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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

SD said:
There's a lot of WAA aloft I'm afraid that a lot of it guys in Bama are sleet/freezing rain that might end as a little snow especially north and west
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oh well maybe nam being nam...lets see what other guidance says
 
DopplerWx said:
Can’t remember how did the models look this far out then? Cant remember if they ever showed a hit and backed off or if it was slight adjustments to go time
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Went from weenie runs, to suppression under 100, to runs showing nothing except for freezing drizzle back on the coast, back to a solid snow event under 48. Biggest flop ever from the NAM and HRRR. @jackendrickwx has the nam trend gif when it came back
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Went from weenie runs, to suppression under 100, to runs showing nothing except for freezing drizzle back on the coast, back to a solid snow event under 48. Biggest flop ever from the NAM and HRRR. @jackendrickwx has the nam trend gif when it came back
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Yea I think literally the day before I had no hope for us in clt and then the hrrr started a massive shift
 
DopplerWx said:
Can’t remember how did the models look this far out then? Cant remember if they ever showed a hit and backed off or if it was slight adjustments to go time
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It was a storm that was just basically going to be for coastal sections only until about 36 hours before the storm
 
SD said:
If it's warmer aloft versus the rest it's usually a red flag that it might be on to something but it does have a tendency to over amp/overdo waa
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NAM was the first model to show an all ZR event here last weekend. Agree, it over amps sometimes but the warning shots can't be totally ignored.
 
Phil Connors said:
I’m not buying zr/ip as precip type here in AL. Too much arctic air rushing south.


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Arctic is often very shallow. I was on a business trip to Denver one time and the temperature in town was near zero while at the ski resorts at higher elevations just to the west, it was in the lower 30s
 
Chazwin said:
Arctic is often very shallow. I was on a business trip to Denver one time and the temperature in town was near zero while at the ski resorts at higher elevations just to the west, it was in the lower 30s
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That and the cold can't get over the pass. I've experienced the same thing, 25 in Breck, drove down to Denver and it was 8. It was bizarre.
 
I mean during the last few days we have gone from over amped and almost completely flipped to under so there is a good possibility we’ve seen an over correction on models and we see trends back towards something, but only time will tell. Just goes to tell the changes that can happen fast and small adjustments can make for big outcomes. I do think we’re seeing this already as some of the new model outcomes look to be trying to throw more precip back inland.

EPS from a few days ago. Lots of amped up members with lots of precip farther inland
IMG_9692.jpeg

18z GFS barely getting precip. inland
IMG_9694.png
 
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