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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

crecre9 said:
Happy for everyone getting good snow out of this. Hardly anything happening in Huntsville at the moment, back to very light sleet showers. The temperature does continue to drop however, down to 22/19 here.In Rogersville. Heavy bursts of snow the change back to sleet quickly. 19 here now with a steady sleet shower. The snow is a dry fluffy powder and sleet is small hard frozen so it has ample time/depth to freeze solidly.
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J.C. said:
It really is. We have a full proof cold weather shield in place. I’m interested to see if if actually moves when it is supposed to. I feel like it’s actually gone north some today.
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I hung around 34 for a long time but have gone all the way to 39. Not sure if it is the ridge or just solar. I have a feeling when the sun goes down the front will start pushing south.
 
EmersonGA said:
I hung around 34 for a long time but have gone all the way to 39. Not sure if it is the ridge or just solar. I have a feeling when the sun goes down the front will start pushing south.
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This was the 3kNAM at 18z yesterday for highs this afternoon:

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This is what we have currently:
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Yet another classic case of melting-induced frontogenesis near the rain-snow line over southern TN today.

Advancing low-mid level warm advection is partially offset by melting snow aloft near the rain-snow line.

This causes the local temperature gradient to increase, enhancing local frontogenesis & ascent, leading to higher snowfall rates and larger dendrites near and just to the cold side of the rain-snow line.

I've always had a soft spot for overrunning events like this for this very reason. It's hard for models to sniff out subtle warm advection aloft like this. Furthermore, the aforementioned secondary latent heating (absorption) feedbacks associated with this warm advection lead to even greater increases in precipitation &/or snowfall rates, particularly in a narrow band close to the rain-snow line. It's a beautiful thing to watch unfold in real time.

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hashslingingslasher256 said:
Can’t remember my last ice storm here in Gadsden. Is there any way for this to fall as anything other than freezing rain? Worried about power outages. We are 100% electric
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It comes down to timing. How much of the moisture is left when it gets to freezing. From what the models are showing, there will be freezing rain and a mix. Now we wait to see how much.
 
GFS Wed morning
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Webberweather53 said:
Yet another classic case of melting-induced frontogenesis near the rain-snow line over southern TN today.

Advancing low-mid level warm advection is partially offset by melting snow aloft near the rain-snow line.

This causes the local temperature gradient to increase, enhancing local frontogenesis & ascent, leading to higher snowfall rates and larger dendrites near and just to the cold side of the rain-snow line.

I've always had a soft spot for overrunning events like this for this very reason. It's hard for models to sniff out subtle warm advection aloft like this. Furthermore, the aforementioned secondary latent heating (absorption) feedbacks associated with this warm advection lead to even greater increases in precipitation &/or snowfall rates, particularly in a narrow band close to the rain-snow line. It's a beautiful thing to watch unfold in real time.
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I drove up to the AL Tennessee border north of Huntsville about an hour ago. Some of the biggest flakes I’ve ever seen. Pancakes. Extremely high rates and then sleet started to mix back in and takeover even there. About 3 inches in the ground.

Those first few counties that stayed all snow up there have a legit shot at half a foot I imagine.
 
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