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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Hmm.
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Here she comes. That happened in the blink of an eye. Out of nowhere. Game on. Y’all be safe out there.IMG_5959.jpeg
 
JLL1973 said:
much less precip for midsouth area on 12z gfs
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UNCSC said:
GFS is a big drop in snow for everyone, but still low pressure sitting right off coast with cold air near by. The way for east of aps to score is that coastal low that has shown up the past few runs.
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You’re going to get several different looks. No need to focus on one run. You look at the overall picture.
 
underwhelming gfs run, but not something to gnash teeth about imo

that first shortwave looks like a NE/AR/TE deal and nothing else as the vortex tears that wave to shreds

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

now, the northern stream shortwave, the one rounding the rockies, that certainly has potential. qpf was muted on this run compared to 6z because of a less favorable tilt and broader trough, but still a lot of time left. i could say "wouldn't it be nice" for a lot of things, more digging, stream separation, etc... but it's a weather forum, not a beach boys forum. but that probably is the feature that, if future runs go in our way, elevate this from "potential" to "threat"
 
Mitch West said:
If you compare it to places West of the apps, it was. Places in North GA & Eastern TN didn’t get out the single digits for highs..
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Ok you’re comparing the Piedmont to areas that have a considerably higher elevation. The December 2022 Arctic blast was one in every sense even east of the mountains. Much of the NC Piedmont and SC upstate went more than 50 hours below freezing and there were widespread single digit lows on Christmas Eve
 
ILMRoss said:
underwhelming gfs run, but not something to gnash teeth about imo

that first shortwave looks like a NE/AR/TE deal and nothing else as the vortex tears that wave to shreds

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

now, the northern stream shortwave, the one rounding the rockies, that certainly has potential. qpf was muted on this run compared to 6z because of a less favorable tilt and broader trough, but still a lot of time left. i could say "wouldn't it be nice" for a lot of things, more digging, stream separation, etc... but it's a weather forum, not a beach boys forum. but that probably is the feature that, if future runs go in our way, elevate this from "potential" to "threat"
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Call it a gut feel but my sense for this particular pattern (short/temp whatever it turns out to be) next week is best suited (for mby anyway) to produce in the 19th-21st time range if it does do anything
 
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