• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

NoSnowATL said:
With a strong SER it will be dry.
Click to expand...
Probably so and then the drought will be back just in time for summer. We could use a 2 week dry period, but I'm afraid we may get 2-3 months with little rain at all. Something like 93 when a wet early spring turned extremely dry. From June 1 through September 1 that year I measured only .30.
 
Here are some things that could be in our favor to get more cold shots in march than we’ve seen in January and February. A -PNA certainly isn’t great to see but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold around here. Certainly seeing signals of CAD show up but also periods of warmth rivaling 80s at times. Once we introduce more blocking on top of us all we will need is a transient ridge out west to be able to make some magic happen. Maybe it does maybe it doesn’t but that’s all you got if you love winter weather and cold. We are still a long way out tons of things can change but I like the MJO also becoming much more favorable as well so to say we may have more cold shots in march than we’ve had in January and February I don’t think is an absurd statement. 1676387156112.pngD338234E-1DC7-40C9-B2BB-3D6C7DDBAB7B.png48C194F1-15BC-4253-B140-AED6B58E4B2A.jpeg9DCC8725-2F8C-474B-B9B7-1FF67125D4E8.jpegBE800B0B-C22F-4FF3-B2F4-2119490108C8.jpeg
 
ATLwxfan said:
But hopefully dry and sunny if the storm track is further north! A much better spring IMHO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. We’ve seen a strong SER for most of the last 6 weeks and we’ve continued to see plenty of rainfall. We’re about to come out of a 3 year long La Niña and have not seen any major long term droughts in the SE… I wouldn’t bet on that changing
 
Chazwin said:
I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. We’ve seen a strong SER for most of the last 6 weeks and we’ve continued to see plenty of rainfall. We’re about to come out of a 3 year long La Niña and have not seen any major long term droughts in the SE… I wouldn’t bet on that changing
Click to expand...
We could use a little bit of a break in the rain. We’re already at 11.3 for year following almost 10 inches in December. We are water logged. I wish we could save a little bit for summer.
 
Chazwin said:
I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. We’ve seen a strong SER for most of the last 6 weeks and we’ve continued to see plenty of rainfall. We’re about to come out of a 3 year long La Niña and have not seen any major long term droughts in the SE… I wouldn’t bet on that changing
Click to expand...

Yeah I think we have a pacific dominated pattern that’s our base state and I’m not sure ENSO really effects us much. We will be mostly warm with varying degrees of wet. But one can only hope we can get some more dry days in the mix.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
Yeah I think we have a pacific dominated pattern that’s our base state and I’m not sure ENSO really effects us much. We will be mostly warm with varying degrees of wet. But one can only hope we can get some more dry days in the mix.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I still think the ENSO is having a considerable effect. I really think the reason we continue to see an overall wet pattern is because of the warm SSTs in the Gulf and western Atlantic just leading to more water vapor. It’s even been noted that the general storm track has basically been exactly what you would expect with a Niña, but the moisture in flow has been much greater.
 
Bama1980 said:
We could use a little bit of a break in the rain. We’re already at 11.3 for year following almost 10 inches in December. We are water logged. I wish we could save a little bit for summer.
Click to expand...
No doubts there. My yard is basically waterlogged and has puddles in it that have basically been there since early December. I know they’ve been there that long because they completely froze up during the cold snap at Christmas and my dogs would run out there to slide and play on them.
 
weatherfide said:
I didn't see anything interesting on the GFS run. Maybe there will be some interesting members in the ensemble mix.
Click to expand...
I did. Continued increase in -NAO on CMC and GFS in the medium to long range. No matter how you slice it, it will be beneficial in pushing storm track south and blocking high pressures to the north along with squashing the SER somewhat.
 
The Christian McCaffery model is pretty close to how we would have to see things evolve to get a -nao and at least make an attempt to get cold enough.

Just saw the rest of the gfs yep that's what we want
 
SD said:
The Christian McCaffery model is pretty close to how we would have to see things evolve to get a -nao and at least make an attempt to get cold enough.

Just saw the rest of the gfs yep that's what we want
Click to expand...
Just have to hope the NAO doesn't pull a hammy...or a knee, or a foot, or a shoulder, or ribs, or....
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I did. Continued increase in -NAO on CMC and GFS in the medium to long range. No matter how you slice it, it will be beneficial in pushing storm track south and blocking high pressures to the north along with squashing the SER somewhat.
Click to expand...
...for North Carolina and maybe eastern TN, maybe...
 
SD said:
The Christian McCaffery model is pretty close to how we would have to see things evolve to get a -nao and at least make an attempt to get cold enough.

Just saw the rest of the gfs yep that's what we want
Click to expand...

I used to be a huge proponent of the -NAO but, is it just me, or has the -NAO that has shown up the last couple of winters not done squat for us? Not sure why it has just been an epic failure lately.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I used to be a huge proponent of the -NAO but, is it just me, or has the -NAO that has shown up the last couple of winters not done squat for us? Not sure why it has just been an epic failure lately.
Click to expand...
We haven't had a good west based or even real closed -nao since probably March 2018. We had that thing that qualified as a -nao a couple winters ago but it really was never what we needed
 
mrdaddyman said:
I used to be a huge proponent of the -NAO but, is it just me, or has the -NAO that has shown up the last couple of winters not done squat for us? Not sure why it has just been an epic failure lately.
Click to expand...

We've had Greenland ridging, but not much else imo. For a -NAO to be really effective, it needs to trap a legit cold vortex underneath it (50/50 low). That's what CADs us and pushes the storm track south. Our patterns have been missing that I think. We've had baby, wussy ones that haven't worked for us imo.
 
SnowNiner said:
We've had Greenland ridging, but not much else imo. For a -NAO to be really effective, it needs to trap a legit cold vortex underneath it (50/50 low). That's what CADs us and pushes the storm track south. Our patterns have been missing that I think. We've had baby, wussy ones that haven't worked for us imo.
Click to expand...
Biggest issue is we get 50/50's but we never have any legit cold air accessible for it.
 
You don’t see this everyday. Not sure I’ve seen this verbatim look in a few years. Atmospheric napalm.

f7404f2c34019095cf66e85b4f971fef.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This GFS run is better in line with a negative PNA getting the SER to crank. More in line with the pattern persistence on continued warmth.

Lessening snow prospects for I-95 cities too which is fun

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Break out the shorts and the lawnmower! Winter is over!!! And I’m not one one to give up until mid March… but I see the handwriting on the wall this year… you can’t buy a 384 hour GFS fantasy storm! When you can’t buy that… you ain’t gonna get the real thing..
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Break out the shorts and the lawnmower! Winter is over!!! And I’m not one one to give up until mid March… but I see the handwriting on the wall this year… you can’t buy a 384 hour GFS fantasy storm! When you can’t buy that… you ain’t gonna get the real thing..
Click to expand...

It’s a fair point. We’ve had like 2 storm threads total for the season. Even last year we had several more.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
That is my feeling is time we get the ssw to effectively propagate to the troposphere, it will be too late for most. Glad I saw a few winter events if we don't see anything else
 
Itryatgolf said:
That is my feeling is time we get the ssw to effectively propagate to the troposphere, it will be too late for most. Glad I saw a few winter events if we don't see anything else
Click to expand...

I'm increasingly thinking we've seen the peak of winter here too. Absolutely no cold air on the apps through the rest of the month. I mean yeah it can snow big in March here but I'm gonna have to believe it when I see it after the last couple storms somehow missed us. Still down about 6 inches from climo which is sad. If the Christmas storm was the peak that's awful because it was so cold and windy it wasn't even fun
 
So finally getting a chance to look at the teleconnections today and while they don’t look particularly great…I am noticing a little improvement in a couple things. The AO looks to stay squarely positive for the rest of the month… maybe with the SSWE that is taking place right we could see that have some effect on it as we go into March, but that’s also the time that we start to see the SPV getting itself wound up as we approach the equinox. There are some signs that we could see the NAO go negative in early March… this has been the theme it seems like for the the decade. The PNA is going to stay negative but the most noticeable change is on the MJO… it continues to progress steadily and head towards cold phases with the biggest difference now being that there are a lot of ensemble members that actually want to amp it up a bit in those cold phases… if it does that could allow the PNA to be more neutral going into March. Now I don’t know how much it’s going to help things as I think it’s likely that areas outside the mountains and adjacent foothills end up shut out in the snow department the rest of the way, but I still think that more climo favored areas like the mountains, foothills and on up into the western half of VA could still see a decent storm or two before all is said and done. I do think that we will have to deal with plenty of CAD chilly rains
 
Chazwin said:
So finally getting a chance to look at the teleconnections today and while they don’t look particularly great…I am noticing a little improvement in a couple things. The AO looks to stay squarely positive for the rest of the month… maybe with the SSWE that is taking place right we could see that have some effect on it as we go into March, but that’s also the time that we start to see the SPV getting itself wound up as we approach the equinox. There are some signs that we could see the NAO go negative in early March… this has been the theme it seems like for the the decade. The PNA is going to stay negative but the most noticeable change is on the MJO… it continues to progress steadily and head towards cold phases with the biggest difference now being that there are a lot of ensemble members that actually want to amp it up a bit in those cold phases… if it does that could allow the PNA to be more neutral going into March. Now I don’t know how much it’s going to help things as I think it’s likely that areas outside the mountains and adjacent foothills end up shut out in the snow department the rest of the way, but I still think that more climo favored areas like the mountains, foothills and on up into the western half of VA could still see a decent storm or two before all is said and done. I do think that we will have to deal with plenty of CAD chilly rains
Click to expand...
Kinda suprised if this SSW is as intense as forecast that the teleconnections aren't showing the ao/nao tanking but SSW events are tricky
 
No chance of rain in the forecast but it's raining. Why can't that happen when it's cold?
Cloudy, with a low around 45. Southeast wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday
Cloudy through mid morning, then becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
1676457225908.png

EPS looks bad for the first 10 days but there is a little noise in the last 4 days.
 
Itryatgolf said:
Kinda suprised if this SSW is as intense as forecast that the teleconnections aren't showing the ao/nao tanking but SSW events are tricky
Click to expand...
They are tricky. Let’s also remember that it’s not just a forecasted one at this point… it’s actually occurring and being observed. Also they take about two weeks before they might start to have an impact on those two teleconnections. It will be interesting to see since this SSW is now being observed if we start to see a reaction to that in the AO/NAO modeling in the next few days. Either way, there is still some very cold air available in Canada and ensembles to continue to hint at periods of CAD and more snowfall across the Northeast in the next couple weeks
 
Sure the 06z GFS spits out a fantasy storm that won’t verify but at least you can see the power of a -NAO and how rare it is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top