Pattern Jarring January

[Arcc]

Despite being a scrooge, I do agree with what SD said in the earlier pages here on a storm when the pattern breaks down. Unless it just slowly breaks down there will be a lot of residual cold air and more importantly very low dew points around. Probably gonna be a decent ice threat before it goes

 

[Storm5]

Erie PA today

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[accu35]

Gfs OP for the win

 

[RollTide18]

Gfs OP for the win

After seeing the GEFS mean decrease, I've decided to punt this.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

Fwiw here is 12Z FV3 compared to OP 12Z GFS from earlier today. The slp crossing over Florida looks similar to the new 18Z GFS in regards to that which has the snow line further South similar to 18Z run.

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[$alt]

After watching the last FV3 solutions vs GFS with our dead Thrusday/Friday deal, I am confident in saying the FV3 is horrible, like the GFS.

 

[Brent]

After watching the last FV3 solutions vs GFS with our dead Thrusday/Friday deal, I am confident in saying the FV3 is horrible, like the GFS.

from one terrible model to another

 

[StoneMtnWx]

After watching the last FV3 solutions vs GFS with our dead Thrusday/Friday deal, I am confident in saying the FV3 is horrible, like the GFS.

Yea I agree...FV3 trended dry with that syetem this last run so definitely take fwiw

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[BPATL]

from one terrible model to another

We need R2D2
from Star Wars..

 

[GaWx]

Fwiw here is 12Z FV3 compared to OP 12Z GFS from earlier today. The slp crossing over Florida looks similar to the new 18Z GFS in regards to that which has the snow line further South similar to 18Z run.

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I'll take that low about 100 miles south of that 12Z FV3 position and preferably 200 miles to also give Phil a shot.

 

[Webberweather53]

After watching the last FV3 solutions vs GFS with our dead Thrusday/Friday deal, I am confident in saying the FV3 is horrible, like the GFS.

It's not very good but it's a very modest shift in the right direction (like in this case on it's showing a slightly more suppressed storm than the GFS, which is probably the right idea...)

 

[BPATL]

Erie PA today

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What a difference from last year, but honestly that looks like hell.. As much as all of us "Southern" weenies are, we could not take that for more than 10 days, that is the beauty of living in the SE.. Even when the great snow of 3 week's ago in certain area of GA, AL it got somewhat depressing after 8 days on the ground,(shady areas)..Think how long 50- to 70 inches of snow takes to go away,not even January yet, yes some La Nina so far..,,ERIE,,lol..

 

[Webberweather53]

After watching the last FV3 solutions vs GFS with our dead Thrusday/Friday deal, I am confident in saying the FV3 is horrible, like the GFS.

This isn't a new model in the sense that everything is different vs the GFS, they only changed the dynamic core which is equivalent to removing your computer's CPU and replacing it w/ a newer & faster one. You still have the same computer just runs slightly better. That's not to say this model won't be better because it probably is but this is still bad unfortunately, just less so

 

[Webberweather53]

Minnesota looks warm... Not. I've been to Roseau in mid-January and experienced low temperatures around -40F, it's a whole other level of cold I probably don't wanna experience again

 

[setxwx]

Minnesota looks warm... Not. I've been to Roseau in mid-January and experienced low temperatures around -40F, it's a whole other level of cold I probably don't wanna experience again
View attachment 2360

lowest I've personally experienced in my lifetime is -5, here in Chattanooga... official low was 2. Think it was 1996. But my house is out in the burbs. It was amazing. I missed the Noog's -10 in 1985, was living in Texas at the time.

 

[ForsythSnow]

After watching the last FV3 solutions vs GFS with our dead Thrusday/Friday deal, I am confident in saying the FV3 is horrible, like the GFS.

Fail Version 3. That's what I'm calling the FV3 from now on.

 

[Webberweather53]

lowest I've personally experienced in my lifetime is -5, here in Chattanooga... official low was 2. Think it was 1996. But my house is out in the burbs. It was amazing. I missed the Noog's -10 in 1985, was living in Texas at the time.

Once you reach well below -20-25F you start having trouble breathing because the air is so cold. It's not a fun time

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol DT just got wrecked on twitter posting long range GFS cold porn after he called JB an idiot for doing it. Granted I think he was trying to make a point how the GFS was far out in left field but I still think it's funny....

 

[setxwx]

heh, I really like that term, 'cold porn'.

 

[NWMSGuy]

So has there ever been a time in winters past that the GFS advertised a winter storm with no other model support only to wind up verifying?