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Pattern Mega March 2023

ForsythSnow said:
Not too bad how it turned out. Yes fantasy but still
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This has been the same look the entire Winter. They dig, tilt, get to strong & yeet into an oblivion. Texas & Arkansas. Rinse & repeat. Lol ?
 
That upper level low snow falling in Dallas at 240hrs is -10C at 850 with upper 20s surface temps. And the low is just starting to pinch off at that point... it would have to go bowling ball and plow due east from there... it probably slows down to a crawl too with how things were evolving.
 
LickWx said:
Happy meteorological spring yall! 95% of us now have average highs above 60 (I think RDU goes over tomorrow or Friday). In one more month 70 is the average :cool:
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It's what makes me wonder whether or not -8 departures will give us a big snowstorm. 52 seems a tad too warm for snow, but there seems to be some enthusiasm about it, so I guess it's possible.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
You can see the GEFS clearly lagging behind in showing lower heights out west while the EPS and GEPS continues to trend towards weaker heights and even a ridge trying to pop around 7-10 days out View attachment 133804View attachment 133805View attachment 133806
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It gives me pause. The GEFS and GFS op are significantly more subdued as it pertains to the cold and the duration. That op run wasn’t impressive in the least. Though getting to normal and a little BN is a significant accomplishment compared to where we’ve been. I tend to think the Euro is overdoing things a bit.


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Rain Cold said:
It's what makes me wonder whether or not -8 departures will give us a big snowstorm. 52 seems a tad too warm for snow, but there seems to be some enthusiasm about it, so I guess it's possible.
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It is! March can still work though. Different than jan but it happens. Anything past mid March though is probably upper level low driven though? That seems to be the main big snow producer that time of year.
 
ATLwxfan said:
It gives me pause. The GEFS and GFS op are significantly more subdued as it pertains to the cold and the duration. That op run wasn’t impressive in the least. Though getting to normal and a little BN is a significant accomplishment compared to where we’ve been. I tend to think the Euro is overdoing things a bit.


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The GFS and its ensembles are hot garbage. It is on the biggest island by itself right now. Betting against the EPS especially at this range is not a good idea.
 
LickWx said:
It is! March can still work though. Different than jan but it happens. Anything past mid March though is probably upper level low driven though? That seems to be the main big snow producer that time of year.
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In my mind if we don’t get anything by March 15 we’re done. It would take a once in a 40 or 50 year storm to get anything past March 15.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's what makes me wonder whether or not -8 departures will give us a big snowstorm. 52 seems a tad too warm for snow, but there seems to be some enthusiasm about it, so I guess it's possible.
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I’ve seen it snow at 48
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Without digging into the details, given the track and backend anonymous cold, seems to have some similarities with the 93 Super Storm? No?
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Similar sfc low track. Some shortwave phasing on the Control. '93 more extreme phasing of course. No -NAO / Retrograding block in '93
 
ATLwxfan said:
It gives me pause. The GEFS and GFS op are significantly more subdued as it pertains to the cold and the duration. That op run wasn’t impressive in the least. Though getting to normal and a little BN is a significant accomplishment compared to where we’ve been. I tend to think the Euro is overdoing things a bit.


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I would put very little stock into the GFS suite… it has been performing horribly for months and the GFS op is basically useless outside of 4 days when it has no support from other models
 
GFS at 18z continues to be completely out to lunch compared to any other model and it’s ensemble group. Would put little to no stock in it at this point as a high amp phase 8 with blocking in the Arctic and westward retrograding -NAO does not support a pattern it’s laying out in the medium to long range. I think the euro/EPS cmc/GEPS have the right idea (and show similar pattern evolutions as a result) in how this evolution usually pans out with the pieces in play.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
GFS at 18z continues to be completely out to lunch compared to any other model and it’s ensemble group. Would put little to no stock in it at this point as a high amp phase 8 with blocking in the Arctic and westward retrograding -NAO does not support a pattern it’s laying out in the medium to long range. I think the euro/EPS cmc/GEPS have the right idea (and show similar pattern evolutions as a result) in how this evolution usually pans out with the pieces in play.
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It’s an outlier until we see if any of the other models follows suit. I get that it doesn’t make sense in regards to where the indices are headed but how could it be this far off? Seems insane.


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ATLwxfan said:
It’s an outlier until we see if any of the other models follows suit. I get that it doesn’t make sense in regards to where the indices are headed but how could it be this far off? Seems insane.


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The GFS is awful in every metric possible
 
just getting back for a few ,gotta get back focused on severe weather but got to say WOW at euro,taking verbatim...somebody gettin plastered...but lets see if it holds!!
 
spc_mtn said:
No way anyone should believe this now. No need to get excited unless something is showing next Monday.
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Really I’d rather a moderate strength wave come out of the west first and hit the Mid-Atlantic / NE which then establishes the eastern trough behind it, then a have second moderate-strong wave slide west to east into cold air over the SE

The N and NW portions of the forum may prefer to swing for the fences like Mickey Mantle and have the first wave come out in Big Bang fashion per Euro Control (warmer risks)
 
griteater said:
Really I’d rather a moderate strength wave come out of the west first and hit the Mid-Atlantic / NE which then establishes the eastern trough behind it, then a have second moderate-strong wave slide west to east into cold air over the SE

The N and NW portions of the forum may prefer to swing for the fences like Mickey Mantle and have the first wave come out in Big Bang fashion per Euro Control (warmer risks)
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Tonight’s CMC holds strong with its previous runs. Exceptionally cold pattern for march. Impressive evolution here 1677733123230.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Tonight’s CMC holds strong with its previous runs. Exceptionally cold pattern for march. Impressive evolution here View attachment 133833
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850 mb temp evolution is just insane for march. Below freezing all the way through Florida. That’ll support snow over the SE if you can get a system to show up in this time frame 1677733413775.gif
 
Nice line of storms just left the area. Quite a bit of lightning/thunder. Moderate rain was almost heavy a few times. Best thing about the storms was it cleaned some of the gutters out. The rain went from 0 to 100 in a couple seconds.
Bye bye-bye pollen!! See you in a few days.
 
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