• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern September 2023 Discussion Thread

We got smoked on the field and from the sky yesterday. Got soaked trying to wait out the delay because they kicked most of us out of the stadium when the delay started. Tons of close lightning and an absolute deluge for a while there. RDU picked up almost 2" and the temp never got above 75F!
 
FallsLake said:
What does it mean to miss out on the hurricane and keep it off our coast --> Beautiful fall weather coming (with the help of the offshore storm).

18z GFS dew points ~noon Friday:
View attachment 136967
Click to expand...
This is something you can always bank on in September when a hurricane is moving north offshore. Gonna be some good weather to get the fire pit going outside in the evening
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Typically when the pacific jet reaches the GOAK, you flood most of CONUS with mild airView attachment 136972
Click to expand...
Definitely some signs there that the STJ is starting to come alive there. Pretty much right on cue for going into October in a moderate to strong El Niño
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Seeing signs in the subseasonal pattern that we may have a overly strong pacific jet in late sept into oct, which would result in warmth
Click to expand...
Yep pattern isn't great. We likely get out of this around 10/10 give or take a week but certainly no longer duration BN until then. Interesting looking back at some analogs quite a few had a big mid October cold shot with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s/30s. All in all looks like a pretty normal nino sept-oct
 
SD said:
Yep pattern isn't great. We likely get out of this around 10/10 give or take a week but certainly no longer duration BN until then. Interesting looking back at some analogs quite a few had a big mid October cold shot with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s/30s. All in all looks like a pretty normal nino sept-oct
Click to expand...
I just hope it's not like the Fall 2002 when the cooler air took forever to get here. I wonder if that was an El Nino also.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Feel like if I posted H5 (esp jan and Feb) for multi year cold ENSOs to a Nino, I’d make the site crash
Click to expand...
Most likely. I worry that this year gets stuck in the redundant cycle of polar pacific air where we just cycle through highs 50-60 and lows 25-35 but we end up with a lot of 33-37 and rain or change over events. We will have to have a legit nao block this year to offset the STJ wanting to creep North and cut off any cold intrusions
 
Last edited:
Myfrotho704_ said:
Feel like if I posted H5 (esp jan and Feb) for multi year cold ENSOs to a Nino, I’d make the site crash
Click to expand...
I doubt it. I heard it was going to be moved around 9/1 after the last tropical Cyclone event. We might could be probably up for good possibly now maybe
 
Fall colors will lag a decent amount at this rate. This upcoming weekend may spark the earliest non-stress signs in WNC high elevations. Mild lows worry me
 
Well not a single drop has fallen I'm right here in the middle of those two somewhat bigger cells no rain at all out of this. Super disappointedScreenshot_20230912_151643_RadarScope.jpg
 
weatherfide said:
We can't seem to sustain these updrafts down my way... ugh. It is soooo dry.
Click to expand...
Despite what looked like good systems moving through barely any rain made it to the ground. There were a few very light sprinkles but not enough to discolor the garden dirt, which is basically powder right now
 
I thought maybe I would make it the entire month with a trace, but picked up .9" between two storms.
 
Snowlover87 said:
The extended outlook for Atlanta is pretty depressing. Looks like the deeper we get into September, the hotter it will get. I wonder when we will have our first big cold front that ushers in high temps near 70 and lows in the 40s ?
Click to expand...
When it normally happens.
 
EmersonGA said:
When it normally happens.
Click to expand...
I have seen many Late September's where there was a strong cold front with lows in the 40s. I have a feeling that may not happen until Mid October this year. My birthday is the first week of October and it's usually very pleasant with chilly nights. I may be sweating on my birthday this year.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I have seen many Late September's where there was a strong cold front with lows in the 40s. I have a feeling that may not happen until Mid October this year. My birthday is the first week of October and it's usually very pleasant with chilly nights. I may be sweating on my birthday this year.
Click to expand...
I did just have a facebook memory pop up of it hitting 51 last year so it does happen. Doesn't seem to happen much though. I was telling my son last week about a time, I think about 15 years ago, where we went fishing at the Nantahala on Labor Day. It was chilly at home but we hit 39 in Mineral Bluff and had jackets on all day when we got to the River.
 
EmersonGA said:
I did just have a facebook memory pop up of it hitting 51 last year so it does happen. Doesn't seem to happen much though. I was telling my son last week about a time, I think about 15 years ago, where we went fishing at the Nantahala on Labor Day. It was chilly at home but we hit 39 in Mineral Bluff and had jackets on all day when we got to the River.
Click to expand...
The high was 70 and low was 44 in Atlanta on 9-26-2001 in Atlanta, and i'm sure it was in the upper 30s in much of North GA. So it can definitely get chilly in Late September. The previous year, in 2000, it was 67 for a high on 9-26-2000 with a low of 51. On 9-29-2003 the high was 67 and low was 46.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top