I guess we hope for 50/50s that wedge us into a Miller B.
48 hour changes from the 13th-15th GFS ensembleSpeak of the devil. Something just like this will do.
Double barrel ridge over the poles and TPV in the Hudson? Yeah I’ll believe that all dumps out west when I see it. Maybe we do suck that bad these days but that’s a perfect setup for cold in the eastSigh. So much for EPS being the king over the GEFS. Western trough it is...again.
It’s the angle of the Alaskan ridge, but you can see it’s undercut by the jet, and probably phasing with some of the Arctic origin stuff out west, I kinda figured the EPS/GEPS may have been quick but didn’t imagine a whole fold like that. It’s not a bad look for getting legit cold nearby, but we risk getting those 2-3 days where we’re +15 ahead of a front, severe, then a 1-2 day quick but deep cold shot. We need the ridge axis over western Canada, into Alaska
The ridge isn’t angled perfect but even then, with that look I’d expected more cold to go east vs west
forgot ole woof woof was around
Him and JB, for as much crap as they get, are still two of the best at long term pattern recognition in my opinion.
One thing people need to keep in mind is NW Canada is going into the deep freeze. Unlike December, when there was zero chance of deep cold making its way into the CONUS, cold will at least be nearby ready to be tapped. Get that TPV under the NAO block, and I'll take my chances even with a -PNA.
This happens every winter. Then we get the verification scores posted. Then the EPS shows cold again. Then we party. Then it shifts back to a western or Central US trough.Sigh. So much for EPS being the king over the GEFS. Western trough it is...again.
Sigh. So much for EPS being the king over the GEFS. Western trough it is...again.
Ha, yeah the EPS moved west with the pattern at the end and the morning GEFS moved east. Now is the time when we need some Pac Jet extension. The MJO isn't going to help with that. Building Siberia high moving into E Asia could48 hour changes from the 13th-15th GFS ensemble
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The PNA being negative is not good. I know there will be folks that talk about the strong negative NAO. But I read somewhere in most cases it only helps the mid-Atlantic and NE. And from everything I've seen over the years, we need the PNA positive (...in most cases).
That timeframe is kind of like the Bermuda Triangle. Sometimes you jump in and never come out the other side alive
I still argue that with a PV split and a TPV lobe taking up shop south of Hudson Bay locked in by a strongly -NAO, even with a -PNA (not strongly negative of course), a CONUS-wide wintery pattern is on the table.
I sure hope so. Seen too many times where we need some stronger ridging in the west to keep the storms south. Otherwise, we keep getting the same storm tracks currently modeled. Great for everybody just north of us but we always miss out.
immense respect to yourself and webb and myfrotho and all the other long range acolytes because that is a skillset i simply do not have and have no motivation to develop lol. the 300 hr ensembles may as well be an ouija board to meThat timeframe is kind of like the Bermuda Triangle. Sometimes you jump in and never come out the other side alive
So the best sub-seasonal forecasting is "poor"? and seasonal forecasts are fair? why even perform sub-seasonal forecasts?That timeframe is kind of like the Bermuda Triangle. Sometimes you jump in and never come out the other side alive
Because weather weenies are sick in the head.
