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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Myfrotho704_ said:
The Indian Ocean is about to lose influence completely. Might be a KW left over in the southern IO but that’s about it, all MJO forcing looks to move into the pacific, and the VP maps even show it in the general vicinity of the whem threshold, the RMM phase maps don’t tell everything and I see it posted often, but it doesn’t tell the full story. Normally when we get majority of forcing past the dateline is when good stuff starts happening so I’m shocked that we don’t have the best looks right now.
But there’s a lot of stuff weighing into the pacific jet, +EAMT/upcoming +AAM/MJO moving east, that’s a lot of momentum, maybe too much at once. This is a El Niño look though for sure, but rather a early cool season Nino look View attachment 142863View attachment 142864
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Yeah even the RMM charts show are in fairly good agreement of things going low amp or even COD
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Are we gonna have a big piece of the south finish BN for January or are we about to blow it in the 4th quarter again?
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I’m not really sure. Does anyone have a current MTD temperature anamoly map? I can never get it to load. If I had to take guess, it’s definitely going to take a big hit next week, but then CAD areas might have the torch cut short a bit.
 
This literally pisses me off, as I said earlier how is it possible for LES to occur in the small ass lakes of North Texas but not off of Lake Norman which is pretty frickin big.

Is it an elevation thing, is it because the air was just THAT cold?

 
SimeonNC said:
Weird nerd rage aside, I hope CLT doesn't make it out of the 20s Saturday. That would be cool.
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I don’t think that will happen but if the winds calm early enough Saturday evening, there’s a shot at single digit lows Sunday morning. GSP has a low forecast of 13 right now but the wind not calming until later
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
was really hoping I’d get to hear someone say my favorite line “Cold air shouldn’t be an issue with this one.” right before getting warm nosed. Looks like I’ll have to wait til next year
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I’m gonna say that here Tuesday! ?
While I’m watching rain wash my chair!
I don’t know how you go from low of -10 on Sunday night, to rain on Tuesday! ?
 
SimeonNC said:
This literally pisses me off, as I said earlier how is it possible for LES to occur in the small ass lakes of North Texas but not off of Lake Norman which is pretty frickin big.

Is it an elevation thing, is it because the air was just THAT cold?

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Both times I've heard of it in Dallas yeah it was extremely cold

And as far as Sunday Night went there just happened to be a disturbance aloft apparently
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t think that will happen but if the winds calm early enough Saturday evening, there’s a shot at single digit lows Sunday morning. GSP has a low forecast of 13 right now but the wind not calming until later
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3K NAM and HRRR only has CLT reaching 30 for a couple of hours Saturday afternoon. The northern parts of town and anywhere that isn't completely covered in concrete has a legit shot of not making to 30.
 
Snow Sucks! said:
It's wild how some of us made very early calls that February was falling apart and got blasted for it, told how it's wrong.

Yet professional forecasters are saying the same thing more and more every day.

Hm.
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Some on here was even praising highly how the end of Jan and early Feb was going to be the best pattern with best shot at winter weather. Yeah that's gonna work out great for them

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
 
Twister said:
Some on here was even praising highly how the end of Jan and early Feb was going to be the best pattern with best shot at winter weather. Yeah that's gonna work out great for them

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
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I was one of the latter. Globally things looked okay, but nope. Looks like it's all falling apart now.

Now we are trying to find how if we get lucky, maybe we can see something vs. a great pattern.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
lol how would we even get out of this? Double whammy up top. This is that ‘nail in the coffin’ kind of look imoView attachment 142888
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We are going to have to pull a late February 2015. We are going to nuke our continent with pacific garbage because of these Arctic shots. What is discouraging is that we never recovered from it when the same thing happened in Late December 2022. We ended up losing the next few weeks because of it & then the ridge took over. I can see things coming together right at the tail end of Winter with some chances in early to mid Feb. We need an harambe size late Feb 2004 storm to save us all.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
lol how would we even get out of this? Double whammy up top. This is that ‘nail in the coffin’ kind of look imoView attachment 142888
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Come on Jimmy. You can roll the model forward and see the action to get out of it. The only real issue for the first part of Feb is the pac jet everything else went as expected
 
Mitch West said:
We are going to have to pull a late February 2015. We are going to nuke our continent with pacific garbage because of these Arctic shots. What is discouraging is that we never recovered from it when the same thing happened in Late December 2022. We ended up losing the next few weeks because of it & then the ridge took over. I can see things coming together right at the tail end of Winter with some chances in early to mid Feb. We need an harambe size late Feb 2004 storm to save us all.
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Somehow we got blanked in Feb 2015. I guess the pattern wasn’t good for the I-20 corridor.
 
SD said:
Come on Jimmy. You can roll the model forward and see the action to get out of it. The only real issue for the first part of Feb is the pac jet everything else went as expected
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Yeah I can easily think of a pattern much worse than an over active jet; a big old SE heat dome. That said, that sounds ok right now.
 
Snowlover87 said:
Somehow we got blanked in Feb 2015. I guess the pattern wasn’t good for the I-20 corridor.
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I got blanked here in Columbia too. But in general, it was a really great pattern. Right up the road in the Northern Midlands, they had a really bad ice storm at like 31-32 degrees. Wild little stretch that basically saved what was a pretty lackluster Winter during the rest of the time.
 
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