• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

SD said:
Lol congrats @olhausen View attachment 132570
Click to expand...
Not there yet. It needs to go west some more. The euro definitely caught my attention with that last run and the snowfall shifting a lot more to the west. My house is in the red circle right where that red dot is. That said I’m really pulling for the North Carolina folks to get this one as y’all deserve it. I’ve had plenty the last few years so I’m more then willing to sit this one out if you all out east can score. I won’t complain though if it does make it’s way out here ?

3374D054-8DA6-4C65-A831-F84DD07C7EB7.jpeg
 
Central NC, we're not totally out of the game yet. Still need to watch how this evolves.

RAH :

Another round of precipitation looks to come Saturday into Sunday as
a closed mid/upper low develops over the Deep South and tracks
somewhere over the Carolinas. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in pretty
good agreement (considering this is Days 4-5) in showing a more
intense surface low over eastern NC on Sunday that continues to
deepen and lift NE. With such strong height falls and PW values
still around an inch, the system looks quite juicy and could result
in 1-2 inches of precipitation across the region. Since there isn`t
a cold Arctic air mass and only weak transient high pressure to the
north that will be in place as the event begins, this looks to be a
case of the low generating its own cold air with crashing heights
and cold advection on the NW side of the low. Model guidance shows
this may result in temperatures cold enough for some snow or mixed
rain/snow on the back end of the precipitation on Sunday (this kind
of setup usually doesn`t result in much ice). Uncertainty on details
this far out is high, and any frozen precipitation potential over
central NC will be heavily dependent on the exact track of the low.
The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have trended slightly slower and
westward with the low compared to prior runs (over the NC Coastal
Plain as opposed to just off the coast yesterday). This would favor
the western Piedmont into the Mountains for any snow with mainly
rain elsewhere. However, most of the GEFS members and the GEFS mean
are farther east with the low still along the coast, resulting in a
colder solution. What further complicates things is ground
temperatures will still be pretty high due to the recent warmth and
surface temperatures only dropping to near or above freezing, so any
snow may have a hard time sticking. WPC does now have much of
central NC in a 10-30% chance of greater than 0.25" liquid
equivalent of snow/sleet. Also increased POPs a bit on Sunday to
reflect the slower model trend. For now just have slight chance of
snow in the NW Piedmont. Because of the uncertainty in the overall
setup this weekend, confidence in temperatures this weekend is low.
For now, forecast highs continue to be below normal especially on
Sunday when they are only in the 40s in many places, with lows
Saturday night in the 30s.
 
Afternoon discussion from GSP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...An active ext range is in store as a stout
closed upper low transits the southeast states and instigates sfc
cyclogenesis along the Carolina coast. The models are coming into
better agreement with this feature, however, the 12z GFS is still a
bit of an outlier with it/s faster and more eastern track thru Sun.
This low will interact with an existing and moist sfc bndry and it
will also generate it`s own moisture due to good dyno lift/cooling.
So, PoPs will be advertised in the likely range thru Sat night
across the entire FA then drop below 50 percent during the afternoon
Sun. This system still looks to remain mostly a rain/snow event with
some possibility of -fzra Sun morning across the NC escarpment when
a little higher llvl thicknesses get wrapped in off the coast.
Otherwise, the wintry weather will be snow. The best chance for
heavier accumulating snow still looks to occur across the higher
elevations of the NC mtns, while areas east of the mtns could see
low-end snow accums, especially across the I-40 corridor. The
biggest fly in the ointment as far as accum snow east of the mtns
will be sfc temps. Right now, dry and wetbulb temps too high for
much of a direct accum potential, however, any enhancement by elCAPE
and CSI could create snowfall rates high enuf for modest snow
accums. Soundings across the Upstate show all snow, except for a
shallow (100-200 ft) warm layer, so can certainly envision snow
falling thru mid morning Sun, yet mostly melting as it falls. This
system is still a day 4 event and as such will begin an HWO mention
this afternoon, with likely higher-end messaging as the the pattern
and details become more clear over the next couple days. Still
expect Sun/s max temps around normal across the sw/rn zones due to
earlier thickness rises, while maxes are held about 10 degrees below
normal across the NW NC Piedmont. A srn stream high builds in Mon
and helps bring temps back abv normal thru Tue.
 
WSNC said:
Afternoon discussion from GSP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...An active ext range is in store as a stout
closed upper low transits the southeast states and instigates sfc
cyclogenesis along the Carolina coast. The models are coming into
better agreement with this feature, however, the 12z GFS is still a
bit of an outlier with it/s faster and more eastern track thru Sun.
This low will interact with an existing and moist sfc bndry and it
will also generate it`s own moisture due to good dyno lift/cooling.
So, PoPs will be advertised in the likely range thru Sat night
across the entire FA then drop below 50 percent during the afternoon
Sun. This system still looks to remain mostly a rain/snow event with
some possibility of -fzra Sun morning across the NC escarpment when
a little higher llvl thicknesses get wrapped in off the coast.
Otherwise, the wintry weather will be snow. The best chance for
heavier accumulating snow still looks to occur across the higher
elevations of the NC mtns, while areas east of the mtns could see
low-end snow accums, especially across the I-40 corridor. The
biggest fly in the ointment as far as accum snow east of the mtns
will be sfc temps. Right now, dry and wetbulb temps too high for
much of a direct accum potential, however, any enhancement by elCAPE
and CSI could create snowfall rates high enuf for modest snow
accums. Soundings across the Upstate show all snow, except for a
shallow (100-200 ft) warm layer, so can certainly envision snow
falling thru mid morning Sun, yet mostly melting as it falls. This
system is still a day 4 event and as such will begin an HWO mention
this afternoon, with likely higher-end messaging as the the pattern
and details become more clear over the next couple days. Still
expect Sun/s max temps around normal across the sw/rn zones due to
earlier thickness rises, while maxes are held about 10 degrees below
normal across the NW NC Piedmont. A srn stream high builds in Mon
and helps bring temps back abv normal thru Tue.
Click to expand...
“Soundings across the Upstate show all snow, except for a shallow (100-200 ft) warm layer, so can certainly envision snow falling thru mid morning Sun, yet mostly melting as it falls.”

“Right now, dry and wetbulb temps too high for
much of a direct accum potential, however, any enhancement by elCAPE and CSI could create snowfall rates high enuf for modest snow accums.” ?

Honk honk? ☃️ ??
 
I saw 3-4“ of heavy wet daytime snow during a leeside trough event about 10 years ago with temps around 40 degrees. Hard to hang your hat on but I’ve seen rates overcome before. It puked snow that day.
 
Rut Roh _ Don't know if this good or bad!








Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi
·
44m

Big noreaster Sunday and Monday for the Carolinas into the mid Atlantic states with heavy snows from the Western CCarolinas up through much of Western Virginia. Gale force winds on the coast with heavy rain and coastal flooding.
 
Another deep southerly track from the GFS, but it looked like it wasn't quite as strong / deep with the upper low, so the column wasn't as cold on a widespread basis

mAFdAR7.gif
 
So marginal you could easily go rain to snow to rain to sleet to rain to snow .. this is going to be ugly lol but we will try and get it done no matter what .. still a forecasting nightmare imo. You see really heavy bands you’re going to get mixed if not all snow in some localized places which would cause weird travel conditions but I could see those bands being really anywhere with the areas most likely to pick up actual accumulations being towards the mountains .. but still I’ve never seen something as marginal as this BB803700-8C34-4414-ADFD-84041AE7D264.jpeg
 
tractor girl said:
With that NW trend I'm sitting pretty ?

Of course what's more likely to happen is ☔?
Click to expand...
All else being equal, I like where our area is sitting. NW trend rarely doesn't happen. Marginal as heck, but it beats looking at 10MB charts for an SSWE unicorn with my AM coffee for a month.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
All else being equal, I like where our area is sitting. NW trend rarely doesn't happen. Marginal as heck, but it beats looking at 10MB charts for an SSWE unicorn with my AM coffee for a month.
Click to expand...
Considering Augusta’s the bullseye this far out one could consider that points NW will be sitting pretty with this look, if BL temps can cooperate, but if what GFS is saying is true and if I’m interpreting correctly what I’m seeing here so far, rate driven is (as stated before) obviously key since surface temps are not great to begin with?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top