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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

BHAMWX said:
Its cools outside in B'ham. Will there be enough energy to stoke a second round of severe storms ?
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Looks like round 2 has already started so yea for your area it looks better as in a better chance to see severe weather. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the temps raise a few degrees as the front moves in with such a strong south wind.
 
BHAMWX said:
Its cools outside in B'ham. Will there be enough energy to stoke a second round of severe storms ?
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Probably so. Nothing extreme, but cape values will probably reach 600-1000 BHM and southward. Of course the farther south you go the better chance. The Euro was decently strong with low level shear, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we essentially see a redo of this afternoon with less instability/stronger shear. I’m guessing messy supercells at the onset before congealing into a line very late as the 500mb winds parallel the front.
 
Looking over the latest run of the HRRR, it does seem to have pretty good directional shear along with 0-1km helicity over 200 for most of central AL. Definitely not something to sleep on.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA INCLUDING PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the
Southeast, particularly from southern Mississippi into Alabama, far
southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. A strong tornado may
occur overnight.

...Southeastern states...
The influence of a leading wave which moved out of AL and into GA is
currently affecting low-level wind fields over AL, MS and LA this
evening, reducing SRH in some areas. However, the main upper trough
will move toward the MS Valley tonight, with increasing large-scale
ascent over the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F to
lower 70s F will maintain an unstable air mass ahead of a cold
front, with a degree of air mass recovery possible over parts of AL
and perhaps southwest GA. Numerous storms are expected to develop
near the cold front tonight, with an attendant increase in storm
relative helicity with 850 mb winds possibly to 50 kt by 12Z
Wednesday over AL and western GA. Given the increasing wind shear
and favorable ascent, storms may become supercells, either lone or
within a broken line, with a threat of tornadoes. By Wednesday
morning, the severe threat may extend as far east as southwest GA,
and across parts of the FL Panhandle.

...Eastern IL into IN...
With the loss of heating, boundary-layer cooling will gradually
stabilize the air mass, while drier air also pushes eastward just
off the surface with veering 850 mb winds. As such, the threat for
small supercells will be confined to near the surface low track over
the next hour or two, with waning threat over time. Until then, an
isolated brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out this evening.
 
That needs a warning in my eyes. Pretty strong rotation. I know it's at a high elevation from radar but a SVR Strm Warn would be minimal
 

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Hpdb301 said:
That needs a warning in my eyes. Pretty strong rotation. I know it's at a high elevation from radar but a SVR Strm Warn would be minimal
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From Mobile nexrad
 

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I don’t think I’ve ever seen it rain so hard for so long. Relentless downpours here this morning. I’ve got 4 acres of flooded fescue and I’d hate to see my crawl space right now.
 
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tempo47 said:
Yea it’s gotta be 4-5 inches of rain here as well
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Athens airport is reporting about 4.65 inches so far for both days. One of the weather underground stations in Athens has near 6. Been a while since there has been a flash flood warning. Looks like widespread 3 to 5 inched area wide and Definitely over produced vs model projections.
 
I got a text from a friend saying they were sheltering in the basement at the state house In Columbia. I haven’t heard of any reports of damage.
 
BullCityWx said:
had a friend send me a message and tell me they were sheltering in place in one of the state buildings in downtown cola.
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Thankfully that couplet decreased in intensity as it moved along the south side of CAE once the couplet to its SE became the dominant circulation and moved across Calhoun County.
 
Level 2 risk now for a lot of NC. Got a special weather statement for a storm coming my way and lightning alerts from my westher app.
 
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