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Pattern Jammin January 2024

CaryWx said:
Question: Would you rank up there with snowpack to the NW?
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I don't think there's an argument to be made that snow pack doesn't help. It does. But how much, is the question. And how deep does it need to be? And how expansive? I don't know. But my guess is, for winter storms in the SE, maybe it helps improve the odds by 5-10%. Like with other things though, it's situational. That said, I don't know how many winter storms for various parts of the SE had snow pack to the northwest, nor how expansive it was, historically speaking.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't think there's an argument to be made that snow pack doesn't help. It does. But how much, is the question. And how deep does it need to be? And how expansive? I don't know. But my guess is, for winter storms in the SE, maybe it helps improve the odds by 5-10%. Like with other things though, it's situational.
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The snowpack only helps if you have a good pattern to go along with it. It’s like having a hot fudge dispenser in your kitchen. You’re not going to eat it unless you have some Bryer’s Vanilla Bean in the freezer ready to go with it.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't think there's an argument to be made that snow pack doesn't help. It does. But how much, is the question. And how deep does it need to be? And how expansive? I don't know. But my guess is, for winter storms in the SE, maybe it helps improve the odds by 5-10%. Like with other things though, it's situational. That said, I don't know how many winter storms for various parts of the SE had snow pack to the northwest, nor how expansive it was, historically speaking.
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Who knows, but look at it this way. There is a massive snowpack in the midwest right now, and look where its going to snow in two days and where it isn't.
 
Chazwin said:
When I say boardwide, major winter storm I’m basically meaning Texas Panhandle to Carolina coast and those historically happen every 30-40 years. January 2011 was close but the storm dampened out and brought very little to the eastern Carolinas
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We’re sitting at 35 years then so your saying we’re close ?
 
Had a flizzard the other day and now a legit little snow shower for the past couple hours.. it’s so cold up here everything is sticking no matter how light it is. Wind makes it worse and blows everything around. Starting to see white. Wasn’t really expecting much with how models were trending but these shallow snows I guess I have to get used to! IMG_3026.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Had a flizzard the other day and now a legit little snow shower for the past couple hours.. it’s so cold up here everything is sticking no matter how light it is. Wind makes it worse and blows everything around. Starting to see white. Wasn’t really expecting much with how models were trending but these shallow snows I guess I have to get used to! View attachment 141884
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Are you in Illinois now?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Had a flizzard the other day and now a legit little snow shower for the past couple hours.. it’s so cold up here everything is sticking no matter how light it is. Wind makes it worse and blows everything around. Starting to see white. Wasn’t really expecting much with how models were trending but these shallow snows I guess I have to get used to! View attachment 141884
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This is more snow than some have seen since 1993 if you believe what they say
 
-76 dewpoint in Cut Bank, if a 5 mph breeze gets you -50 wind chills i would hate to see 15 mph winds...source air for next week is cold just need to wet to go with it.

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Fyi. Bills steelers game is gonna be in a heavy lake effect warning. Chiefs in a freezer bowl. Bills steelers will be fun to watch. Heavy snow with 25 to 30mph gust
 
Ok weather fam, talk to me about this one. What do we need to do to make this work for us East of the Apps? This seems to be our last chance before we warm up some. We need to dig this further West & South right? Seems like the cold air is there. It digs so aggressively North to South as it seems we are in the process of losing our digging mechanism as the pattern is transitioning. Appreciate the knowledge on here!
ecmwf-deterministic-east-vort500_z500-5752000.png
 
Mitch West said:
Ok weather fam, talk to me about this one. What do we need to do to make this work for us East of the Apps? This seems to be our last chance before we warm up some. We need to dig this further West & South right? Seems like the cold air is there. It digs so aggressively North to South as it seems we are in the process of losing our digging mechanism as the pattern is transitioning. Appreciate the knowledge on here!
View attachment 141947
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Yes I noticed that too on the Euro. I am no expert, but it has that “bomb” potential on it just based on H5. I would agree it needs to dig a little more or go more negative tilt, similar to the storm next week.
 
GFS is far more amped with with system, but we rain and eastern Tennessee/the mountains win. Just not a great look with the orientation of the energy. Would be a different story if we had lower heights in the Atlantic or a true 50/50 low
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS is far more amped with with system, but we rain and eastern Tennessee/the mountains win. Just not a great look with the orientation of the energy. Would be a different story if we had lower heights in the Atlantic or a true 50/50 low
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I mean we sorta do have a good Atlantic. I could see some tweaks with this and things turning really interesting...

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rburrel2 said:
I mean we sorta do have a good Atlantic. I could see some tweaks with this and things turning really interesting...

View attachment 142007
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I guess we kind of do have one, but it seemingly moves out quick, so WAA is a big issue.
It’s a whole different story if we can tilt our early week system and that by itself would slow the whole Atlantic down.
Key here is digging that trough around Newfoundland farther south and slowing down the low that bombs out. Would also help if we dug the southern wave some more E07768EB-EEBF-41E1-AEC3-8FE068243846.png82FDED64-ADEF-40A7-AF1C-B1B032CBF7F3.png
 
rburrel2 said:
I mean we sorta do have a good Atlantic. I could see some tweaks with this and things turning really interesting...

View attachment 142007
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That high pressure in SE Canada is up to 1033, I noticed it was 1031 and further north on 6Z. At least there is better high placement compared to the earlier event, and maybe it can trend stronger and further south.
 
This one has more potential than the Jan 15 wave. Watch this wave entering the SW.. needs to trend stronger, more consolidated, and kick out faster to allow a western ridge to build up. With a trough east of HI that should force a downstream ridge to build over the SW so it's plausible.

That would allow a stronger gulf low to develop. You will see precip breaking out over TX, AR, LA, then really get going when the PJ wave starts dropping in.Screenshot_20240113-113022.png
 
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wow said:
This one has more potential than the Jan 15 wave. Watch this wave entering the SW.. needs to trend stronger, more consolidated, and kick out faster to allow a western ridge to build up. With a trough east of HI that should force a downstream ridge to build over the SW so it's plausible.

That would allow a stronger gulf low to develop. You will see precip breaking out over TX, AR, LA, then really get going when the PJ wave starts dropping in.
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Must be legit when Wow makes an appearance
 
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