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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

ILMRoss said:
how earnest is this, i'm having trouble because i realize not everyone is in on how bare bones a lot of these stations are operated
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My guess is, other than an intern here and there, they are basically solo when they are on shift (actual forecast wise). I mean just from my wannabe pov, when there is a severe threat and they are on the air for an extended period of time, they usually bring in another one of the tv mets from a different shift. Doesn't seem like an army of people to me
 
Snowlover87 said:
That's really sad. So many people have jobs that they hate and that is no way to live. I'd rather be dead than have to go to a job that I hate every day.
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You're so dramatic lol. I actually like being above ground and being able to pay my bills, so yes I'm sick of it but thinks for reminding me it beats the alternative.
 
Metwannabe said:
My guess is, other than an intern here and there, they are basically solo when they are on shift (actual forecast wise). I mean just from my wannabe pov, when there is a severe threat and they are on the air for an extended period of time, they usually bring in another one of the tv mets from a different shift. Doesn't seem like an army of people to me
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basically this. when i was in broadcast and worked weekends i would roll in around 2:45, have three hours to prepare basically. for a higher share of forecasts than you think, especially in summer when the pattern is stagnant, you can lean on the forecast you are inheriting from the previous shift. you could make a few tweaks here and there by looking at trends and comparing mos guidance and reading the afd and conjure a usable forecast pretty easily

the only times i had help was my first weekend. my last weekend was the dec 2018 storm and i was on the phone with my chief discussing my forecast (i had higher totals than nws/competitors) but he didn't come in. for occasional severe (not a big severe market, west virginia) i would generally man solo. for the majority of mets it is a solo operation, especially on weekends
 
CaryWx said:
wha'happin?
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Ha ha... From the message we got every time we tried to load the site:

"Contact your hosting provider letting them know your web server is not completing requests. An Error 522 means that the request was able to connect to your web server, but that the request didn't finish. The most likely cause is that something on your server is hogging resources."
 
1300m said:
I hate it more now than I did before.
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Oh yeah, it's easily capable of this on the next run.
tenor.gif
 
JHS said:
This one may have a chance if for no other reason than the history of that part of February for the Carolinas. The cold would be coming in from the NE too instead of having to cross the mountains.
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It’s just fun to still be in the game. We’re hurting out this way so hope is good in life.
 
CaryWx said:
Oh yeah, it's easily capable of this on the next run.
tenor.gif
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Yep and now we're all (and I'm probably more guilty than anyone) of looking at every run from now to verification trying to figure out how we can trend back to that run. It's always one trend away from getting back....
 
1300m said:
Yep and now we're all (and I'm probably more guilty than anyone) of looking at every run from now to verification trying to figure out how we can trend back to that run. It's always one trend away from getting back....
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If this were 72hrs from now (plus a few runs in a row) you'd take it more seriously?
 
CaryWx said:
Did you break something earlier Shawn?
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Nah. I was talking about the models coming around showing good stuff. It's been on the experimental for 3 days now, consistently.

We should be good now, tech wise, but we are going to be moving hosting providers in the near future. There's going to be some down-time during that, but it's for the best. We are going to offload all our images/attachments to a storage facility elsewhere to help out the server itself. Along with that, we are going to use a much faster web server architecture and hopefully, (fingers crossed) if we stay on this software, a whole new look.
 
Shawn said:
Nah. I was talking about the models coming around showing good stuff. It's been on the experimental for 3 days now, consistently.

We should be good now, tech wise, but we are going to be moving hosting providers in the near future. There's going to be some down-time during that, but it's for the best. We are going to offload all our images/attachments to a storage facility elsewhere to help out the server itself. Along with that, we are going to use a much faster web server architecture.
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CaryWx said:
If this were 72hrs from now (plus a few runs in a row) you'd take it more seriously?
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The snow weenie in me would say yes, but let me level with you honestly haha.

I am responsible for alerting our state employees across the state in nine different offices of weather hazards. We/I carry a reputation of being "better/more accurate" than tv and the NWS, especially with our winter weather alert emails and statewide snowfall accumulation maps.

I wouldn't even dream of sending an email considering nwp performance over the past several years until we have close to deterministic model consensus and that likely wouldn't occur until we are inside of 96 hrs prior to verification. I definitely wouldn't create a snow map until we are 48 hours out.

P.S. I'll also say that one reason why We/I carry the reputation we do is I don't issue 11 call maps before an event like some individuals (including some which have been heavily discussed on here recently) - I usually issue one or at the max (ever in a decade) two. I believe you stand behind your forecast and you don't make one until you're confident in it.
 
CaryWx said:
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Trying to keep everything kind of how it is for this Winter season if we can get by. We are likely going to run into some issues during the migration process and we also need to have some discussions on the best route to take for certain ideas we have.

So yeah, slapping band-aids is best right now until we slow down as we head to Spring.
 
1300m said:
The snow weenie in me would say yes, but let me level with you honestly haha.

I am responsible for alerting our state employees across the state in nine different offices of weather hazards. We/I carry a reputation of being "better/more accurate" than tv and the NWS, especially with our winter weather alert emails and statewide snowfall accumulation maps.

I wouldn't even dream of sending an email considering nwp performance over the past several years until we have close to deterministic model consensus and that likely wouldn't occur until we are inside of 96 hrs prior to verification. I definitely wouldn't create a snow map until we are 48 hours out.
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Yep, for purposes of discussion here we're all informal on any real high faith progg I would like to think. I probably should have used the word higher 'confidence' :cool:
 
Shawn said:
Trying to keep everything kind of how it is for this Winter season if we can get by. We are likely going to run into some issues during the migration process and we also need to have some discussions on the best route to take for certain ideas we have.

So yeah, slapping band-aids is best right now until we slow down as we head to Spring.
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You predict any load/high-volume issues if we get into a real ballgame here?
 
CaryWx said:
Yep, for purposes of discussion here we're all informal on any real high faith progg I would like to think. I probably should have used the word higher 'confidence' :cool:
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I gotcha. Well, in that case, I would say my confidence would increase if the euro was showing several runs like this inside of D6 (with EPS support from at least close to 1/2 or more of members) but I never trust the GFS beyond D4. In almost every event this winter it has had drastic, event-altering adjustments at mid-levels until about 96 hours out. Not to say the euro is locked-in at D5 or D6 either, but the GFS rarely, rarely has been recently.
 
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