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Pattern Jarring January

So, looks like the 28th and 29th storm is a dud. Looks like the New Years storm is a dud. Guess we are looking to the Jan 5 storm now. Maybe the GFS is finally right about that one. Either that or it's three strikes. I just can't stand the models showing good storms 7 to 10 days out and then they go poor. You'd think technology would be better than that by now.
 
I don't know. Did the Euro ever even show a storm? I know the CMC showed a storm a few times but I don't know on the Euro because I don't follow it as much due to it coming late.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't know. Did the Euro ever even show a storm? I know the CMC showed a storm a few times but I don't know on the Euro because I don't follow it as much due to it coming late.
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The euro had multiple runs with precip up to the i20 corridor but never had a full blow storm


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Brick Tamland said:
So, looks like the 28th and 29th storm is a dud. Looks like the New Years storm is a dud. Guess we are looking to the Jan 5 storm now. Maybe the GFS is finally right about that one. Either that or it's three strikes. I just can't stand the models showing good storms 7 to 10 days out and then they go poor. You'd think technology would be better than that by now.
Click to expand...

The New Years one is on the 18z gfs.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't know. Did the Euro ever even show a storm? I know the CMC showed a storm a few times but I don't know on the Euro because I don't follow it as much due to it coming late.
Click to expand...
yep, this:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png
 
I'd like to follow it more (FWIW, even if OT) but the late run is too late for me and I don't have good access.
 
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
Nam/gfs has similarities with this time frame. Nam will probably side with gfs.
 
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but someone with more intelligence enlighten me.........is the 12z 3k NAM at 060 hinting at what the gfs is smoking? I know its beyond it range currently, but the wind barbs are indicating a low forming in the same area the gfs has is plotted. Someone tell me if there is anything to it or not??? My knowledge is slim, I rely heavily on most of you for info. but trying to learn since I hang around.
 
Hpdb301 said:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but someone with more intelligence enlighten me.........is the 12z 3k NAM at 060 hinting at what the gfs is smoking? I know its beyond it range currently, but the wind barbs are indicating a low forming in the same area the gfs has is plotted. Someone tell me if there is anything to it or not??? My knowledge is slim, I rely heavily on most of you for info. but trying to learn since I hang around.
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Im not that knowledgeable as others but that why i posted the imagine above, to agree with your post. Great post welcome to the family.
 
WxSouth still talking like there's a chance for the New Years system and the one later next week on Facebook.
 
Nothing shabby about the wave in the PNW at 84 on the 00z NAM other than the fact it’s the 84 hour NAM
7e939c562465fe9cf5a80f37df0f7035.jpg



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For you cold weather naysayers, the Euro 5 days ago was wrong about the strength of the high currently controlling our weather.. GFs too strong, Euro slightly too weak. Book it. Play dice.
 
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