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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

I have some questions, what is going to stop the system from coming any further west? Is it because the trough is too deep? Even if there is a phase sooner, wouldn't that push everything back to the west? Also, what does the 500 numbers mean on the 500mb height anomaly chart? The numbers represent air pressures right?
 
deltadog03 said:
to me the scary part is, given the 500mb look, I still think the low could come from the gom and over to just off shore. The RH continue to look better and better.
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IF we get a low in the Gulf, that would be crazy. I might be crazy enough to agree with what you said earlier. However, if I see a low pop up in coming runs, then maybe game on for more people, and who knows? Maybe we can get some snow from N GA to N GA and then, just maybe, JHS can get his snow and everyone else in the Carolinas as well. Maybe I'm just wishcasting...
 
If it weren't for what my dad has told me with Jan 2000 (which again, I don't think is really recorded), I'd be 100% no, but as of now I'm 75% no. I certainly don't expect another Carolina Crusher like scenario, but there have been times in which Carolina (at least South Carolina) weather can apply to me.

I do think the most likely best case is the Georgia coast in this state but who knows?
 
Big upswing from RH at 850mb as well from southern Alabama, central and south (especially South and SE GA) and the coastal areas for SC And NC. *inland just SE of CAE* it increased a bit as well. *CAE and MCN in same boat attm* def. increases from CHS to RDU *again 850mb looking better. H7 looks fantastic in the above areas, and H7 outside of the areas look good too.
 
Storm5 said:
Lots of false hope for areas in Alabama and Georgia being spread around

Like what? Like snow in Birmingham or Atlanta? I know it's far fetched and wishcasting but the trends suggest it's possible unless u have a very good explanation as to how it's absolutely not possible?
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Let's get a Jan 2000 repeat here in CAE and the rest of the eastern Carolina's! Those ratios would be ridiculous. With snow falling at such a colder temp and the ground and road temps being knocked down these next couple nights, an hour of light snow would give everything a coating i would bet. Hoping for more obviously.
 
deltadog03 said:
I hope its not me?? To be clear there is No precipitation in AL at all...barely a blip or 2 in MS but there is some better coverage over S GA and def. SE GA
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Gotcha, and to be clear to others I'm *not* expecting this to get back to the run which had 1-2 inches here, not at all, 99.5% chance it's dry here, but this is fun to track for sure.
 
deltadog03 said:
I hope its not me?? To be clear there is No precipitation in AL at all...barely a blip or 2 in MS but there is some better coverage over S GA and def. SE GA
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If trends continue, i can see a light event in south Al.
 
1300m said:
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You're right, this is still 72hrs out and the euro has ticked closer on I believe the last what 6 runs in a row now? If this trend continues for another 24 to 48 hours, this is going to be a massive hit.

Edit: And I mean just 72hrs out from the phase.
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I fully agree 100%. I will say though, it bothers me that there is soooooo much competition in the Western Atlantic *with regards to energy* and that can really train wreck this. We DEF need a fuller phase over AR, and the euro is getting there. *or trying too anyway*. Notice how the chaser wave is def stronger and quicker this run..its amazing because you see our wave get stronger as soon as they start to phase.
 
deltadog03 said:
I am trying to remember if we got anything here from that system, I think we did, but I honestly don't remember.
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Atlanta got significant precipitation from that storm, and that was way under predicted based on what I read. It was snow sleet and lots of freezing rain in North ga. Maybe the same happens in this case where moisture is underdone far north and not so much of a false hope. @Storm5
 
deltadog03 said:
Big upswing from RH at 850mb as well from southern Alabama, central and south (especially South and SE GA) and the coastal areas for SC And NC. *inland just SE of CAE* it increased a bit as well. *CAE and MCN in same boat attm* def. increases from CHS to RDU *again 850mb looking better. H7 looks fantastic in the above areas, and H7 outside of the areas look good too.
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**IF that does indeed happen, probably have to look at a readjustment in the Miami low closer off Central FL coast which of course, follows more closely with the GS ... plus historically that's prime SFC low positions for significant Eastern Carolinas and SE GA snowfalls.
 
Storm5 said:
Lots of false hope for areas in Alabama and Georgia being spread around


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I believe there a good chance that this system could trend much father west.The trend has been that the pieces of energy phasing sooner and futher west. I say most Alabama and most of Georgia still have a shot for snow with the mid week system.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Atlanta got significant precipitation from that storm, and that was way under predicted based on what I read. It was snow sleet and lots of freezing rain in North ga. Maybe the same happens in this case where moisture is underdone far north and not so much of a false hope. @Storm5
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Actually I think there was an ice storm in 2000 before the Carolina Crusher that affected the rest of the state.
 

Jesus , look at H5 this thing would need to be negative way further west then what’s being show to get snow in the places you mentioned . It’s very simple. As has been said 1000 times this is an eastern Carolina system MAYBE SE Georgia


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Storm5 said:
Lots of false hope for areas in Alabama and Georgia , NC,being spread around


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Yeah, would need huge, impossible shifts for that to happen!
 
Similar to the GFS, it appears the mid-levels especially near the dendritic growth zone are at or close to saturation over a large area inland from the Carolinas and GA, however the air is way too dry over north GA and extreme upstate SC and the central-western piedmont, closer to RDU it's doable with a dry layer extending only between 850 hPa and the surface
ecmwf_rh500_nc_13.png
ecmwf_rh850_raleigh_14.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Similar to the GFS, it appears the mid-levels especially near the dendritic growth zone are at or close to saturation over a large area inland from the Carolinas and GA, however the air is way too dry over north GA and extreme upstate SC and the central-western piedmont, closer to RDU it's doable with a dry layer extending only between 850 hPa and the surface
View attachment 2493
View attachment 2492
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Darn it!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Similar to the GFS, it appears the mid-levels especially near the dendritic growth zone are at or close to saturation over a large area inland from the Carolinas and GA, however the air is way too dry over north GA and extreme upstate SC and the central-western piedmont, closer to RDU it's doable with a dry layer extending only between 850 hPa and the surface
View attachment 2493
View attachment 2492
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THANK YOU for giving reason here. That should end the wishcasting for us up here and over here in AL, N GA, and Upstate SC as well as W NC. It's dry completely between the DGZ and surface, so everything should evaporate.
 
ForsythSnow said:
THANK YOU for giving reason here. That should end the wishcasting for us up here and over here in AL, N GA, and Upstate SC as well as W NC. It's dry completely between the DGZ and surface, so everything should evaporate.
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Ugh.. too bad. I was hopeful but guess it's impossible. On to the next, if there even is a next
 
ForsythSnow said:
THANK YOU for giving reason here. That should end the wishcasting for us up here and over here in AL, N GA, and Upstate SC as well as W NC. It's dry completely between the DGZ and surface, so everything should evaporate.
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That’s where it stands as of now taken verbatim. That would obviously change if this thing bombed out sooner, resulting in it riding the coast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
THANK YOU for giving reason here. That should end the wishcasting for us up here and over here in AL, N GA, and Upstate SC as well as W NC. It's dry completely between the DGZ and surface, so everything should evaporate.
Click to expand...

I could see this legitimately trending as far west as Charlotte or Greensboro in NC but west of there I wouldn't given this much credence atm
 
Someone said that the UKMET pops a low in the Gulf which is possible. There maybe a weak surface low that pops up along the frontal boundary in the Gulf. Even if there will be a weak low, the moisture that will be associated with the low won't make it further north, due to an offshore flow. Now the main system that pops up in the southwestern Atlantic, I don't think that system will trend much further west. Even if the system does trend further west, I don't expect moisture reaching beyond west of the APPs. The mountains may get some snow due to lift, but it won't be from the main system. Eric can add better details onto this if he wants.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
That’s where it stands as of now taken verbatim. That would obviously change if this thing bombed out sooner, resulting in it riding the coast.
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We would have to have a complete failure of the Euro on the 500MB level and a different setup for a sudden shift like that. 0.00001% chance that happens. I say next winter! We're done here in N GA for large storms this year.
 
ForsythSnow said:
We would have to have a complete failure of the Euro on the 500MB level and a different setup for a sudden shift like that. 0.00001% chance that happens. I say next winter! We're done here in N GA for large storms this year.
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Wow, writing off winter before we even get in Jan? Interesting. I mean I’m playing with house money as I have already gone beyond my average annual snowfall, but I’m greedy!
 
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