Pattern Jammin January 2024

[Mahomeless]

I feel like we will trend to a colder more suppressed look, especially with how models have handled systems so far this season. This is a major cold plunge that is almost always underplayed. Loving the I-20/59 to I-40 corridor right now through AL/TN.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Tough crowd today. This is more than worth talking about

 

[TheBatman]

Hey can you post the GEFS?

GEFS hold serve if not a little better for Bama and Miss folks.

 

[KyloG]

If we don't see snow, east of the mountains with this pattern this will be the ultimate troll job by the models.

 

[Mahomeless]

GEFS hold serve if not a little better for Bama and Miss folks. View attachment 140879

Thread time!

 

[WSW]

 

[Ross]

Tough crowd today. This is more than worth talking aboutView attachment 140877View attachment 140876

*sees another 200+ hr frame*


still a fruitful pattern but the east of the apps crowd is wearing thin (myself included)

edit- that gefs frame above me looks solid. most exciting euro run coming up for me at least this winter

 

[NWMSGuy]

GEFS hold serve if not a little better for Bama and Miss folks. View attachment 140879

Any thoughts on which model has a better handle with this threat? GFS/EURO?

 

[KyloG]

GEFS following the Euro/EPS of trying to break the blocking down in the long range only to back off that.

 

[coldfront22]

How good is this pattern east of the Apps heading into the final 10 days of January? I feel like we are close but not quite there yet.
Thanks for your inputs.

 

[olhausen]

It's gonna be hard to top the one in December 2022 here. We went from 40s to a flash freeze in 15 minutes. I had never seen a front like that and I've been in the Plains for 8 years now

Yeah that was a wild one here also.

 

[Mitch West]

How good is this pattern east of the Apps heading into the final 10 days of January? I feel like we are close but not quite there yet.
Thanks for your inputs.

It’s at a range that will change about 729 times. Hard to tell. This pattern coming up is great but apparently it’s a La Niña Winter & we didn’t get the memo.

 

[BullCityWx]

How good is this pattern east of the Apps heading into the final 10 days of January? I feel like we are close but not quite there yet.
Thanks for your inputs.

I think early on, it's going to be key to have one or possibly both of two things: latitude or elevation. I see north of 40/85 seeing something in the next week(even if it's just a trace) and the events moving south from there. I think if you're in the US 74 corridor, you're going to have to be patient(I understand that, I grew up in Gaston Co)

 

[coldfront22]

Agree West. Hard to believe we will not see an opportunity or two by early Feb. La Nina curse maybe.

 

[Rain Cold]

Tough crowd today. This is more than worth talking aboutView attachment 140877View attachment 140876

Honestly, this is a legitimate snowstorm threat from a background pattern perspective. What do you have nearby just waiting to be tapped and fed into the area? You got it, a truly cold air mass. And what do you have moving in at almost the perfect trajectory to feed it in? Correct again, arctic high pressure. It will have been cold preceding the system, and there should be plenty of snowpack2023™ to prevent rapid air mass modification (RAMM).

What are we missing? A bit of blocking and a bona fide 50/50 low. That said, if the GFS is breaking down the block too fast, we may end up with a better picture off of the NE US/Canada mainland. Even a bit of confluence there would elevate the threat of a banana high developing in the NE and also act as a speed bump to the storm to allow time for amplification, rather than it racing off to the NE. There's uncertainty as to the degree of energy that will be available and it's exact placement to spark a storm, but should one emerge, it would more than likely be favorably located; this doesn't look like a cutter pattern at all. Plus, there's no real Lakes low to screw with thermals.

It always all comes down to the details. But big picture, this look, should it hold, ought to be of significant interest for those areas east of the Apps. It is worth watching, assuming other models generally corroborate.

 

[accu35]

Here she comes

 

[SnowwxAtl]

View attachment 140891
Here she comes

Where she is going and she is going to make us happy is the question?? let's reel it in!

 

[Snowfan]

Euro held back the TPV more this run.

 

[BullCityWx]

Nashville went from like 8-9" to 2"

 

[JLL1973]

im not impressed with any of the 12z model suites. Hope this is not the beginng of a trend

 

[SnowwxAtl]

im not impressed with any of the 12z model suites. Hope this is not the beginng of a trend

Let's see what the EPS say!

 

[NBAcentel]

Maybe we can trend this to a cold air damming event in the Carolinas. 50/50 low kinda sneaking in there if we continue to slow things down

 

[BullCityWx]

Maybe we can trend this to a cold air damming event in the Carolinas. 50/50 low kinda sneaking in there View attachment 140897 if we continue to slow things down View attachment 140895

You could see the isobars sorta bending around

 

[accu35]

im not impressed with any of the 12z model suites. Hope this is not the beginng of a trend

There not all that bad, your gonna get different outlooks on runs. Today may show less precip and tonight or tomorrow it could go all Boom for your area. We still have plenty of time to approve

 

[WSW]

Euro definitely nothing like the GFS. Still very much in play.

 

[Snowfan]

Delayed but not denied.

 

[WSW]

 

[BullCityWx]

I'm sure someone will find a way to be mad at this look

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I'm sure someone will find a way to be mad at this look

View attachment 140903

The block is breaking down. Trash

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I'm sure someone will find a way to be mad at this look

View attachment 140903

Is that a low off the Baja?

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Looks like it tries towards the end of the run for something, but @240, it's less than meaningless.

Honestly a more realistic depiction of what could occur than what was popping up last night

 

[NBAcentel]

Looking like a very noticeable increase on the EPS in CAD areas, interesting

 

[TheBatman]

The thread is up guys.

Wintry - January 14-16th storm potential.

Let’s reel this one in for the western and mid areas of the south. ??

southernwx.com

 

[LukeBarrette]

Looking like a very noticeable increase on the EPS in CAD areas, interesting

Very good trend at this range, good catch

 

[griteater]

This is 'dangerous' long range type stuff of course, but yeah, high chance that we have a big cutter Jan 12-13. If it's going to be wintry with the next storm after that in the Jan 15-16 timeframe, I'd say it favors the S AR to E TN area (along that line, and a bit south and north of that line). Jan 18-20 is the timeframe that I think offers the most potential for areas deeper into the southeast.

Don't think anything has really changed in the big picture as others have stated. We gotta push lobes of that TPV farther east in SE Canada in order to get the cold air boundary farther SE, then we may have a chance or 2 in the Jan 18-22 timeframe. Don't think this is a hog wild great pattern or anything, but it could produce given the amount of cold air positioned to the NW.

 

[NBAcentel]

Looks better east of the apps. More Atlantic Canada troughing is helping out

 

[olhausen]

View attachment 140803View attachment 140804

Nice brent! Supposedly getting our first flakes of the season later tonight. Not as much as you but it’ll be nice to just see some flakes flying.

 

[packfan98]

EPS with a stout wedge signal. Classic low placement as well on the mean. Still plenty of spread however View attachment 140914View attachment 140915View attachment 140916

Please post in the new dedicated STORM THREAD

 

[NBAcentel]

Please post in the new dedicated STORM THREAD

Could you do me a solid and move it I’ll include premium top quality precip panels if you do

 

[NoSnowATL]

Looks good for TN.