EPS mean for the lowest low here is 11, well lower than the last cold snap. This is one chaotic roller coaster.
Yeah, TN and maybe AL will have the snow / ice cover this time, they could go pretty low
It's unbelievable that we have so much cold air to work with, but it's essentially too cold in a sense to produce a storm. Then when the pattern does relax, the cold is just about gone. Smh. Then it's nothing but rain.
You know GFS yesterday morning was similar to this although placement was different...
Are we talking about a system along the EC or further west?
If it trends further west, would we not be at risk of getting too warm at least aloft, for any snow?
That would be nice. However, I think there are now too many different models, and their ensembles, that run multiple times a day. In a cold pattern, something will let us know there's potential.
a little piece of energy off of the NS down into the southeast. CMC also has it but it drops it over Virginia
Euro has the same idea which really slows down the flow keeping the colder air in place longer . That's how the euro kept the southeast cold long enough on the 00z run for that winter storm
Euro has the same idea which really slows down the flow keeping the colder air in place longer . That's how the euro kept the southeast cold long enough on the 00z run for that winter storm
12z gfs
00z Euro
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Interesting look
I’ll never in my life trust a model again, even 3 days out. I use to think If you were within 3/4 days you just had to worry about it shifting around some or getting a little weaker/stronger but no even 3 days out it’s bad.
Can the models be bad ? Yes, but they are just one tool used to make a forecast . I think In the southeast it's the unrealistic expectations that make it seem like the models are busting all the time when in reality it's people forgetting we live in the southeast . Let's be real winter weather is rare in the southeast and SOOOO many thing have to come together for systems to work out. I think people see systems on the models and just assume it's logical without really understanding how the model got to thst conclusion in the first . Many times you can look at 500mb and then the surface output and realize the two don't match up. But i think it all starts with the unrealistic expectations
Idk the bottom two have seperation from the NS at this point but the top is still very much stuck in the flow. I'm no met. Just sharing my observations. Definitely some potential especially this far out
to add to that I think people attach themselves to all the solutions the models show bringing snow while not giving just as much weight to those that don't. If I see 25/51 ensemble members on the Euro showing me getting measurable snow at HR 120 that is a huge signal for a storm, yet still statistically only 50% chance taken verbatim.
It happens everywhere. Cantore was in Minneapolis this morning and he said they were origianally forecast to get 8-12, lowered to 5-7, then 2-4, now will end up with less than an inch.
Sure it happens everywhere but again , winter weather isn't that common in the southeast so expectations are crazy unrealistic down here . Up there they are happy when systems bust . I lived in Michigan for 4 years . People love it when systems bust
