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Pattern Jarring January

Nomanslandva said:
18z gfs says hold off on that thread and then start looking 10 days out again. This has been a very frustrating pattern. 2 solid week of very cold weather and zip for moisture. Verga almost made it here today... I was having fu
n looking at Hilton head webcams though.:weenie:
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The gfs didn’t look right. It kicked the GFS way to fast and the cold was there the entire storm. Around 34°
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
The gfs didn’t look right. It kicked the GFS way to fast and the cold was there the entire storm. Around 34°
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Well FFC is "nibbling" a bit more at the Sun/Mon potential
.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
The main change to the extended forecast was Sunday night into early
Monday. The potential for wintry precip has increased.
 
whatalife said:
There are two systems to be watching for imo. The one this Sunday/Monday and then possibly next Thursday/Fridayish. But we’ll see...


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My highs are 55 both Tuesday and Wednesday, so I need to reel in the Sun/Mon event
 
Brick Tamland said:
Great, another system that gives more winter weather to the south of here.
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I look at it differently. I saw a tiny bit of snow already (barely 1"). Even if I saw 0" snow, the folks in FL and south GA and coastal SC who rarely ever see it, are experiencing this today. It brought them a lot of happiness, joy and wonder. It was worth it for me to miss out in order for those with less to have a bit of the action.
 
tractor girl said:
I look at it differently. I saw a tiny bit of snow already (barely 1"). Even if I saw 0" snow, the folks in FL and south GA and coastal SC who rarely ever see it, are experiencing this today. It brought them a lot of happiness, joy and wonder. It was worth it for me to miss out in order for those with less to have a bit of the action.
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Wow, you are more charitable on snow than most of us. It sure wasn't worth it to those of us that watched the storm a few weeks ago just miss us to the south and now this. This didn't make me feel one bit good,lol:D
 
I know there is practically no model support, but think if that 500mb storm closes off monday there could be the biggest surprise from a cold core. It's been a while so we're dew one? The Nam seems to be hinting at the 850s crashing with it.
 
To be honest, i wouldn't mind if the pattern relaxed for a little bit. Give us little warm weather and then reload end of month into Fab Feb.
 
accu35 said:
To be honest, i wouldn't mind if the pattern relaxed for a little bit. Give us little warm weather and then reload end of month into Fab Feb.
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If long range ensembles are correct, enjoy the "normal" next week because then we reload. Both EPS and GEFS continue to strengthen the -EPO with spikes of +PNA thrown in there. They also go bonkers with the Aluetian low in the mid to long range, especially the EPS. This is not a warm look.

500h_anom.na.png
 
Arcc said:
If long range ensembles are correct, enjoy the "normal" next week because then we reload. Both EPS and GEFS continue to strengthen the -EPO with spikes of +PNA thrown in there. They also go bonkers with the Aluetian low in the mid to long range, especially the EPS. This is not a warm look.

500h_anom.na.png
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It also screams suppression like we just dealt with. Not good.
 
DadOfJax said:
It also screams suppression like we just dealt with. Not good.
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Need cold to get wintry precip! Take my chances with precip. Even having 3 storms miss South or vanish completely, hope springs eternal! This winter has been a win so far with just the extreme cold! I've had 2 lows in the single digits already, havnt had that in 5-6 winters! Anything else is gravy!
 
DadOfJax said:
It also screams suppression like we just dealt with. Not good.
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Yesterday you said the storm at 240 on the Euro would head to the Ohio Valley and no more cold air in the future after this week. Now you are talking suppression after next week. Do you have any constructive analysis to bring to the table or do you just complain that we will not get snow no matter what the maps show?
 
Batman said:
Yesterday you said the storm at 240 on the Euro would head to the Ohio Valley and no more cold air in the future after this week. Now you are talking suppression after next week. Do you have any constructive analysis to bring to the table or do you just complain that we will not get snow no matter what the maps show?
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I said the image posted screamed suppression. My opinion is that we go back to near normal temps with Ohio Valley storms. Im sorry you cant distinguish an between an actual opinion on what may or may not happen with what a particular image indicates.
 
Arcc said:
That doesn't scream suppression at all.
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IMO, with that strong of a northern stream, if that look were to verify, we would be facing the same large scale synoptic pattern we are in at this time. JMO though, and as I have stated before, that doesn't make a hill of beans around here. Much smarter minds here than me.
 
DadOfJax said:
IMO, with that strong of a northern stream, if that look were to verify, we would be facing the same large scale synoptic pattern we are in at this time. JMO though, and as I have stated before, that doesn't make a hill of beans around here. Much smarter minds here than me.
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Dry cold. Can take hike. Enough
 
DadOfJax said:
I said the image posted screamed suppression. My opinion is that we go back to near normal temps with Ohio Valley storms. Im sorry you cant distinguish an between an actual opinion on what may or may not happen with what a particular image indicates.
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The image you are referring to does not scream suppression. Yes it is a trough in the east and a ridge in the west, but not nearly as strong or as deep to suppress the pattern anything like we have now. What stood out more to me was that less than 24 hours after you argued that a storm would head to the Ohio Valley, you are saying the pattern will be suppressed for the same period.
 
DadOfJax said:
It also screams suppression like we just dealt with. Not good.
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There's a reason it looks that way. If you analyze models in the long range, you will realize that they often appear more suppressed than when it gets closer. Models get the general idea in the long range, not the actual result. It's the +PNA and -EPO that we need to pay attention to more than red and blue. In addition, this is just one model run and things do change from run to run, data set to data set.
 
When this winter is over and someone sits down to make the color snowfall departure from average map, it's going to be epic. People will be looking at that map for the next 100 years wondering how at the end of one of the hottest years on record we were able to have one of the greatest southeast winters in the history of this land

Ps. I've only had about 1/4 inch so far this winter but I know mine is coming in February
 
Batman said:
The image you are referring to does not scream suppression. Yes it is a trough in the east and a ridge in the west, but not nearly as strong or as deep to suppress the pattern anything like we have now. What stood out more to me was that less than 24 hours after you argued that a storm would head to the Ohio Valley, you are saying the pattern will be suppressed for the same period.
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Absolutely incorrect statement, but since a post defending what I said was deleted, I will leave it at this.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When this winter is over and someone sits down to make the color snowfall departure from average map, it's going to be epic. People will be looking at that map for the next 100 years wondering how at the end of one of the hottest years on record we were able to have one of the greatest southeast winters in the history of this land

Ps. I've only had about 1/4 inch so far this winter but I know mine is coming in February
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Great post. Very True. Sometimes we get caught up in what we want IMBY and don't look to see what is going on around us. What has been going on around us in the SE this winter has been exceptional. What is also encouraging is that I don't see opportunities going away after this week. While the extreme cold will relax, it looks like we will get more moisture opportunities with an overall BN temp pattern.
 
Don’t think the snow pack is deep enough to keep us below freezing today


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Arctic air spilling in again at the end of CMC 00z run.
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Awesome. I'll take as much of this cold and dry as mother nature will give. Cause I know what June,July and August wi'll be like.

Interested to see if the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds can freeze over after the chop and wind die off this week.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
Same part as me, lol the part that has been cold and dry.
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yeah tell me about it lol

I'm going to Chicago next week and the last 3 or 4 Euro runs have had A) below zero highs B) a foot of snow and now last night C) 50 degrees and rain with not a bit of snow...:rolleyes:
 
DadOfJax said:
IMO, with that strong of a northern stream, if that look were to verify, we would be facing the same large scale synoptic pattern we are in at this time. JMO though, and as I have stated before, that doesn't make a hill of beans around here. Much smarter minds here than me.
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That isn't a overly powerful northern stream nor is there a large grinder sitting over the NE. I don't have the historical knowledge to to prove this, but from tracking storms the past 15 years watching the models I've learned to use the 558dm line as my benchmark for AL snow. That line is across north TN. Personally I'd like to see the trough deeper, but that is a great look for a ensemble mean.
 
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Brent said:
yeah tell me about it lol

I'm going to Chicago next week and the last 3 or 4 Euro runs have had A) below zero highs B) a foot of snow and now last night C) 50 degrees and rain with not a bit of snow...:rolleyes:
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I know this makes no sense but last 2 winters I have drove my kids north (within 100 miles) to play in the snow, and it’s just not the same, they don’t really get into it like if it’s in your back yard. Even I was like oh cool but just doesn’t have the same feel as if it were in your own back yard... weird I know, you would think snow is snow.
 
12z GFS is close to a threat around 192-204hrs. It also has some ensemble support for that wave. The 558dm benchmark looks great. Give some separation by slowing the southern wave and that may be a good one.

After that energy flying everywhere.
 
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