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Pattern Jammin January 2024

MichaelJ said:
For those east of the Apps, nothing on the table for at least 15 days at this point. Guys (and gals) Apps west are likely to see a couple of events during this period, Ark, Tn, parts of Ms and Al
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Unless you are in Virginia, where the Euro shows a couple of threats in that timeframe. Especially the 16th/17th.sn10_acc-imp.conus (8).png
 
CMC ensembles were colder
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I feel like we will trend to a colder more suppressed look, especially with how models have handled systems so far this season. This is a major cold plunge that is almost always underplayed. Loving the I-20/59 to I-40 corridor right now through AL/TN.
 
How good is this pattern east of the Apps heading into the final 10 days of January? I feel like we are close but not quite there yet.
Thanks for your inputs.
 
coldfront22 said:
How good is this pattern east of the Apps heading into the final 10 days of January? I feel like we are close but not quite there yet.
Thanks for your inputs.
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It’s at a range that will change about 729 times. Hard to tell. This pattern coming up is great but apparently it’s a La Niña Winter & we didn’t get the memo.
 
coldfront22 said:
How good is this pattern east of the Apps heading into the final 10 days of January? I feel like we are close but not quite there yet.
Thanks for your inputs.
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I think early on, it's going to be key to have one or possibly both of two things: latitude or elevation. I see north of 40/85 seeing something in the next week(even if it's just a trace) and the events moving south from there. I think if you're in the US 74 corridor, you're going to have to be patient(I understand that, I grew up in Gaston Co)
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Tough crowd today. This is more than worth talking aboutView attachment 140877View attachment 140876
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Honestly, this is a legitimate snowstorm threat from a background pattern perspective. What do you have nearby just waiting to be tapped and fed into the area? You got it, a truly cold air mass. And what do you have moving in at almost the perfect trajectory to feed it in? Correct again, arctic high pressure. It will have been cold preceding the system, and there should be plenty of snowpack2023™ to prevent rapid air mass modification (RAMM).

What are we missing? A bit of blocking and a bona fide 50/50 low. That said, if the GFS is breaking down the block too fast, we may end up with a better picture off of the NE US/Canada mainland. Even a bit of confluence there would elevate the threat of a banana high developing in the NE and also act as a speed bump to the storm to allow time for amplification, rather than it racing off to the NE. There's uncertainty as to the degree of energy that will be available and it's exact placement to spark a storm, but should one emerge, it would more than likely be favorably located; this doesn't look like a cutter pattern at all. Plus, there's no real Lakes low to screw with thermals.

It always all comes down to the details. But big picture, this look, should it hold, ought to be of significant interest for those areas east of the Apps. It is worth watching, assuming other models generally corroborate.
 
JLL1973 said:
im not impressed with any of the 12z model suites. Hope this is not the beginng of a trend
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There not all that bad, your gonna get different outlooks on runs. Today may show less precip and tonight or tomorrow it could go all Boom for your area. We still have plenty of time to approve
 
Looks like it tries towards the end of the run for something, but @240, it's less than meaningless.

Honestly a more realistic depiction of what could occur than what was popping up last night
 
griteater said:
This is 'dangerous' long range type stuff of course, but yeah, high chance that we have a big cutter Jan 12-13. If it's going to be wintry with the next storm after that in the Jan 15-16 timeframe, I'd say it favors the S AR to E TN area (along that line, and a bit south and north of that line). Jan 18-20 is the timeframe that I think offers the most potential for areas deeper into the southeast.
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Don't think anything has really changed in the big picture as others have stated. We gotta push lobes of that TPV farther east in SE Canada in order to get the cold air boundary farther SE, then we may have a chance or 2 in the Jan 18-22 timeframe. Don't think this is a hog wild great pattern or anything, but it could produce given the amount of cold air positioned to the NW.
 
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