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Pattern Jammin January 2024

RDPS Colder than Nam sounding. Warm nose much shallower by good 1500 ft

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ICON has me at 6 hours at or below freezing with close to an inch of precip falling. Even cutting that back 60-75% is pretty moderate to significant icing potential on a model that does tend to have a warm bias and isn’t the best CAD depiction either
 
And i'll add that when models bust too warm on CAD events, it's usually in these type scenario's where we're relying on a stale cold-air mass to not erode away too quickly.

We might not be done playing catch up. The event we had roughly ten years ago was very similar and even the hi-res models verified 4-5 degree's too warm in my backyard just 12 hours before the event started. (Not saying it'll happen this time, just pointing out it's a possibility).
 
iGRXY said:
ICON has me at 6 hours at or below freezing with close to an inch of precip falling. Even cutting that back 60-75% is pretty moderate to significant icing potential on a model that does tend to have a warm bias and isn’t the best CAD depiction either
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It’s actually worse. I’m really at or below freezing 6-9 hours with 1.25” of liquid precip falling. Again even cutting that off by 75% is pretty significant at this range for this model
 
Here's my notes from that storm just to remind everyone that we can get lucky every once in a while!

February 16, 20151 inch of sleet 1/10th inch of icemin temp of 27huge bust in our favor, hi-res models at 31/32 temp and projecting freezing rain to rain as event started, got 90% sleet and just a little freezing rain, wetbulbed to around 27 and temp was still 31 as final band came through
 
Couple of things I’ve noticed is the center of our high is now moving through the mid Atlantic and northeast and it’s slowly but surely been trending stronger. 1030-1032 is what has been modeled as it is over the Northeast. The S/W out west is also moving further and further south. (Globals are notorious for wanting to drive LP into a CAD dome and it isn’t going to happen). Ridging out ahead of the S/W is also weaker a little bit more on tonight’s runs.
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 139829
All of the sudden it’s flatter and more snowier, hmmmm
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Need the trend of it flatter and more south to continue as well as less ridging out ahead. So far that’s been the case on tonight’s runs. You’re also seeing our LP bending around the CAD done vs plowing right through it as the surface low takes over from the ULL the the NW. if we can push it a little further south you’ll see a translation to more ice my way and more snow your way.
 
rburrel2 said:
Here's my notes from that storm just to remind everyone that we can get lucky every once in a while!

February 16, 20151 inch of sleet 1/10th inch of icemin temp of 27huge bust in our favor, hi-res models at 31/32 temp and projecting freezing rain to rain as event started, got 90% sleet and just a little freezing rain, wetbulbed to around 27 and temp was still 31 as final band came through
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nobody ever mentions this storm but this is one of my fav of all time. raleigh was also supposed to get murdered by ZR but it was almost all sleet instead- to the tune of like 3 inches! pretty sure we bottomed out at 19 with it just pouring sleet. my buddies and i were drinking beer under the trailwood overpass on i40 at like 2 am that night and stealing road signs... fond memories of this storm.

but let me also say feb 2015 was historically cold and this pattern... isnt.
 
Here are dewpoints just before the arrival of precip on the GFS if that matters.

sfctd-imp.us_ma.png
 
iGRXY said:
Need the trend of it flatter and more south to continue as well as less ridging out ahead. So far that’s been the case on tonight’s runs. You’re also seeing our LP bending around the CAD done vs plowing right through it as the surface low takes over from the ULL the the NW. if we can push it a little further south you’ll see a translation to more ice my way and more snow your way.
Click to expand...
i feel that if this thing goes even flatter you lose a lot more forcing and qpf. somewhat agree with your second point, the surface reflection may disproportionately shift south against shifts at h5, but don't know if the in-situ cad we're getting is going to cut the mustard to effect LP track that much
 
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