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Pattern Mega March 2023

BIG FROSTY said:
No biggie, it's the GFS! It'll have a much different look probably at 00z or no later 06z
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I have no doubt cold is coming. High amp phase 8 and blocking is a recipe for cold in the east. I have a feeling we will see weakening of heights out west by mid March and a pop of a +PNA by then as well.. 1677463143567.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I have no doubt cold is coming. High amp phase 8 and blocking is a recipe for cold in the east. I have a feeling we will see weakening of heights out west by mid March and a pop of a +PNA by then as well.. View attachment 133673
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I’m not sold on a +PNA yet, but I’m definitely sold on a much weaker SER and mostly BN temps for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March. The trend to stronger high latitude blocking has been fairly evident and consistent now.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m not sold on a +PNA yet, but I’m definitely sold on a much weaker SER and mostly BN temps for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March. The trend to stronger high latitude blocking has been fairly evident and consistent now.
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Definitely seems very possible, too bad we’re out of prime climo by then so we really need a good setup to score. It definitely can happen, but it’s harder than in January-February, or even early March.
 
Oof I better enjoy the next 10 days or so. That’s an MJO phase 8 look out of the textbook.


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Never deny when you get a high amp phase 8 plus blocking over top.. you’re going to mute the SER and send cold towards the east .. was only a matter of time before models started emphatically showing this. Does this mean snow? No. But if you want snow in March this is just about how you’re going to get it. Continue to watch for weakening heights out west come mid March .. that will only continue the cold pattern. 1677506929716.gif1677507002733.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Welcome to high amp phase 8 MJO .. fasten your seatbelts we will be launching back into winter View attachment 133687
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Of course it will. This is SE weather standard operating procedure. Warm February, then when it's too late in the season for snow, the pattern becomes cool, just enough to keep you uncomfortably chilly into the season where you wish it would be warm and pleasant. Seems like every year.

Mother nature is the perfect weenie troll, lol.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Wow 2-7degrees below avg. So low 60s down here and yall get mid to low 50s? Wen snowstorm?
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Yeah it's going to take a lot more than greens to get any winter weather. We'll have lows in the mid 30s and highs in the low to mid 50s probably. Maybe we get down to freezing for a night or two. Yay
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah it's going to take a lot more than greens to get any winter weather. We'll have lows in the mid 30s and highs in the low to mid 50s probably. Maybe we get down to freezing for a night or two. Yay
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I mean this is where we are. Pining for those 45° CAD days. I’d rather take a warm sunny day but we’ve had our share of them (at least warm days). If the cold weenies want a week or 2 of BN temps they deserve it!


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SD said:
I guess no one has actually looked at the eps mean or the plumes. That ---- is cold
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Yup not to mention 850s will be cold .. if u get a storm to form in and around that type of air you’re going to find a way to get winter precip on the edge of this airmass .. ex. See euro ensemble noise
 
Snowlover87 said:
I want us to save the cooler than normal weather until June. I don't wanna waste it in March and April !
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The problem is we're the southeast. I tell folks moving here that June, July, and August are hot/humid. We usually get very little to no cool breaks. The month of May is another story. It can be cool/beautiful or summer hot.
 
FallsLake said:
The problem is we're the southeast. I tell folks moving here that June, July, and August are hot/humid. We usually get very little to no cool breaks. The month of May is another story. It can be cool/beautiful or summer hot.
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In my experience, the 1st half of May is usually very pleasant but the 2nd half of May could be hot/humid.
 
I recall 2013 was a really mild summer. Very few days above 90 in ATL. July 4th was rainy and in the low 70’s.


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ATLwxfan said:
I recall 2013 was a really mild summer. Very few days above 90 in ATL. July 4th was rainy and in the low 70’s.


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The summer of 2013 wasn’t terribly hot temp wise, but it was incredibly humid and wet that whole season
 
GFS op shows a lot of our cooling will be CAD driven and doesn’t quite suppress the ridge as much as you might want. We get almost a zonal look. Overnight lows stay above freezing which bodes well for the early blooms.


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weatherfide said:
I mean, this isn't too shabby...EPS means in NC look interesting.View attachment 133698
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That footprint tells me a winter comeback is in play for the northeast and into West Virginia (I think snowshoe may have done ok this winter...) for sure.

And maybe a threat for the NC mountains. Other than that, it's noise, imo for mby.

I'd need some barney purple departures over the Carolinas to make me think there's a chance for a legit threat. And being around so long, I know how this goes.
 
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