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Pattern Jarring January
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
There is an 18z CMC of sorts. It's good for say, 120 hours supposedly and it's a simulated ptype/radar fiasco.
Anyway, I havent even figured out if the 18z only runs to 48 hours or what.. but you can find it at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
Anyway, I havent even figured out if the 18z only runs to 48 hours or what.. but you can find it at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
No there is a 18z rgem.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Someone said the 18z Canadian reverts back to 12z after the short term.
whatalife
Moderator
Looks like GFS is going to have the Euro storm day 9-10?
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Yes it does. But I think the euro was warmer. We need to score soon. Cause after next week the pattern is going to flip probably.
Storm5
Member
No poo train yet!!! We all know the gfs at 00z tonight 12z tomorrow will have nothing . Let us enjoy this fantasy for a few more hours
Storm5
Member
Your gonna be waiting a while
Nope I be starting it up after 0Z after another gfs crushing. The gfs is the new king!!! Hahahaha:weenie::weenie:
Clem282340
Member
So pretty much this storm on New Year's Eve is toast since the GFS is the on model showing it
Yea. It needs support from the other models. But I see before where the other model has trended towards the gfs.
I'd be scared with that look this far in advance. That looks like a cutting bomb on the GFS.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The GFS looks weird with that storm, if it were much more refined I'd think it'd be MUCH warmer and a lot further north.
I'm not buying any model, .much less Goofy, 6 days out for my rarely hit area near the coast. However, even the EPS has suggested a threat to the coast on 1/1 in past runs. With the possibility once again of an unusually strong and expansive high even noting GFS bias, the chances for something quite unusual (dare I say maybe even boardwide (yes, possibly even including the extremely rare Phil hit) would be much higher than normal if a huge high anywhere close to that could somehow verify.
Regardless, the 18Z Goofy surface low track fwiw is not too far off the perfect track based on old wx maps to give the rare wintry precip all of the way to the GA/SC coasts. What we need for a better chance and even colder air in here earlier is for it to dip further down into the Gulf before taking that track across central or south FL (far S FL for Phil would be nice).
Regardless, the 18Z Goofy surface low track fwiw is not too far off the perfect track based on old wx maps to give the rare wintry precip all of the way to the GA/SC coasts. What we need for a better chance and even colder air in here earlier is for it to dip further down into the Gulf before taking that track across central or south FL (far S FL for Phil would be nice).
whatalife
Moderator
Yep. I agree but I was just saying both the GFS and Euro for now have it...
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Given what's transpired of late we may need to be more concerned w/ it getting suppressed into oblivion instead of cutting into the Lakes
One thing the gfs does have on its side with the New Year’s Day storm. It is in the good range of the gfs when it does the best. Within 5 days (108hrs). So tomorrow we will start getting within nam long range.