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Pattern Jarring January

ForsythSnow said:
Euro's all aboard. I'm tempted to start a thread but I think I'll kill the system lol.
ecmwf_ptype_se_120.png

ecmwf_t2m_se_120.png
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Ouch! This is a lot different than all these wankster storms we've been chasing, and now we have all the big 3 models showing it! Hell, fire up the thread!! It's only 4-5 days out and we need something else to do now that most got skunked this go round!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Euro's all aboard. I'm tempted to start a thread but I think I'll kill the system lol.
ecmwf_ptype_se_120.png

ecmwf_t2m_se_120.png
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Got CMC temp map? It's great in Cad setups with temps anyway
 
Yeah at end of day nothing ever to complain about having 3 threads in one week started then you know your having a good winter of following weather
 
Tarheel1 said:
Ouch! This is a lot different than all these wankster storms we've been chasing, and now we have all the big 3 models showing it! Hell, fire up the thread!! It's only 4-5 days out and we need something else to do now that most got skunked this go round!
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Overdone in snow areas, but you get the idea.
gem_T2m_seus_21.png
 
Looks west and east of here. Guess that's how it's going to be this winter. All the action is to the east, west, north, or south.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks west and east of here. Guess that's how it's going to be this winter. All the action is to the east, west, north, or south.
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Usually seems to be how CAD events are unless it comes in earlier. I'm going to watch this system, and if we see the same tomorrow I'll start a thread. Not today since we are still dealing with this storm.
 
Outside of a couple of potential CAD events, there isn't a real threat to anyone on the board for quite the foreseeable future. As front loaded as this winter has been, it's going to really suck to see it go out in lackluster fashion.
 
Yeah. Not really feeling much more for winter wx this season outside of of a few more cold days.


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NorthGaWinter4 said:
Storms really haven’t cut much this winter. Gfs is the only one that really cuts. I like this potential
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Yeah, I don't see this cutting, and even if it did, we sill havte a wedge in place. Whichever way, if there is ample moisture and it comes in during the early hours when it's below freezing, we are looking at some ice. Probably enough for trouble like a few years ago. The CMC looks really bad with 1.5" QPF here, which means this nasty map.
zr_acc.us_se.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, I don't see this cutting, and even if it did, we sill havte a wedge in place. Whichever way, if there is ample moisture and it comes in during the early hours when it's below freezing, we are looking at some ice. Probably enough for trouble like a few years ago. The CMC looks really bad with 1.5" QPF here, which means this nasty map.
zr_acc.us_se.png
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Please - wasn't this supposed to happen today? Now again ? ... :eek:
 
Not impressed so far for potential zr/sleet into the CAE area. Looks like we will be too warm. 120 hours out, though.
 
Shawn said:
Not impressed so far for potential zr/sleet into the CAE area. Looks like we will be too warm. 120 hours out, though.
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At this time, looks like a true CAD event, for favored areas. Worth watching for sure
 
Just don't think the temps will be cold enough even if we do get some wedging, and that is ok with me as I enjoy my power and hate zr
 
DadOfJax said:
Outside of a couple of potential CAD events, there isn't a real threat to anyone on the board for quite the foreseeable future. As front loaded as this winter has been, it's going to really suck to see it go out in lackluster fashion.
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There are people on the board in the CAD region, so we monitor these CAD events!
Plus, JB say huge January thaw coming, but winter comes back worse than now, in February
 
Looking over the EPS and GEFS, not even a big deal for the majority of NC. With little to no ensemble support, tossing the 120 hour threat.

EDIT: Nevermind, see later posts-
 
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MichaelJ said:
Just don't think the temps will be cold enough even if we do get some wedging, and that is ok with me as I enjoy my power and hate zr
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The models all say temps will be plenty cold, and they often underestimate the strength of cold in CAD events
 
Brent said:
what a warmup nationwide on the 240 hour Euro

even Chicago goes over to ice lol
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And guess what! We got our Cali bowling ball wave just in time to maybe get a ptype of rain and thunder per Euro! ;)
 
ForsythSnow said:
So no ensemble supports ice for CAD regions? If that's true I'm glad I didn't start a thread. If not, it's going up tomorrow model dependent.
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You'd have to look more into it for your areas, but I didn't see much of an "obvious sign" outside the mountains. From what I gather, its more of a start as potential ZR for some areas at best and over to rain.
 
From lookout

“yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement.

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15 over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga”
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
From lookout

“yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement.

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15 over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga”
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He's pretty good with this stuff. So can't throw that idea out, of course.
 
This does look interesting from the 12z GFS right as precipitation is starting up:

GFSMA_sfc_dewp_120.png
 
Using another data source, I see that there is also ensemble support from the 12z GEFS. Whoops. Disregard my previous posts about no support/tossing it.

Canadian is even scarier.


GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_120.png
 
Shawn said:
Using another data source, I see that there is also ensemble support from the 12z GEFS. Whoops. Disregard my previous posts about no support/tossing it.

Canadian is even scarier.


GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_120.png
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Yikes. Say I'm too early, but I'm going to go ahead and start a thread. Maybe it'll kill the ice.
 
FFC already fretting about it in the AFD:

By Sunday night, a wedge has formed
across NE portions of the forecast area. The wedge may end up
creating a wintry precip situation Sunday night into early Monday.
The cold temps at the surface within the wedge combined with the
warmer temps aloft will create the potential for freezing rain.
However, this is still 5 days out and the wintry precip potential
will be highly dependent upon the strength/position of the wedge.
The forecast will likely change.
 
Could this stretch all the way to Macon as I'm in Jones County just to the North of there? Could we also see snow or sleet instead of Ice
 
Ron Burgundy said:
FFC already fretting about it in the AFD:

By Sunday night, a wedge has formed
across NE portions of the forecast area. The wedge may end up
creating a wintry precip situation Sunday night into early Monday.
The cold temps at the surface within the wedge combined with the
warmer temps aloft will create the potential for freezing rain.
However, this is still 5 days out and the wintry precip potential
will be highly dependent upon the strength/position of the wedge.
The forecast will likely change.
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Well as much as I am a fan of winter weather.. I would NOT want this on anyone... From my quick look at precip amounts..looks like in the 1-1.25 inch range and with the primary by far being ZR it would be a cripplining Ice Storm .. and for it to be on CFP day with Bama vs GA in ATL... make me wonder who at Ohio State is hacking the models...LOL
 
18z gfs says hold off on that thread and then start looking 10 days out again. This has been a very frustrating pattern. 2 solid week of very cold weather and zip for moisture. Verga almost made it here today... I was having fu
n looking at Hilton head webcams though.:weenie:
 
There are two systems to be watching for imo. The one this Sunday/Monday and then possibly next Thursday/Fridayish. But we’ll see...


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