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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
The persistent and continuing trend of a legit -NAO to be present in the medium and long range looks increasingly likely. If this continues march could be the most interesting winter month of all of them around here. View attachment 133346
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If 44° and rain is interesting then maybe so. Maybe some mountain ice if you’re into that sort of thing. You might sneak out something up your way.

The -NAO will still have to contend with a relentless -PNA. Some back and forth for sure.


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crecre9 said:
If you look closely at the map,it shows Huntsville near normal. Which is correct.
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I know this goes to banter now, but Guntersville got snow the same time Madison and Huntsville did at least one of the times, but it doesnt't matter, no place in Alabama averages 3 inches a year unless maybe the highest peaks. If they got no snow aT ALL THAT MAP IS WRONG! SAME FOR MISSISSIPPI!
 
NCSNOW said:
30 degrees and snowing up on Beech mtn currently
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29 now and it's coming down pretty good. When snow is hard to come by, at least we have places like this that we can go to rather quickly.

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WEATHERBOYROY said:
I know this goes to banter now, but Guntersville got snow the same time Madison and Huntsville did at least one of the times, but it doesnt't matter, no place in Alabama averages 3 inches a year unless maybe the highest peaks. If they got no snow aT ALL THAT MAP IS WRONG! SAME FOR MISSISSIPPI!
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The 6 to 12 below normal for Southern Mississippi really confuses me.
 
tennessee storm said:
Pna looks stay negative and get lower more as we head towards March
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I wonder why a relentless negative PNA is possible in winter but never a relentless positive PNA. We’re lucky if we get a positive PNA for a week and this is like every winter now. Im so ready to leave La Nina behind. Atlanta statistically does so much better with snow in El Ninos.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Better yet, stop hoping for these out of season heat waves that bring everything out early when we know there will be more freezes later. Just enjoy the chances for cool/cold weather when we have them, the heat will come later regardless.

I know, I know... what we hope for has no bearing but still...
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If we could get snow the cold would be ok. We are not getting winter precip so I prefer it to be warmer. 60-65 would be fine in Jan and Feb. I just do not see any use for the kind of cold we had before Christmas at any time though. That needs to stay well away from here.
 
JHS said:
If we could get snow the cold would be ok. We are not getting winter precip so I prefer it to be warmer. 60-65 would be fine in Jan and Feb. I just do not see any use for the kind of cold we had before Christmas at any time though. That needs to stay well away from here.
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The problem is that we’re setting up to see major agricultural damage later this spring that will produce millions of dollars in losses to farmers with after how warm it will be for a few days next week. Despite what some may think, we will get more cold snaps and hard freezes between now and at least early April. There is going to a lot of berry and peach blossoms that will be coming out next week very early and many of them won’t be surviving to yield fruit.
 
Chazwin said:
The problem is that we’re setting up to see major agricultural damage later this spring that will produce millions of dollars in losses to farmers with after how warm it will be for a few days next week. Despite what some may think, we will get more cold snaps and hard freezes between now and at least early April. There is going to a lot of berry and peach blossoms that will be coming out next week very early and many of them won’t be surviving to yield fruit.
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It's a yearly thing now. We are just stuck in a vicious cycle. I've had one good apple year in the last 5 or so years.
 
EmersonGA said:
It's a yearly thing now. We are just stuck in a vicious cycle. I've had one good apple year in the last 5 or so years.
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Yes and unfortunately it becomes a ripple effect. Farmer’s don’t bring in what they budget on berries, peaches, etc., so that drives prices up on other produce throughout the summer and fall.
 
Chazwin said:
The problem is that we’re setting up to see major agricultural damage later this spring that will produce millions of dollars in losses to farmers with after how warm it will be for a few days next week. Despite what some may think, we will get more cold snaps and hard freezes between now and at least early April. There is going to a lot of berry and peach blossoms that will be coming out next week very early and many of them won’t be surviving to yield fruit.
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That's true enough. Even in the warmest winters we do always seem to have a freeze sometime in April. Even in May at GSP in 1989.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I wonder why a relentless negative PNA is possible in winter but never a relentless positive PNA. We’re lucky if we get a positive PNA for a week and this is like every winter now. Im so ready to leave La Nina behind. Atlanta statistically does so much better with snow in El Ninos.
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It’s everything to do with the relentless Nina. If we transition to El Niño we are likely to see more positive PNA. It’s been a foregone conclusion that El Niño is coming but it’s by no means a sure thing.


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jrips27 said:
GFS has Atlanta getting up to 83 on Thursday which would just be hilarious for February 23rd
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It's happened before (see 2018).

EDIT: Technically, the high on 2/23/18 was 79*F, but it was surrounded by a pair of 83*F on 2/22 and 2/24...
 
ATLwxfan said:
Some good old radiational cooling. One of those 65°/27° days


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I remember the freeze he’s talking about because it occurred right after a major tornado outbreak in the western Carolinas on 5/5… it was a legit May cold snap with highs barely getting into the 50s outside the mountains
 
JHS said:
The 18z GFS is taking away next weekend's cool snap from the NC/VA line and south. Looks like a really long warm and dry period coming up for many of us.
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Yep, looks like the -PNA is winning out. Don’t bet against pattern persistence.

Meanwhile NYC finally gets a good snow!


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Back Yard "thermo" got up too 83F today..

though the "Official High" might have been around 76F or so.. (NWS) @ KILM.

Current Obs.. (Backyard).

65F.. / 57F

Pressure 29.89 in
Visibility Limited & overcast/Mist
Clouds Overcast
Dew Point 63 F
Humidity 97 %
Rainfall 0.31 in
Wind WSW @17MPH..
 
iGRXY said:
EPS still showing a nice transition into a
-NAO and continually holding the 50/50 low. Pacific remains the same but being able to count on CAD to keep things at a minimum average to slightly below average around here will be nice.
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more like slightly above normal, it’s clear the -PNA is gonna keep things on the warmer side with a few cad days, next weekend is a good example as we have went from the wedge to warm
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
more like slightly above normal, it’s clear the -PNA is gonna keep things on the warmer side with a few cad days, next weekend is a good example as we have went from the wedge to warm
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Yes, pretty clear as we get under 5 days we keep seeing the wedge lose ground. Until we see that change there’s no good reason to assume a reliable pattern change takes hold.


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JHS said:
If we could get snow the cold would be ok. We are not getting winter precip so I prefer it to be warmer. 60-65 would be fine in Jan and Feb. I just do not see any use for the kind of cold we had before Christmas at any time though. That needs to stay well away from here.
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The cold at Christmas barely lasted 3 days. What was so bad about it. Really just Friday and Saturday we're cold but not historic and then we were back above freezing and near 40 degrees on Christmas. I personally would like about 2 weeks of that weather around here just to show people it can still get cold around here and stay a week or two like it used to. If I can't have snow I'll take the cold any day any time. Might not happen again anytime soon but it will happen again and I just hope im around to see it. Getting ready for close to 80 next week and then the bottom to fall out sometime in March and again in April and again in May guaranteed until the miserable heat and humidity overtakes me and I begin to melt until around Halloween or the first week of November as usual. Bring on the wedges. My only hope in the short term to deal with May weather in February.
 
jrips27 said:
GFS has Atlanta getting up to 83 on Thursday which would just be hilarious for February 23rd
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2M temps in the 80's in Feb/March are certainly not normal but it does happen... the 1st week of March/2022 last year - Memphis recorded several days in the upper 70's and a couple days in the low 80's. Then we turned cold in week 2. On 3/11 we picked up 4"-6" of snow with temps in the 20's. The moral of the story is March can be very unpredictable and some of the biggest snows in the Mid-South/ South-East have occurred during this time.

RcA6Bst.png
 
The gfs is slowly trending back to having a cooler shot next weekend at least north of I-20. Still above normal, but not as warm as before. The Carolinas need to watch Wednesday for a cooler day too. The boundary has dropped from Penn down to the NC/VA border now. Also trending a little cooler out in the extended too.
 
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