cranking out some amazing stuff today.
Thanks, Man!
So is 1300m.
Thanks, Man!
All this discussion about Atl snow; take heart - If it snows here again before 2089, it means Armageddon ... LOL
If this is too much banter - some Mod alert me and I'll delete!
But, again, Larry and 1300m, and everyone else, Thanks!
Really good reading.
Best,
Phil
 
Gfs keeps trending towards trying to generate a little light snow along the fro t next Tuesday like the Euro has. Would be very light IF it happens

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DixieBlizzard said:
I have fared better than you living in N GA and that's not 200-300 miles north, as you know. Between Adairsville and Ellijay, there have been 4 maybe 5 that fit that category in this decade.
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It seems to drop as you get closer. I can say I have seen 2 this decade, maybe 3 if you count 2014 or 2015, I can't remember which, but 2 inches fell, then partially melted, then 5 fell.
 
Storm5 said:
Gfs keeps trending towards trying to generate a little light snow along the fro t next Tuesday like the Euro has. Would be very light IF it happens

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Just need the western ridge to trend further west. Get the trough to dig more and more to be able to draw a bit of moisture from the gulf...it's trying....a bit.
 
Either way, the cold is coming back. This is going to feel absolutely wonderful after tolerable weather the last few days.:mad:

Why can't we just warm up, and stay there, if Winter storms are not coming!!?
 
ForsythSnow said:
It seems to drop as you get closer. I can say I have seen 2 this decade, maybe 3 if you count 2014 or 2015, I can't remember which, but 2 inches fell, then partially melted, then 5 fell.
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That really surprises me. You are north of Cumming? It's got to be a topography issue there. Do you tend to get more ice there?
 
Hard freezes for Phil becoming more and more likely 1/18 and 1/19! With Gainesville's championship level radiational abilities, I think they'd get it on 1/19. The 1/18 one would be with wind/advective, Didn't I also predict this when I predicted warmth to dominate 1/16-2/28? ;)
 
GaWx said:
Hard freezes for Phil becoming more and more likely 1/18 and 1/19! With Gainesville's championship level radiational abilities, I think they'd get it on 1/19. The 1/18 one would be with wind/advective, Didn't I also predict this when I predicted warmth to dominate 1/16-2/28? ;)
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Larry,
You're knockin' on my back door! Been warning folks here for over a week, the radiator is about to crank ... ;)
I avoid MBY posts here (unless it's something truly amazing), so thanks for thinking of me. :cool:
BTW, we'll see what the pattern does, but if it happens, Feb is always our best month way down here to have "Tony lovin'" weather. Nina and MJO give me real doubts this year, :(, but we'll see.
Again, Thanks, and
Best!
Phil

Edit: Also adding the PNA in the mix as a cause of some doubt, but the models just don't get to February yet ...
 
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