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Pattern Jarring January

Gonna need this thing to close off in a hurry
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Euro has some very light snow for Arkansas West Tenn and North Mississippi this run . No clue what H5 is doing as it dragging ads this run

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NCSNOW said:
Larry first off congrats on Savannah historic snow. Ive touted on this board and the other about this Historic Cold snap we are having. Raleigh potentially set to break all time consecuive day streak below freezing as well as about to record their 3rd consecutive month Below Normal temp wise. Boone making a run at consecutive day streak below 20 degrees. I love listening to seasonal LR forecast and like most form my own opinions for what they are worth as a hobbiest. I pretty much bought into the camp that winter would be front loaded , weak La nina driving the pattern and like 2010/2011 we would flip like we did back then early to mid Jan. Looks like we get back to normal next week, dont see a torch. Do see the cold swinging over to the other side of the globe for a bit. So my question to you is seeing that the weak La Nina is on life suport, what is gonna change permanetly to prevent this pattern from returning around late Jan into Feb? I was hook line and sinker that when we get to mid Jan, its over till next year. But one thing I dont see LR is the AO leaving neutral to BN territory. So if the polar vortex doesnt wrap itself up tight over the pole then the long wave pattern is very succeptible to rolling itself right back over in 10-15 days and it will be a case of here we go again. Cant beleive the SER has not only been beating back like a rented mule, but practically its been executed this winter. Interested to hear yours are anyone elses thoughts.
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1. Thank you!

2. My forecast was based on analogs for similar ENSO/QBO/Nov -AO, etc. La Niña is very much still there at the borderline weak/moderate level. So, I don't see it on life support. Also, climo says it usually weakens in Feb, regardless. So, the warmer late winters already take into account the weakening of Niña late winter.

3. Be careful with the GEFS based AO predictions as it has had a strong -AO bias on average to the tune of nearly -1 at day 14. GEFS mean right now has it near 0 at day 14. Adjusting for bias puts it at nearly +1, a solidly warm signal especially when combined with -
PNA/+NAO/MJO 4-5.

4. JB talking about a cold Feb for the E US as a whole is meaningless. When has he not done this? He has often ended up wrong. And even if it is cold up his way, it could still be warm in the SE.

Conclusion: warmth is the way to go post 1/15 averaged out. That doesn't mean there can't be a quick cold snap or two though I'm confident the US is now seeing what will easily end up as its coldest of the winter overall.
 
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Posted on Amx: Awesome Read and killer illustartions and Maps. Alot of yall will enjoy this: Heres a snippet about future, but has a great write up on the storm that just past.

His Link: http://www.stormhamster.com/e010518.htm



Long Range Weather Systems


More significant weather likely to make a return after our zonal foray.




0105-026.jpg


Our exiting winter storm will have a say in what sets up next after our Pacific Jet invades.




0105-027.jpg


We have been stuck on a remarkable repetitive upper level pattern and it would make sense to anticipate yet another round to occur.
 
NCSNOW said:
Posted on Amx: Awesome Read and killer illustartions and Maps. Alot of yall will enjoy this: Heres a snippet about future, but has a great write up on the storm that just past.

His Link: http://www.stormhamster.com/e010518.htm



Long Range Weather Systems


More significant weather likely to make a return after our zonal foray.




0105-026.jpg


Our exiting winter storm will have a say in what sets up next after our Pacific Jet invades.




0105-027.jpg


We have been stuck on a remarkable repetitive upper level pattern and it would make sense to anticipate yet another round to occur.
Click to expand...

I'd be shocked if we have anything close to the severity and longevity of the current US cold. This is historic and it has been fun tracking and experiencing it but historic is normally not repeated in the same winter.
 
Interesting comments in Rah NWS, never thought about this compared to excessive heat warnings


In addition... all zones will have the Wind Chill Advisory for wind chills of 5 below to 5 above tonight. If we had a Excessive Cold Warning (like we do for heat) we would need one due to the historical number of hours/days and nearing a week of sub- freezing temperatures for many areas. However, we have no such product. Therefore, we will issue what we can in order to get the information out concerning just how dangerous and extreme this record cold event is.

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I think that the warmth will last in the deep South pretty much through the month of Feb with the possible exception of NC and Tenn or (in other words the upper South) and they will just be close to normal, not below. Always possible the timing is just right in Feb/March, and sometimes La Nina's can finish colder, but it is looking grim for those ( and my area is one) who will remain below normal for the winter in snowfall.
 
NCSNOW said:
Posted on Amx: Awesome Read and killer illustartions and Maps. Alot of yall will enjoy this: Heres a snippet about future, but has a great write up on the storm that just past.

His Link: http://www.stormhamster.com/e010518.htm



Long Range Weather Systems


More significant weather likely to make a return after our zonal foray.




0105-026.jpg


Our exiting winter storm will have a say in what sets up next after our Pacific Jet invades.




0105-027.jpg


We have been stuck on a remarkable repetitive upper level pattern and it would make sense to anticipate yet another round to occur.
Click to expand...
Guess the old theory that patterns tend to repeat. Maybe we can get the eastern trough back by late Jan, just not as brutal, and we won't have to deal with as much suppression!
 
GaWx said:
I'd be shocked if we have anything close to the severity and longevity of the current US cold. This is historic and it has been fun tracking and experiencing it but historic is normally not repeated in the same winter.
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Hes referncing pattern recognition that yield opportunity for winter storms. We can have another bout of sustained cold (longevity)yes and defined as BN, Historic like this one, I agree very doubtful. Im in the camp that after we have this upcoming pacific air induced thaw, we end up in Feb with another 10 to 14 day Bn window of opportunity. well see how it shakes out.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Guess the old theory that patterns tend to repeat. Maybe we can get the eastern trough back by late Jan, just not as brutal, and we won't have to deal with as much suppression!
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"Winter will remember December" I want name the source of that often repeated quote.

Think EPO comes back and drives the buggy(pattern) February for a couple laps atleast.
 
1300m said:
What NWS RAH has done in abandoning their snowfall maps is truly a shame. I don't know this because I haven't talked to any of them, but I somewhat get the feeling it is out of protest for them being so short-staffed, but whatever the reason it is truly a shame they release those crappy maps they put out now compared to the consistent high-quality ones they had always put out until last year.

P.S. And yes, this is a much higher-quality map. It's legible and contoured much better.

Edit: Although on second glance, I do have a few issues with some of the amounts being way outside the contours, but overall it does look much more presentable.
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Yeah it really is a shame, and I think that may be part of the reason, granted they have started to pick up more staff near the turn of the new year so things shouldn't be quite as hectic as before. Luckily, I'm picking up the slack and expanding their archive by several orders of magnitude so we shouldn't have any problem! Storms like these in Jan 1968 for example are a pain in the butt to reanalyze and took several days of painstaking work and comparison w/ the new high resolution ERA-20C dataset, and time I don't think they have but it's worth it in the long run...
January 9-11 1968 NC Snowmap.png
January 6-7 1968 NC Snowmap.png
 
Almost lost the below freezing steak in my backyard today with a balmy 31.8

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The Michael Ventrice tweet offered a lot of hope for snow weenies! Said the thaw would be short lived! Using anallogs, he showed a map for next 3-6 weeks, there was a huge trough over East again!! Using MJO analogs! Paging Larry!
 
Think from the way it sounded, some think the pattern we're about to wrap up is going to repeat itself after a warmer period, but likely to a lesser extent.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Pretty sure you wouldn't get apps runners with that look!
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MV QUOTE,TWEET
Using the current state of the Madden Julian Oscillation, here is a forecast of the next 3-6 weeks via historical analogs of when the MJO had a similar location and amplitude. This would be something if correct. It suggests that our mid-January thaw may only be temporary.

 
1300m said:
Not easily. That's a beautiful split flow pattern with a strong -EPO/-west Based NAO/+PNA look with a signal of an active southern stream. Would be hard not to get wintry weather in the south if that verified.
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Absolutely 1300, that pattern screams winter storms at least in the Carolinas and Northern Ala, N Ga/Ala( sorry Tenn and Va folks, you too) ;)
 
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