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Pattern Jarring January

If we don't score on the 1st, GFS gives us another storm on the 5th! I love you GFS!
 
lmao the GFS is going for another cold snap in coin flip land. That's sure to show 70+ degree weather on the 00z.
 
Does anyone anyone know how to load video. Was going to load video of the 18z gfs our weather guy used just now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given what's transpired of late we may need to be more concerned w/ it getting suppressed into oblivion instead of cutting into the Lakes
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On looking back on this run I can see what you are saying. Obviously I’d rather deal w/suppression vs the cutter but we’ll see.


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Clem282340 said:
What's making the storm shift south
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The GFS consistently tries to dump a trough into the Rockies and western US and push the persistent trough over SE Canada out of the way into the North Atlantic too quickly, this causes the once moist west-southwest/southwesterly flow to veer out of the west-northwest and become predominantly dry as the trough further west fizzles and trough deepens over New England and SE Canada.
 
Shawn said:
Why is that local met above showing the average viewer a GFS run, known damn well, it is on it's own so soon?
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Who knows. Lol. For the ratings probably. He isn’t the chief meteorologist. He seems to be always on vacation. Lol
 
GaWx said:
I'm not buying any model, .much less Goofy, 6 days out for my rarely hit area near the coast. However, even the EPS has suggested a threat to the coast on 1/1 in past runs. With the possibility once again of an unusually strong and expansive high even noting GFS bias, the chances for something quite unusual (dare I say maybe even boardwide (yes, possibly even including the extremely rare Phil hit) would be much higher than normal if a huge high anywhere close to that could somehow verify.

Regardless, the 18Z Goofy surface low track fwiw is not too far off the perfect track based on old wx maps to give the rare wintry precip all of the way to the GA/SC coasts. What we need for a better chance and even colder air in here earlier is for it to dip further down into the Gulf before taking that track across central or south FL (far S FL for Phil would be nice).
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I'm not buying any either. No model is seeming consistent with one another, the GFS being a stubborn rock of major storms and record cold, the Euro being dry, the CMC being the weird fence in between.

I don't care about the Swiss model as it has so localized of an area I feel it is just like looking at the corner of the NAM for the tropics. Blows everything up because it can't see anything.

The German model? Maybe it did well once or twice but I would like to see it across an entire year and not just in winter. See how it stands up to severe weather and hurricanes if it can before passing any more judgement.

The UKMET isn't in range 90% of the time unless a storm actually gets close to happening.

The other short range models aren't close so what even is the point except 48 hours out?

Anyone riding the JMA and the other trains that have no wheels are just desperate.

Something got into the models that is making each one respond differently, and I'm not sure what it is. Maybe its that unlikely high pressure and extreme cold that is messing up the solutions. Hopefully the model madness comes to a consensus about something.
 
Decrease continues on the 18z gefs
8155bb2c739564e50dc18fdf2d81f8d9.jpg



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GaWx said:
I'm not buying any model, .much less Goofy, 6 days out for my rarely hit area near the coast. However, even the EPS has suggested a threat to the coast on 1/1 in past runs. With the possibility once again of an unusually strong and expansive high even noting GFS bias, the chances for something quite unusual (dare I say maybe even boardwide (yes, possibly even including the extremely rare Phil hit) would be much higher than normal if a huge high anywhere close to that could somehow verify.

Regardless, the 18Z Goofy surface low track fwiw is not too far off the perfect track based on old wx maps to give the rare wintry precip all of the way to the GA/SC coasts. What we need for a better chance and even colder air in here earlier is for it to dip further down into the Gulf before taking that track across central or south FL (far S FL for Phil would be nice).
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Larry,
Thanks!
Not nearly as sophisticated as your muse, but essentially I touched on somewhat the same point about models past 72 hours in Banter a little while ago.
Let's see where we go, but the current road map we're all looking at is like a really old one found in the glove compartment -- coffee stained and pretty much illegible ...
Best!
Phil
 
Storm5 said:
Decrease continues on the 18z gefs
8155bb2c739564e50dc18fdf2d81f8d9.jpg



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Click to expand...
Well when the models were showning the suppression start on op runs, the ensembles didn't show this until a few cycles later. The ensembles are no greater than their op models, IMO
 
Eh I don't think the goofus has backed off yet on the cold but it's coming once it loses New Years Day for good. Then it'll show cold but more reasonable...
 
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