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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 139179
This is so close for me in western VA, might go insane if it happens like this
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18z was better for your area

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_28.png
 
Stone Cold Heel said:
I think someone gets off on pointing out anything and everything that is negative with regards to getting snow here.
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My pessimism is from the models showing snow and continuously backing it off a day a time. I want snow as much as anyone here but trying to stay realistic in expectations.
 
What I have found remarkable about this meteorological winter so far is the lack of extremes. I keep joking about our area becoming more oceanic as the climate changes, but this month so far has been a prime example. Here are some stats for the month so far:

Average High: 57.3F -Warm, but not crazy.
Only 2 highs below 50F, which is pretty remarkable. 8 highs in the 60s, but the highest is 65.8F, also pretty remarkable.

The standard deviation of highs is only 5.3F, which seems fairly low to me considering we aren't a maritime/oceanic climate.
 
J.C. said:
What I have found remarkable about this meteorological winter so far is the lack of extremes. I keep joking about our area becoming more oceanic as the climate changes, but this month so far has been a prime example. Here are some stats for the month so far:

Average High: 57.3F -Warm, but not crazy.
Only 2 highs below 50F, which is pretty remarkable. 8 highs in the 60s, but the highest is 65.8F, also pretty remarkable.

The standard deviation of highs is only 5.3F, which seems fairly low to me considering we aren't a maritime/oceanic climate.
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Much of the state from Raleigh eastward and southward is averaging a high above 60 so far this month. A lot of places in the Eastern half of the state are going to finish the year with every month averaging a high above 60. Pretty good, RDU missed that mark by .5 with January at 59.5. No record warmth but a lot of 60s here and a couple 70s. 18 days above 60 2 of those days above 70 and only one day below 50… wild. Think it will be in the top 10 warmest December’s , don’t think it will make top 5 here
 
So the CFS did a flip for the end of its run. Starting at day 16 it now has an extreme cold and wintery look for much of the SE. Of course this is too far out and the 0z run very well could show a warm look again. But it's still fun looking at these outputs.

CFS starting at day 16:
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com


Here's day 25:
1703712860446.png
 
FallsLake said:
So the CFS did a flip for the end of its run. Starting at day 16 it now has an extreme cold and wintery look for much of the SE. Of course this is too far out and the 0z run very well could show a warm look again. But it's still fun looking at these outputs.

CFS starting at day 16:
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com


Here's day 25:
View attachment 139213
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Snow
 
FallsLake said:
So the CFS did a flip for the end of its run. Starting at day 16 it now has an extreme cold and wintery look for much of the SE. Of course this is too far out and the 0z run very well could show a warm look again. But it's still fun looking at these outputs.

CFS starting at day 16:
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com


Here's day 25:
View attachment 139213
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Can’t even get fantasy snow. We just get fantasy ice now. ?
 
superjames1992 said:
Usually I’m too far S/E for the big snow, so it would be fitting to now be too far north for the big snow. Check out that RDU screw job! ?
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LOL yeah. We need a nice Miller A rolling up the coast with some nice deformation bands on the backside. 2016 was amazing in Northern Virginia. Almost 40 inches in parts of Loudoun/Clarke/Frederick counties.
 
I’m seeing a lot of discussion about how Fab Feb will save us in the main threads now. I know the data on this and I am a big proponent of Fab Feb in general and all the great storms it has brought us over the years, but it’s also kind of depressing to be considering punting January before the month has even started. ?
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m seeing a lot of discussion about how Fab Feb will save us in the main threads now. I know the data on this and I am a big proponent of Fab Feb in general and all the great storms it has brought us over the years, but it’s also kind of depressing to be considering punting January before the month has even started. ?
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Some on the mets in the Mid-Atlantic forum on americanwx think we don't have to wait that long, but not sure if that extends further south than Virginia.
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m seeing a lot of discussion about how Fab Feb will save us in the main threads now. I know the data on this and I am a big proponent of Fab Feb in general and all the great storms it has brought us over the years, but it’s also kind of depressing to be considering punting January before the month has even started. ?
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It’s kind of depressing to depend on a month where the avg temps increase a good bit and the sun angle is rapidly increasing.
 
Snowlover87 said:
The first half of February perhaps. Climo becomes much less favorable for the Deep South once we get to the second half of February unless we get some crazy storm like 1993 or 2009.
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Yeah true. I wasn't sure how far south you were.
 
MB22 said:
Yeah true. I wasn't sure how far south you were.
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As I’ve mentioned before it’s been like 14 years since Atlanta had a winter storm past Feb 15. So I’ve declared Feb 15 the cutoff date for winter in the Deep South. And when I say Deep South I’m talking the I-20 to I-10 corridor from Tallahassee to Atlanta.
 
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Snowlover87 said:
As I’ve mentioned before it’s been like 14 years since Atlanta had a winter storm past Feb 15. So I’ve declared Feb 15 the cutoff date for winter in the Deep South.
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Just sounds sooo early. Once i get moved back further north i'm still gonna post with you guys too. Good company.
 
Snowlover87 said:
The first half of February perhaps. Climo becomes much less favorable for the Deep South once we get to the second half of February unless we get some crazy storm like 1993 or 2009.
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You could probably add March 1983 and April 1987 to this list. That April 87 storm dropped over 6 inches of snow in the Birmingham Al area.
 
I can't believe January is Monday and I still have no guarantee of a flake anytime soon

I mean how does the GFS go from a blizzard to nothing in 3 runs
 
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