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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

1300m said:
No kidding, this ain't bad at all!

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unless ukie has some moisture today/tonight, that is actually a nice increase around here as well. and in south GA
 
deltadog03 said:
unless ukie has some moisture today/tonight, that is actually a nice increase around here as well. and in south GA
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Kinda looks like what CMC was showing with a north trend with moisture correct?
 
ForsythSnow said:
You won't see that moisture up GA after today guaranteed. I really think that is from the virga we are getting today.
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Definitely not in North Georgia, but I've seen some ensembles that throw some precip back in south central GA with this (not many but a few). I'd need to see the UKMET run for myself as the OPs haven't really shown anything precip wise in East GA for New Years outside of the UK on one occasion.
 
chaser is waive is faster and a bit further west from 00z run through hr 30 if my eyes are working
 
carolinachaos said:
If the low was to follow that gradient, wouldn't that introduce warmer air into the system allowing more mixing, if this system were to be that close?

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Maybe, but the 850mb low/vorticity is also offshore as well so no warm nosing issues. One issue is the SFC dewpoint depressions.

However, with that said, there is a lot of complexity out there and the SFC low tp upper air isn't quite aligned like it should be on modeling.
 
I'm not that good at reading the classic UK maps, but it does look better to me, it's much closer to the coast if I'm correct.
 
EURO was **VERY** close for a run like it had back when this first started as a possibility. More precipitation, even some showing in southern MS now, better coverage over SE GA and into the I-95 corridor of the Carolinas. MUCH better than the 00z run. Still, this look needs to happen sooner, and its trying. We still do have too much energy competition over the Western Atlantic. I will say this though, and so has others many times, I do feel like given the H5 look the SFC low (and QPF) will be closer to the coast and QPF further inland. I will eat massive CROW if we don't get back that far.
 
I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if we end up going back to what the Euro had at first. If we had another day or two that just might happen but I do think we come up short.
 
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