Not ideal 
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Looks like we’re going to get some high pressure in the mix by months end. The moisture has been there so not really worried about that. My main concern is keeping that Atlantic ridge beat back far enough off shore.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Honestly we get a lot of our storms in patterns where we get a cold shot, storm, quick warm up when compared to getting storms and a big freeze afterwards. Wouldn’t surprise me to sneak an event in before we torch
Don’t think anyone should have been expecting a long lasting pattern change of winter possibilities heading into February but we do get a solid 5-7 days of potential to get winter weather after these first two cutters. Then we probably will have to wait until middle to late February for an actual good pattern to set up again
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pattern isn’t great for sure. Went from crap/blowtorch to slightly less crappy overall as we enter February.
There’s still an outside chance imho that the -NAO grows more than forecast and tries to couple with the stratosphere. Even if that occurs, I don’t think it translates to a snowy/cold pattern, but would beat down the torch look we’ve been telegraphing for the last several weeks (which is the usual for La Niña winters) & shorten the amount of time we’re in said pattern. Something to still be hopeful for atm (although that scenario is unlikely)
I still think the Aleutian ridge flips to a trough ~Feb 20th or so & we see the +PNA make a return late in February
As somebody said yesterday, PAIN:
12 NAM for midday on Sunday:
12 NAM for midday on Sunday:
12z RDPS for the same day/time. Big differences for the central/eastern NC/SC folks:
In third setup I'd learn toward the cold guidance along and W of US1
packfan98
Moderator
I don't hate this -
GFS trying to throw us a bone next weekend with a strong clipper, late bloomer off the coast....
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
on one hand this is plausible and generally a look that we've scored with before. on the other hand this winter the second we've flirted with something around this time range, things trend in an objectively negative direction. so good luck.
You know even in the crappiest years we always seem to get something. So this is actually believable (to me).
Cary_Snow95
Member
January 17, 2018 was a similar scenario that greatly over performed. I believe it cutoff and went negative over us
I'd be excited if I lived in Iowa. You know, the NW trend and all
Yep. Sometimes we can score big with these types of systems.
I would love to see/chase snow on NC-12:
January 17-18, 2018 Snow Event
www.weather.gov
Lot of energy flying around after that second system with our cold air firmly in place. Could certainly see a decent clipper type event but I could also see cold and dry as well. Maybe an overrunning event as the cold heads out and the SER flexes. Again short period were working with to score but not impossible.
NCSNOW
Member
This is really close next Wed on Ukmet. Hairline tweak away from some frozen (ice) for a few folks. Probably trend other direction
yeah no doubt that system absolutely rocked. absolute banger storm for the "hi res models pick up qpf better" crowd. it fooled a lot of old school mets that swore by ensembles. once the qpf got sorted out and everyone realized the thermals were fine for Raleigh....
don't know if i see a ton of parallels quite yet
olhausen
Member
This snow would fall from Thursday through Saturday night next week from a series of clippers.
There’s a couple rounds but the majority of snow shown would fall next Saturday.
Not the greatest pattern but I’ll take it over what we’ve been dealing with the last 2 weeks.
There’s a couple rounds but the majority of snow shown would fall next Saturday.
Not the greatest pattern but I’ll take it over what we’ve been dealing with the last 2 weeks.
iGRXY
Member
This has crazy boom potential if we can get something to work in our favor for once.
iGRXY
Member
A deep pool of cold air in the area and over top as well. This is the best shot, IMO until after Feb 15-20.
Can anyone tell if this feature over NC has any precipitation with it at hr 216?
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Not on pivotal... would think some flurries not out of the question but very dry at surface,
I'll take where we are tbh but I bet we come in too flat and it's a dry passage. It wouldn't take a lot to turn what the euro had into what the gfs had.Not on pivotal... would think some flurries not out of the question but very dry at surface,
There's some southern stream energy depicted on all three major models out at day ten where weenies can shape and hope for things to time up just right if it's still there in the coming days. (The CMC phased it out west, but it has the feature too.)
They really went out on a limb here
NCSNOW
Member
I do like how the Pac ridging is going up east of Alaska more toward the Cali/Can coast at Day 10 on the Euro Op. Further east the better. The GFS suite keeps it a notch to far west from Hawaii up to Alaska. Probably transient anyway.
JB latest
Now thats a stratwarm. close to 45 C rise over the pole at 10 mb Similar situation in 2021, but displaced 2 weeks earlier. Current colder pattern is likely to back away feb 5-15 as we go back into the dreaded phase 4/5 MJO but reload after
11:39 AM · Jan 19, 2023·
13.7K
Views
JB latest
Now thats a stratwarm. close to 45 C rise over the pole at 10 mb Similar situation in 2021, but displaced 2 weeks earlier. Current colder pattern is likely to back away feb 5-15 as we go back into the dreaded phase 4/5 MJO but reload after
11:39 AM · Jan 19, 2023·
13.7K
Views
All this looks like is a quick trough before quick retrogression to a -PNA, nothing to get excited over really other than some colder/drier days and a hindrance to some warmer/better days. That Aleutian ridge isn’t doing anything for us. Really Nothing to get excited over on models other than some northern stream driven flurries, we lost that slighty better look (more SWLY flow which would have suggested overrunning). I snore 
It’s apps runner city on the ensembles, lots of rain in our future.
-3 sigma -PNA will definitely get the job done for the southeastern US !!
As in a future southeast ridge
As in a future southeast ridge
Just like every other Nina year...
At this point,
?
I'd take warm or cold dry.
We've had way too much rain.
I'm not an anti rain guy but,
This is too much.
Jan 25-28’ish actually looks like it could be pretty good for TN/NC border counties
Beautiful day ahead on Sunday!! 
ATLwxfan
Member
How do they determine what normal is when we spend 75% of the time AN?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Normal (or average actually) temps are determined by an average of the past 3 decades of 10yr data sets. Currently using this span of time 1991-2020.
Think I have that correct but others here can confirm.